Global warming and its consequences. Global warming: catastrophe or boon

In recent decades, the problem of global warming has become more and more acute, and if earlier it was some kind of phrase far from everyday life, understandable only to scientists, today many people have experienced this phenomenon.

The climate, the air, the state of nature and people are changing. The temperature of the world ocean (and the thermal forces of the entire earth are consolidated in it and through it) has risen by almost one degree over the past century, and this process has been especially active in the last three decades.

What negative consequences for people and nature are fraught with global warming, at what pace, according to experts' forecasts, it will continue to occur, the reasons for this phenomenon - we'll talk about this.

“Global warming is an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system. Since the 1970s, at least 90% of the warming energy has been stored in the ocean. Despite the dominant role of the ocean in heat storage, the term global warming is often used to refer to an increase in the average air temperature near the surface of the land and ocean.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the average air temperature has risen by 0.74 °C, about two-thirds since 1980. Each of the last three decades has been warmer than the last, with temperatures hotter than any previous decade since 1850." (Wikipedia).

The main negative manifestations of HP: impact on climate (changes in the amount and nature of precipitation: heatwaves, droughts, rainstorms, increased frequency of extreme weather events), sea level rise, expansion of deserts, in the Arctic - retreat of glaciers, permafrost, ocean acidification, extinction of biological species due to change temperatures, reduced yields in hot countries, the spread of tropical diseases outside their usual zone.

In general, there were many assumptions and versions why the GP (Global Warming) began: some shifts in the depths of the oceans, and the destruction of the natural shell of the earth, and mysterious versions.

According to scientists who studied the problem in the early 2000s, the causes of global warming are most likely associated with an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases due to human activity:

« The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) stated that there is a 90% chance that most of the temperature change is due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activities. In 2010, this conclusion was confirmed by the academies of sciences of the main industrialized countries. In the Fifth Report (2013), the IPCC refined this estimate:

“Human influences have been identified on rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures, changing the global hydrological cycle, decreasing snow and ice, rising global mean sea levels, and on several extreme climate events…Evidence of human influence has become even stronger since the AR4. It is highly probable that human influence has been the main cause of the warming observed since the middle of the 20th century…””.

That is, we can say with confidence that the cause of HP is in a person, moreover, some scientists directly call HP as a consequence of human life:

“Global warming is a side process of human existence on this planet, which began with the industrial revolution. Usually, global warming refers to processes that cause human actions on the planet (burning fossil fuels, forcing the greenhouse effect, melting glaciers and, as a result, an increase in temperature on planet Earth), leading to a general increase in temperature.

But do not forget that the Earth has experienced global warming from time to time in its history and without human intervention - it seems that this is a completely natural process that we cause by our unnatural actions. The fight against global warming is given special attention on the agenda of the world, and if we do not want our blue planet to turn into a lifeless Venus, it is necessary to change the course of the global party.”

Now let's discuss the problem in simple language. There are many texts where the authors consider GP from a scientific point of view, with an abundance of specific terms (terms of physics, chemistry, ecology, geophysics, etc.). Few things in these texts are clear to most ordinary people. They don't understand why they care about the "hype" about the scale of the GP when they have pressing problems, such as daily traffic jams on freeways, headaches due to magnetic storms.

Well, what does a grandmother from the suburbs of a Russian metropolis care about CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and cement production? In her garden, the crop is dying due to abnormal weather, drought, hail in the summer. But the GP is directly related to all these seemingly petty and earthly troubles ... but few of the people who are not enlightened will draw cause-and-effect relationships.

Have you noticed that summer has become strange in recent decades, especially years? The strangeness is expressed in the fact that Summer is either short, but with periods of either severe drought, or indefatigable downpours, or long, but cool, with only a couple of hot days, which are now and then interrupted by weather anomalies: hail, snow, hurricanes, strong wind.

But most importantly, it became unbearably stuffy. According to the stories of a former resident of Tajikistan, they used to experience 40 degrees “burning” in their “homeland”, but the heat is not felt, because there is a lot of greenery, the air is soft, there is oxygen. And in our country, why do you think 25 degrees began to be felt so that people faint? There is little greenery, there is a massive deforestation, high-rise buildings are being built on the site of parks.

Cities really turn into a stone jungle. Forests are being cut down outside the city ... and trees, in addition to oxygen, gave us protection from the winds, they were a connecting link in a long logical chain of natural phenomena, if one important component is removed from this chain, all harmony collapses like a house of cards and turns into chaos. Many living species, which are unique in the biological chain, have died from deforestation, which also violates the laws of the natural world.

On the territory of large Russian cities there are kilometer-long areas without green areas, all houses, offices, roads, construction sites, asphalt, paving stones. But by banishing nature from our lives, violating its laws, we upset the balance in everything. So in the summer, the scorching heat begins already from 26 degrees ... This is especially noted by people of an age who have something to compare with ... I remember the beginning of the 90s, when 30 degrees was nothing, and even more so in the village - 40 degrees did not smell stuffiness: the concentration of harmful ozone and other dangerous gases has increased, and their heat simply “boils” and we breathe these fumes .. The people are already getting used to the abnormal heat and hail mixed.

What is the relationship between all described and global warming?

The fact is that very often it seems that a drop in the ocean is just a drop in the ocean, but any sea consists of countless drops, and sometimes, as they say, each drop can be the last.

In fact, the population of the Earth is increasing at a rapid pace, each in itself is just a person incomparable to the scale of the Earth, but 7 billion people are already a crowd that can turn this Earth over, and after all, more and more people are being born and will be born - unless can we expect that the problems of the GP will somehow smooth out? The problems of the GP will only become more complicated and gain momentum, no matter how optimistically they say.

For example, in 1820 there were only 1 billion people on the planet, a little more than a hundred years (1927) it took 2 billion people. In the future, the rate increases: 3 billion already 30 years after setting the mark of 2 billion. Then every 12 -13 years for billion people, today the people on the planet are over 7 billion. Over the past 90 years, the population has increased by 5 billion, although before that, in the entire history, the history of many thousands of years, there were 1-2 billion people. According to forecasts, 8 billion of us will be around 2024.

There are more of us, and not just more, but much more. And it seems that one small person can move in the masses of the world's oceans, but when there are billions of these little people, and they live, breathe, eat, use household goods, cook, etc., they drive cars along the streets, which in the evening they stuff these cars like herrings in a barrel, move the industrialization machine forward, refuel planes, pump oil, pour all sorts of rubbish from factories into rivers. Cellular towers are being installed where no human has ever set foot before, cell phones are being created and sold in millions, billions of copies, in Russian cities the number of cars will soon approach the population, but at the moment at least about 100 million Russian cars are damaged. atmosphere with exhaust gases.

There are more and more cell phones, cars, more and more people enjoy the benefits of civilization, build factories where new generations need to work and create revolutionary goods that can turn the world upside down for the hundred and first time. In addition to poisoning the biosphere, the atmosphere is enhanced by the so-called greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases, according to scientists, are the main cause of HP.

“Greenhouse gases are gases that are believed to cause the global greenhouse effect. The main greenhouse gases, in order of their estimated impact on the Earth's heat balance, are water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, sulfuryl fluoride, halocarbons and nitrous oxide.

Water vapor is the main natural greenhouse gas responsible for more than 60% of the effect.

Sources of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere are volcanic emissions, the vital activity of the biosphere, and human activities. Anthropogenic sources are: combustion of fossil fuels; biomass burning, including deforestation; some industrial processes lead to a significant release of carbon dioxide (for example, the production of cement).

Until recently, it was believed that the greenhouse effect of methane is 25 times stronger than that of carbon dioxide. Now, however, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the "greenhouse potential" of methane is even more dangerous than previously estimated. As follows from a recent IPCC report cited by Die Welt, in terms of 100 years, the greenhouse activity of methane is 28 times stronger than that of carbon dioxide, and in a 20-year perspective - 84 times.

The greenhouse activity of freons is 1300-8500 times higher than that of carbon dioxide. The main source of freon are refrigeration units and aerosols.

So, according to the observations of scientists, the concentration of "bad" (tropospheric) ozone has increased in Europe by 3 times compared to the pre-industrial era. "The increase in ozone concentration near the surface has a strong negative effect on vegetation, damaging the leaves and inhibiting their photosynthetic potential."

In general, the vital activity of a person, his stormy desire to arrange his life with comfort to the maximum, technical progress have led to global natural changes.

Forecasts say: “The likely value of a possible increase in temperature over the 21st century based on climate models will be 1.1-2.9 °C for the minimum emission scenario; 2.4-6.4 °C for the maximum emission scenario. The scatter in the estimates is determined by the values of climate sensitivity to changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases accepted in the models.

Climate change and its consequences will be different in different regions of the world.”

White bears suffer, they lose part of the house due to melting ice ... I guarantee that most people who are far from the problems of the GP learned that there is such a problem from the news announcer as a hackneyed record repeating that the white bears feel bad because of the melting snow due to GP. At first, the people were not afraid that it would affect them, everyone sympathized with the bears. Well, they were also afraid that the ice would melt and flood us all .. And then, when hail the size of a chicken egg began to pour in the summer, and the wind at 30 meters per second was replaced by a downpour like a bucket, this phrase became fashionable among mere mortals.

The most “anomalous” years in the 20th and 21st centuries: 2015, 2014 (maybe 2015 will beat 2016), then 1998, 2005 and 2010, with little difference between each other.

And although the data cited by scientists tell us that earlier, in world history, there were GP phenomena, and that the Earth has excellent compensatory capabilities, the fact remains: the most abnormally hot years have been in recent decades, recent years have become the hottest in general, the growth in the number of population is inevitable, the growth of consumption and use of harmful compounds, the benefits of civilization is inevitable. There have never been such periods in the history of the Earth, at least officially registered.

Slowly but surely, the GP is drowning our land in stuffiness, rain, bad weather ... according to bold forecasts, there is not much left before the disaster. In addition to some kind of violent catastrophe, there is a deterioration in the quality of life, natural conditions, as a result of the health of the population, a reduction in life.

Nevertheless, some measures to control the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere were taken, namely, the 1997 Kyoto Agreement became such measures. For example, Russia even overfulfilled the plan. However, despite this, the situation with global warming is progressing in a negative direction. Although if it were not for the protocol, perhaps we would all be drowning on a small piece of ice floe in the world's oceans.

“The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement, an additional document to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), adopted in Kyoto (Japan) in December 1997. It obliges developed countries and countries with economies in transition to reduce or stabilize greenhouse gas emissions.”

The countries that signed the agreement undertook to limit, reduce, during the period from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2012, the amount of emissions of 6 types of gases (carbon dioxide, methane, fluorocarbons, fluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride) by 5.2% compared to the level 1990.

“The main obligations were assumed by the industrial countries:

EU must cut emissions by 8%

USA - by 7%

Japan and Canada - by 6%

The countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltics - an average of 8%

Developing countries, including China and India, made no commitments.”

In 2015, at the Global Development Summit of the UN General Assembly, Sergey Lavrov made a statement that Russia has exceeded the plan under the Kita Agreement: our country has reduced emissions from the energy sector by 37% over the past 20 years.

In 2011, the protocol was extended until the adoption of a new agreement.

A lot is being said and written about global warming. Almost every day new hypotheses appear, old ones are refuted. We are constantly frightened by what awaits us in the future (I well remember the comment of one of the readers of the magazine www.site “We have been frightened for so long and terribly that it is no longer scary”). Many statements and articles frankly contradict each other, misleading us. Global warming has already become a “global confusion” for many, and some have completely lost all interest in the problem of climate change. Let's try to systematize the available information by creating a kind of mini encyclopedia on global warming.

1. Global warming- the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean, due to various reasons (an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, changes in solar or volcanic activity, etc.). Very often as a synonym global warming use the phrase "Greenhouse effect", but there is a slight difference between these concepts. Greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean due to an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.) in the Earth's atmosphere. These gases play the role of a film or glass of a greenhouse (greenhouse), they freely pass the sun's rays to the Earth's surface and retain heat leaving the planet's atmosphere. We will discuss this process in more detail below.

For the first time, global warming and the greenhouse effect were discussed in the 60s of the XX century, and at the UN level the problem of global climate change was first voiced in 1980. Since then, many scientists have been racking their brains over this problem, often mutually refuting each other's theories and assumptions.

2. Ways to obtain information on climate change

Existing technologies make it possible to reliably judge the climate changes that are taking place. Scientists use the following “tools” to substantiate their theories of climate change:
— historical annals and chronicles;
— meteorological observations;
— satellite measurements of ice area, vegetation, climatic zones and atmospheric processes;
– analysis of paleontological (remains of ancient animals and plants) and archaeological data;
— analysis of sedimentary oceanic rocks and river sediments;
— analysis of ancient ice in the Arctic and Antarctica (ratio of O16 and O18 isotopes);
— measuring the rate of melting of glaciers and permafrost, the intensity of iceberg formation;
— observation of the sea currents of the Earth;

— observation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and the ocean;
— observation of changes in the areas (habitats) of living organisms;
– analysis of the annual rings of trees and the chemical composition of tissues of plant organisms.

3. Facts about global warming

Paleontological evidence suggests that Earth's climate has not been constant. Warm periods were replaced by cold glacial ones. During warm periods, the average annual temperature of the Arctic latitudes rose to 7-13°C, and the temperature of the coldest month of January was 4-6 degrees, i.e. climatic conditions in our Arctic differed little from the climate of modern Crimea. The warm periods were sooner or later replaced by cooling periods, during which the ice reached modern tropical latitudes.

Man has also witnessed a number of climatic changes. At the beginning of the second millennium (11-13 centuries), historical chronicles indicate that a large area of Greenland was not covered with ice (which is why the Norwegian navigators dubbed it "green land"). Then the climate of the Earth became harsher, and Greenland was almost completely covered with ice. In the 15th-17th centuries, severe winters reached their peak. The severity of the winters of that time is evidenced by many historical chronicles, as well as works of art. Thus, the well-known painting by the Dutch artist Jan Van Goyen “Skaters” (1641) depicts mass skating along the canals of Amsterdam; at present, the canals of Holland have not been frozen for a long time. In medieval winters, even the River Thames in England froze over. In the 18th century, a slight warming was noted, which reached its maximum in 1770. The 19th century was again marked by another cold snap, which continued until 1900, and from the beginning of the 20th century, a rather rapid warming had already begun. Already by 1940, the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea had halved, in the Barents Sea - by almost a third, and in the Soviet sector of the Arctic, the total ice area had decreased by almost half (1 million km 2). During this period of time, even ordinary ships (not icebreakers) calmly sailed along the northern sea route from the western to eastern outskirts of the country. It was then that a significant increase in the temperature of the Arctic seas was recorded, a significant retreat of glaciers in the Alps and the Caucasus was noted. The total ice area of the Caucasus has decreased by 10%, and the thickness of the ice has decreased in places by as much as 100 meters. The temperature increase in Greenland was 5°C, while in Svalbard it was 9°C.

In 1940, the warming was replaced by a short-term cooling, which was soon replaced by another warming, and since 1979, a rapid increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere began, which caused another acceleration in the melting of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and an increase in winter temperatures in temperate latitudes. So, over the past 50 years, the thickness of the Arctic ice has decreased by 40%, and the inhabitants of a number of Siberian cities have begun to note for themselves that severe frosts have long been a thing of the past. The average winter temperature in Siberia has risen by almost ten degrees over the past fifty years. In some regions of Russia, the frost-free period has increased by two to three weeks. The habitat of many living organisms has shifted northward following the growing average winter temperatures, we will talk about these and others below. Old photographs of glaciers (all photos were taken in the same month) testify to global climate change especially clearly.

In general, over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 0.3–0.8 ° C, the area of snow cover in the northern hemisphere has decreased by 8%, and the level of the World Ocean has risen by an average of 10–20 centimeters. These facts are of some concern. Whether global warming will stop or the further increase in the average annual temperature on Earth will continue, the answer to this question will appear only when the causes of the ongoing climate changes are precisely established.

4. Causes of global warming

Hypothesis 1- The cause of global warming is a change in solar activity
All ongoing climatic processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in the activity of the Sun will certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. There are 11-year, 22-year, and 80-90-year (Gleisberg) cycles of solar activity.
It is likely that the observed global warming is due to the next increase in solar activity, which may decline again in the future.

Hypothesis 2 - The cause of global warming is a change in the angle of the Earth's axis of rotation and its orbit
The Yugoslav astronomer Milanković suggested that cyclic climate changes are largely due to a change in the orbit of the Earth's rotation around the Sun, as well as a change in the angle of inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation with respect to the Sun. Such orbital changes in the position and movement of the planet cause a change in the radiation balance of the Earth, and hence its climate. Milankovitch, guided by his theory, quite accurately calculated the times and length of ice ages in the past of our planet. Climatic changes caused by a change in the Earth's orbit usually occur over tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. The relatively rapid climate change observed at the present time, apparently, occurs as a result of the action of some other factors.

Hypothesis 3 - The culprit of global climate change is the ocean
The World Ocean is a huge inertial accumulator of solar energy. It largely determines the direction and speed of movement of warm oceanic and air masses on Earth, which greatly affect the climate of the planet. At present, the nature of heat circulation in the water column of the ocean has been little studied. So it is known that the average temperature of the ocean waters is 3.5°C, and the land surface is 15°C, so the intensity of heat exchange between the ocean and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climatic changes. In addition, a large amount of CO 2 (about 140 trillion tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere) and a number of other greenhouse gases are dissolved in the ocean waters; as a result of certain natural processes, these gases can enter the atmosphere, significantly affecting on the Earth's climate.

Hypothesis 4 - Volcanic activity
Volcanic activity is a source of sulfuric acid aerosols and a large amount of carbon dioxide entering the Earth's atmosphere, which can also significantly affect the Earth's climate. Large eruptions are initially accompanied by cooling due to the entry of sulfuric acid aerosols and soot particles into the Earth's atmosphere. Subsequently, the CO 2 released during the eruption causes an increase in the average annual temperature on Earth. The subsequent long-term decrease in volcanic activity contributes to an increase in the transparency of the atmosphere, and hence to an increase in temperature on the planet.

Hypothesis 5 - Unknown interactions between the Sun and the planets of the solar system
In the phrase "Solar system" the word "system" is not in vain mentioned, and in any system, as you know, there are connections between its components. Therefore, it is possible that the relative position of the planets and the Sun can affect the distribution and strength of gravitational fields, solar energy, and other types of energy. All connections and interactions between the Sun, planets and the Earth have not yet been studied and it is possible that they have a significant impact on the processes occurring in the Earth's atmosphere and hydrosphere.

Hypothesis 6 – Climate change can happen on its own without any external influences and human activities
Planet Earth is such a large and complex system with a huge number of structural elements that its global climatic characteristics can change significantly without any changes in solar activity and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Various mathematical models show that over the course of a century, fluctuations in the temperature of the surface air layer (fluctuations) can reach 0.4°C. As a comparison, we can cite the body temperature of a healthy person, which varies during the day and even hours.

Hypothesis 7 - Man is to blame
The most popular hypothesis to date. The high rate of climate change that has taken place in recent decades can indeed be explained by the ever-increasing intensification of anthropogenic activity, which has a significant impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere of our planet in the direction of increasing the content of greenhouse gases in it. Indeed, an increase in the average air temperature of the lower layers of the Earth's atmosphere by 0.8 ° C over the past 100 years is too high a rate for natural processes; earlier in the history of the Earth, such changes occurred over thousands of years. The last decades have added even more weight to this argument, since changes in the average air temperature have occurred at an even greater pace - 0.3-0.4 ° C over the past 15 years!

It is likely that the current global warming is the result of many factors. You can familiarize yourself with the rest of the hypotheses of ongoing global warming.

5.Man and the Greenhouse Effect

Adherents of the latter hypothesis assign a key role in global warming to man, who radically changes the composition of the atmosphere, contributing to the growth of the greenhouse effect of the Earth's atmosphere.

Greenhouse effect in the atmosphere of our planet is caused by the fact that the flow of energy in the infrared range of the spectrum, rising from the surface of the Earth, is absorbed by the molecules of the gases of the atmosphere, and radiated back in different directions, as a result, half of the energy absorbed by the molecules of greenhouse gases returns back to the surface of the Earth, causing it to warm up. It should be noted that the greenhouse effect is a natural atmospheric phenomenon. If there were no greenhouse effect on Earth at all, then the average temperature on our planet would be about -21 ° C, and so, thanks to greenhouse gases, it is + 14 ° C. Therefore, purely theoretically, human activity, associated with the release of greenhouse gases into the Earth's atmosphere, should lead to further heating of the planet.

Let's take a closer look at greenhouse gases that can potentially cause global warming. The number one greenhouse gas is water vapor, contributing 20.6°C to the existing atmospheric greenhouse effect. In second place is CO 2 , its contribution is about 7.2°C. The increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is now of the greatest concern, since the growing active use of hydrocarbons by mankind will continue in the near future. Over the past two and a half centuries (since the beginning of the industrial era), the content of CO 2 in the atmosphere has already increased by about 30%.

In third place on our "greenhouse rating" is ozone, its contribution to total global warming is 2.4 °C. Unlike other greenhouse gases, human activity, on the contrary, causes a decrease in the ozone content in the Earth's atmosphere. Next comes nitrous oxide, its contribution to the greenhouse effect is estimated at 1.4°C. The content of nitrous oxide in the planet's atmosphere tends to increase; over the past two and a half centuries, the concentration of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere has increased by 17%. A large amount of nitrous oxide enters the Earth's atmosphere as a result of burning various wastes. Methane completes the list of major greenhouse gases; its contribution to the total greenhouse effect is 0.8°C. The content of methane in the atmosphere is growing very rapidly, over two and a half centuries, this growth amounted to 150%. The main sources of methane in the Earth's atmosphere are decaying waste, cattle, and the decay of natural compounds containing methane. Of particular concern is the fact that the ability to absorb infrared radiation per unit mass of methane is 21 times higher than that of carbon dioxide.

The greatest role in the global warming taking place is assigned to water vapor and carbon dioxide. They account for more than 95% of the total greenhouse effect. It is thanks to these two gaseous substances that the Earth's atmosphere is heated by 33 ° C. Anthropogenic activity has the greatest impact on the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, and the content of water vapor in the atmosphere grows following the temperature on the planet, due to an increase in evaporation. The total technogenic emission of CO 2 into the Earth's atmosphere is 1.8 billion tons / year, the total amount of carbon dioxide that binds the Earth's vegetation as a result of photosynthesis is 43 billion tons / year, but almost all of this amount of carbon is the result of plant respiration, fires, processes decomposition again finds itself in the atmosphere of the planet and only 45 million tons / year of carbon is deposited in plant tissues, land swamps and the depths of the ocean. These figures show that human activity has the potential to be a tangible force influencing the Earth's climate.

6. Factors accelerating and slowing down global warming

Planet Earth is such a complex system that there are many factors that directly or indirectly affect the climate of the planet, accelerating or slowing down global warming.

Factors accelerating global warming:
+ emission of CO 2 , methane, nitrous oxide as a result of human activities;
+ decomposition, due to temperature increase, of geochemical sources of carbonates with the release of CO 2 . The earth's crust contains 50,000 times more carbon dioxide in a bound state than in the atmosphere;
+ an increase in the content of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere, due to an increase in temperature, and hence the evaporation of water from the oceans;
+ release of CO 2 by the World Ocean due to its heating (the solubility of gases decreases with increasing water temperature). For each degree increase in water temperature, the solubility of CO2 in it drops by 3%. The World Ocean contains 60 times more CO 2 than the Earth's atmosphere (140 trillion tons);
+ decrease in the Earth's albedo (the reflectivity of the planet's surface), due to the melting of glaciers, changes in climatic zones and vegetation. The sea surface reflects much less sunlight than the polar glaciers and snows of the planet, mountains devoid of glaciers also have a lower albedo, woody vegetation moving north has a lower albedo than tundra plants. Over the past five years, the Earth's albedo has already decreased by 2.5%;
+ release of methane during permafrost melting;
+ decomposition of methane hydrates - crystalline icy compounds of water and methane contained in the subpolar regions of the Earth.

Factors slowing down global warming:
- global warming causes a slowdown in the speed of ocean currents, a slowdown in the warm current of the Gulf Stream will cause a decrease in temperature in the Arctic;
- with an increase in temperature on Earth, evaporation increases, and hence cloudiness, which is a certain kind of barrier to the path of sunlight. Cloud area increases by approximately 0.4% for every degree of warming;
- with the growth of evaporation, the amount of precipitation increases, which contributes to the waterlogging of lands, and swamps, as you know, are one of the main depots of CO 2 ;
- an increase in temperature will contribute to the expansion of the area of \u200b\u200bwarm seas, and hence the expansion of the range of mollusks and coral reefs, these organisms are actively involved in the deposition of CO 2, which goes to the construction of shells;
— an increase in the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere stimulates the growth and development of plants, which are active acceptors (consumers) of this greenhouse gas.

7. Possible scenarios for global climate change

Global climate change is very complex, so modern science cannot give an unambiguous answer about what awaits us in the near future. There are many scenarios for the development of the situation.

Scenario 1 – global warming will occur gradually
The Earth is a very large and complex system, consisting of a large number of interconnected structural components. The planet has a mobile atmosphere, the movement of air masses of which distributes thermal energy across the latitudes of the planet, the Earth has a huge accumulator of heat and gases - the World Ocean (the ocean accumulates 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere) Changes in such a complex system cannot occur quickly. Centuries and millennia will pass before any tangible climate change can be judged.

Scenario 2 - global warming will occur relatively quickly
The most "popular" scenario at present. According to various estimates, over the past hundred years, the average temperature on our planet has increased by 0.5-1 ° C, the concentration of CO 2 has increased by 20-24%, and methane by 100%. In the future, these processes will continue and by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature of the Earth's surface may increase from 1.1 to 6.4°C compared to 1990 (according to IPCC forecasts, from 1.4 to 5.8°C). Further melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice can accelerate the processes of global warming due to changes in the planet's albedo. According to some scientists, only the planet's ice caps, due to the reflection of solar radiation, cool our Earth by 2 ° C, and the ice covering the surface of the ocean significantly slows down the heat exchange processes between the relatively warm ocean waters and the colder surface layer of the atmosphere. In addition, over the ice caps, there is practically no main greenhouse gas - water vapor, since it is frozen out.
Global warming will be accompanied by rising sea levels. From 1995 to 2005, the level of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm, instead of the predicted 2 cm. If the level of the World Ocean continues to rise at the same rate, then by the end of the 21st century, the total rise in its level will be 30-50 cm, which will cause partial flooding of many coastal areas, especially the densely populated coast of Asia. It should be remembered that about 100 million people on Earth live at an altitude of less than 88 centimeters above sea level.
In addition to rising sea levels, global warming affects the strength of the winds and the distribution of precipitation on the planet. As a result, the frequency and scale of various natural disasters (storms, hurricanes, droughts, floods) will increase on the planet.
Currently, 2% of all land suffers from drought, according to some scientists, by 2050, up to 10% of all continents will be covered by drought. In addition, the seasonal distribution of precipitation will change.
Rainfall and storm frequency will increase in northern Europe and the western United States, and hurricanes will rage twice as often as in the 20th century. The climate of Central Europe will become changeable, in the heart of Europe winters will become warmer and summers rainier. Eastern and Southern Europe, including the Mediterranean, will face drought and heat.

Scenario 3 - Global warming in some parts of the Earth will be replaced by a short-term cooling
It is known that one of the factors in the occurrence of ocean currents is the temperature gradient (difference) between arctic and tropical waters. The melting of polar ice contributes to an increase in the temperature of the Arctic waters, which means that it causes a decrease in the temperature difference between tropical and Arctic waters, which will inevitably lead to a slowdown in the future in the future.
One of the most famous warm currents is the Gulf Stream, due to which in many countries of Northern Europe the average annual temperature is 10 degrees higher than in other similar climatic zones of the Earth. It is clear that the shutdown of this ocean heat conveyor will greatly affect the Earth's climate. Already, the current of the Gulf Stream has become weaker by 30% compared to 1957. Mathematical modeling has shown that in order to completely stop the Gulf Stream, it will be enough to increase the temperature by 2-2.5 degrees. At present, the temperature of the North Atlantic has already warmed up by 0.2 degrees compared to the 70s. If the Gulf Stream stops, the average annual temperature in Europe will decrease by 1 degree by 2010, and after 2010 the further increase in the average annual temperature will continue. Other mathematical models "promise" a more severe cooling in Europe.
According to these mathematical calculations, the complete stop of the Gulf Stream will occur in 20 years, as a result of which the climate of Northern Europe, Ireland, Iceland and the UK may become colder by 4-6 degrees than the present, rains will intensify and storms will become more frequent. Cooling will also affect the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and the north of the European part of Russia. After 2020-2030, warming in Europe will resume according to scenario No. 2.

Scenario 4 – Global warming will be replaced by global cooling
The stoppage of the Gulf Stream and other oceanic ones will cause the onset of the next ice age on Earth.

Scenario 5 - Greenhouse catastrophe
A greenhouse catastrophe is the most “unpleasant” scenario for the development of global warming processes. The author of the theory is our scientist Karnaukhov, its essence is as follows. An increase in the average annual temperature on Earth, due to an increase in the content of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth's atmosphere, will cause the transition of CO 2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere, and will also provoke the decomposition of sedimentary carbonate rocks with additional release of carbon dioxide, which, in turn, will raise the temperature on Earth even more. higher, which will entail further decomposition of carbonates lying in the deeper layers of the earth's crust (the ocean contains 60 times more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere, and almost 50,000 times more in the earth's crust). Glaciers will melt intensively, reducing the Earth's albedo. Such a rapid increase in temperature will contribute to the intensive flow of methane from the melting permafrost, and an increase in temperature to 1.4–5.8 ° C by the end of the century will contribute to the decomposition of methane hydrates (icy compounds of water and methane), concentrated mainly in cold places on the Earth. Given that methane is 21 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO 2 , the temperature increase on Earth would be catastrophic. To better imagine what will happen to the Earth, it is best to pay attention to our neighbor in the solar system - the planet Venus. With the same atmospheric parameters as on Earth, the temperature on Venus should be only 60 ° C higher than the Earth's (Venus is closer to the Earth than the Sun), i.e. be in the region of 75 ° C, in reality, the temperature on Venus is almost 500 ° C. Most of the carbonate and methane-containing compounds on Venus were destroyed a long time ago with the release of carbon dioxide and methane. At present, the atmosphere of Venus consists of 98% CO 2, which leads to an increase in the temperature of the planet by almost 400 ° C
If global warming follows the same scenario as on Venus, then the temperature of the surface layers of the atmosphere on Earth can reach 150 degrees. An increase in the Earth's temperature even by 50°C will put an end to human civilization, and an increase in temperature by 150°C will cause the death of almost all living organisms on the planet.

According to Karnaukhov's optimistic scenario, if the amount of CO 2 entering the atmosphere remains at the same level, then the temperature of 50°C on Earth will be established in 300 years, and 150°C in 6000 years. Unfortunately, progress cannot be stopped; every year, CO 2 emissions are only growing. According to a realistic scenario, according to which CO2 emissions will grow at the same rate, doubling every 50 years, the temperature of 50 2 on Earth will already be established in 100 years, and 150 ° C in 300 years.

8. Consequences of global warming

An increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere will be more strongly felt over the continents than over the oceans, which in the future will cause a radical restructuring of the natural zones of the continents. The shift of a number of zones to the Arctic and Antarctic latitudes is already being noted.

The permafrost zone has already shifted hundreds of kilometers to the north. Some scientists argue that due to the rapid thawing of permafrost and the rise in the level of the World Ocean, in recent years the Arctic Ocean is advancing on land at an average speed of 3-6 meters per summer, and on the Arctic islands and capes, ice-rich rocks are destroyed and absorbed by the sea during the warm period of the year at speeds up to 20-30 meters. Entire Arctic islands disappear completely; so already in the 21st century, the island of Muostakh near the mouth of the Lena River will disappear.

With a further increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere, the tundra may almost completely disappear in the European part of Russia and will remain only on the Arctic coast of Siberia.

The taiga zone will shift to the north by 500-600 kilometers and will be reduced in area by almost a third, the area of deciduous forests will increase by 3-5 times, and if moisture allows, the deciduous forest belt will stretch in a continuous strip from the Baltic to the Pacific Ocean.

The forest-steppes and steppes will also move north and cover the Smolensk, Kaluga, Tula, Ryazan regions, coming close to the southern borders of the Moscow and Vladimir regions.

Global warming will also affect animal habitats. The change of habitats of living organisms is already noted in many parts of the globe. The gray-headed thrush has already begun to nest in Greenland, starlings and swallows have appeared in subarctic Iceland, and the white heron has appeared in Britain. The warming of the Arctic ocean waters is especially noticeable. Now many commercial fish are found where they were not before. Cod and herring appeared in the waters of Greenland in sufficient quantities for their commercial fishing, in the waters of Great Britain - the inhabitants of the southern latitudes: red trout, big-headed turtle, in the Far Eastern Gulf of Peter the Great - the Pacific sardine, and in the Sea of Okhotsk mackerel and saury appeared. The range of the brown bear in North America has already moved north to such an extent that they began to appear, and in the southern part of their range, brown bears stopped hibernating altogether.

An increase in temperature creates favorable conditions for the development of diseases, which is facilitated not only by high temperature and humidity, but also by the expansion of the habitat of a number of animal carriers of diseases. By the middle of the 21st century, the incidence of malaria is expected to increase by 60%. The increased development of microflora and the lack of clean drinking water will contribute to the growth of infectious intestinal diseases. The rapid multiplication of microorganisms in the air can increase the incidence of asthma, allergies and various respiratory diseases.

Thanks to global climate change, the next half century can. Already, polar bears, walruses and seals are being deprived of an important component of their habitat - Arctic ice.

Global warming for our country entails both pluses and minuses. Winters will become less severe, lands with a climate suitable for agriculture will move further north (in the European part of Russia to the White and Kara Seas, in Siberia to the Arctic Circle), in many parts of the country it will be possible to grow more southern crops and early ripening of the former. It is expected that by 2060 the average temperature in Russia will reach 0 degrees Celsius, now it is -5.3 degrees Celsius.

Unpredictable consequences will entail the thawing of permafrost, as you know, permafrost covers 2/3 of the area of Russia and 1/4 of the area of the entire Northern Hemisphere. There are many cities on the permafrost of the Russian Federation, thousands of kilometers of pipelines, as well as roads and railways have been laid (80% of BAM passes through permafrost). . Large areas may become unsuitable for human life. Some scientists express concern that Siberia may even be cut off from the European part of Russia and become the object of claims of other countries.

Other countries of the world are also waiting for drastic changes. In general, according to most models, winter precipitation is expected to increase in high latitudes (above 50°N and South), as well as in temperate latitudes. In southern latitudes, on the contrary, a decrease in the amount of precipitation is expected (up to 20%), especially in summer. The countries of Southern Europe, which are engaged in tourism, expect big economic losses. Summer dry heat and winter rain showers will reduce the “ardor” of those who want to relax in Italy, Greece, Spain and France. For many other countries living off tourists, far from the best of times will also come. Fans of skiing in the Alps will be disappointed, there will be “tension” with snow in the mountains. In many countries of the world, living conditions are deteriorating significantly. According to UN estimates, by the middle of the 21st century there will be up to 200 million climate refugees in the world.

9. Ways to prevent global warming

There is an opinion that a person will try in the future, how successful it will be, time will tell. If humanity does not succeed, and it does not change its way of life, then the fate of dinosaurs awaits the species Homo sapiens.

Even now, advanced minds are thinking about how to level the processes of global warming. Suggestions include breeding new varieties of plants and tree species whose leaves have a higher albedo, painting roofs white, installing mirrors in near-earth orbit, sheltering glaciers from the sun's rays, etc. A lot of effort is being spent on replacing traditional forms of energy based on the combustion of carbon raw materials with non-traditional ones, such as the production of solar panels, windmills, the construction of PES (tidal power plants), hydroelectric power stations, nuclear power plants. Offered such as, as well as a number of others. Energy hunger and fear of threatening global warming does wonders for the human brain. New and original ideas are born almost every day.

Much attention is paid to the rational use of energy resources.
To reduce CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere, the efficiency of engines improves, they are produced.

In the future, it is planned to pay great attention to, as well as directly from the atmosphere through the use of ingenious, pumping carbon dioxide many kilometers deep in the ocean, where it will dissolve in the water column. Most of the listed ways to "neutralize" CO 2 are very expensive. Currently, the cost of capturing one ton of CO 2 is approximately 100-300 dollars, which exceeds the market value of a ton of oil, and given that the combustion of one ton produces approximately three tons of CO 2, then many methods of capturing carbon dioxide are not yet relevant. Previously proposed methods of sequestering carbon by planting trees are recognized as untenable due to the fact that most of the carbon as a result of forest fires and decomposition of organic matter goes back into the atmosphere.

Particular attention is paid to the development of legislative regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. At present, many countries of the world have adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). The latter has not been ratified by a number of countries that account for the lion's share of CO 2 emissions. So the United States accounts for about 40% of all emissions (recently, information has appeared that). Unfortunately, as long as a person puts his own well-being at the forefront, no progress is expected in addressing global warming issues.

A.V. Yegoshin

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Like the glass walls of a greenhouse, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and water vapor allow the sun to heat our planet and at the same time prevent infrared radiation reflected from the earth's surface from escaping into space. All these gases are responsible for maintaining the temperature acceptable for life on earth. However, the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide and water vapor in the atmosphere is another global environmental problem, called global warming (or the greenhouse effect).

Causes of global warming

During the 20th century, the average temperature on earth increased by 0.5 - 1?C. The main cause of global warming is considered to be an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to an increase in the volume of fossil fuels burned by people (coal, oil and their derivatives). However, according to Aleksey Kokorin, head of climate programs at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Russia, “the largest amount of greenhouse gases is generated as a result of the operation of power plants and methane emissions during the extraction and delivery of energy resources, while road transport or the burning of associated petroleum gas in torches do relatively little harm to the environment.”

Other prerequisites for global warming are overpopulation of the planet, deforestation, ozone depletion and littering. However, not all ecologists place the responsibility for the increase in average annual temperatures entirely on anthropogenic activities. Some believe that the natural increase in the abundance of oceanic plankton also contributes to global warming, leading to an increase in the concentration of the same carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Consequences of the greenhouse effect

If the temperature during the 21st century increases by another 1 ? C - 3.5 ? C, as scientists predict, the consequences will be very sad:

the level of the world ocean will rise (due to the melting of polar ice), the number of droughts will increase and the process of land desertification will intensify,

many species of plants and animals adapted to existence in a narrow range of temperatures and humidity will disappear,

hurricanes will increase.

To slow down the process of global warming, according to environmentalists, the following measures will help:

rising prices for fossil fuels,

replacement of fossil fuels with environmentally friendly ones (solar energy, wind energy and sea currents),

development of energy-saving and waste-free technologies,

taxation of emissions into the environment,

minimization of methane losses during its production, transportation through pipelines, distribution in cities and villages and use at heat supply stations and power plants,

introduction of carbon dioxide absorption and binding technologies,

tree planting,

reduction in family size

environmental education,

application of phytomelioration in agriculture.

Global Environmental Issue #4: Acid Rain

Acid rain, containing fuel combustion products, also poses a threat to the environment, human health, and even to the integrity of architectural monuments.

The effects of acid rain

Solutions of sulfuric and nitric acids, aluminum and cobalt compounds contained in polluted precipitation and fog pollute the soil and water bodies, adversely affect vegetation, causing dry tops of deciduous trees and oppressing conifers. Due to acid rain, crop yields are falling, people are drinking water enriched with toxic metals (mercury, cadmium, lead), marble architectural monuments are turning into gypsum and eroding.

Solving an environmental problem

In order to save nature and architecture from acid rain, it is necessary to minimize the emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere.

An article about global warming. What is happening now in the world on a global scale, what consequences may be due to global warming. At times it is worth looking at what WE have brought the world to.

What is global warming?

Global warming is a slow and gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, which is currently observed. Global warming is a fact that is pointless to argue with, and that is why it is necessary to approach it soberly and objectively.

Causes of global warming

According to scientific data, global warming can be caused by many factors:

Volcanic eruptions;

Behavior of the World Ocean (typhoons, hurricanes, etc.);

Solar Activity;

Earth's magnetic field;

Human activity. The so-called anthropogenic factor. The idea is supported by the majority of scientists, public organizations and the media, which does not at all mean its unshakable truth.

Most likely, it will turn out that each of these components contributes to global warming.

What is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect has been observed by any of us. In greenhouses, the temperature is always higher than outside; in a closed car on a sunny day, the same thing is observed. On the scale of the globe, everything is the same. Part of the solar heat received by the Earth's surface cannot escape back into space, since the atmosphere acts like polyethylene in a greenhouse. If it were not for the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth's surface should be about -18°C, but in reality it is about +14°C. How much heat remains on the planet directly depends on the composition of the air, which just changes under the influence of the factors described above (What causes global warming?); namely, the content of greenhouse gases is changing, which include water vapor (responsible for more than 60% of the effect), carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide), methane (causes the most warming) and a number of others.

Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory chimneys and other man-made sources of pollution together emit about 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases per year. Animal husbandry, fertilizer application, coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. About half of all greenhouse gases emitted by mankind remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years have been caused by the use of oil, natural gas and coal. Much of the rest is caused by landscape changes, primarily deforestation.

What facts prove global warming?

Rising temperatures

The temperature has been documented for about 150 years. It is generally accepted that it has risen by about 0.6°C over the past century, although there is still no clear methodology for determining this parameter, and there is also no confidence in the adequacy of data from a century ago. Rumor has it that warming has been sharp since 1976, the beginning of rapid industrial activity of man and reached its maximum acceleration in the second half of the 90s. But even here there are discrepancies between ground-based and satellite observations.

Rising sea levels

As a result of warming and melting of glaciers in the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland, the water level on the planet has risen by 10-20 cm, possibly more.

Melting glaciers

Well, what can I say, global warming is really the reason for the melting of glaciers, and photos will confirm this better than words.

The Upsala Glacier in Patagonia (Argentina) used to be one of the largest glaciers in South America, but is now disappearing at 200 meters per year.

Rhoun glacier, Valais, Switzerland rose up to 450 meters.

Portage Glacier in Alaska.

1875 photo courtesy H. Slupetzky/University of Salzburg Pasterze.

Relationship between global warming and global cataclysms

Global warming prediction methods

Global warming and its development are predicted mainly with the help of computer models, based on the collected data on temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and much more. Of course, the accuracy of such forecasts leaves much to be desired and, as a rule, does not exceed 50%, and the further scientists swing, the less likely the prediction will come true.

Also, ultra-deep drilling of glaciers is used to obtain data, sometimes samples are taken from a depth of up to 3000 meters. This ancient ice contains information about the temperature, solar activity, and the intensity of the Earth's magnetic field at that time. The information is used for comparison with current indicators.

What measures are being taken to stop global warming?

To date, the main world agreement to combat global warming is the Kyoto Protocol (agreed in 1997, entered into force in 2005), an addition to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The protocol includes more than 160 countries of the world and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The European Union is to cut CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions by 8%, the US by 7% and Japan by 6%. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% over the next 15 years - will be achieved. But this will not stop global warming, but only slightly slow its growth. And this is at best. So, we can conclude that serious measures to prevent global warming are not being considered and are not being taken.

Figures and facts of global warming

One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.

Over the past half century, temperatures in southwestern Antarctica, on the Antarctic Peninsula, have risen by 2.5°C. In 2002, an iceberg with an area of over 2500 km broke away from the Larsen Ice Shelf with an area of 3250 km and a thickness of more than 200 meters, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, which actually means the destruction of the glacier. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Prior to this, the glacier had remained stable for 10,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. Over the course of millennia, the thickness of the glacier decreased gradually, but in the second half of the 20th century, the rate of its melting increased significantly. The melting of the glacier led to the release of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) into the Weddell Sea.

Other glaciers are also collapsing. Thus, in the summer of 2007, an iceberg 200 km long and 30 km wide broke off from the Ross Ice Shelf; somewhat earlier, in the spring of 2007, an ice field 270 km long and 40 km wide broke away from the Antarctic continent. The accumulation of icebergs prevents the exit of cold waters from the Ross Sea, which leads to a violation of the ecological balance (one of the consequences, for example, is the death of penguins, who lost the opportunity to reach their usual food sources due to the fact that the ice in the Ross Sea lasted longer than usual).

The acceleration of the degradation of permafrost has been noted.

Since the beginning of the 1970s, the temperature of permafrost soils in Western Siberia has increased by 1.0°C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5°C. In northern Alaska, the temperature of the top layer of frozen rocks has increased by 3°C since the mid-1980s.

What impact will global warming have on the environment?

It will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats, as the current ones will simply melt away. Many species of animals and plants may simply disappear, unable to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. Will change the weather on a global scale. An increase in the number of climatic disasters is expected; longer periods of extremely hot weather; there will be more rain, but the likelihood of drought in many regions will increase; increased flooding due to hurricanes and rising sea levels. But it all depends on the specific region.

The report of the Working Group of the Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change (Shanghai, 2001) lists seven models of climate change in the 21st century. The main conclusions made in the report are the continuation of global warming, accompanied by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions (although according to some scenarios, a decline in greenhouse gas emissions is possible by the end of the century as a result of bans on industrial emissions); an increase in surface air temperature (by the end of the 21st century, an increase in surface temperature by 6°C is possible); sea level rise (on average - by 0.5 m per century).

The most likely changes in weather factors include more intense precipitation; higher maximum temperatures, an increase in the number of hot days and a decrease in the number of frosty days in almost all regions of the Earth; with heatwaves becoming more frequent in most continental areas; reduction in temperature spread.

As a result of these changes, we can expect an increase in winds and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (the general tendency to increase which was noted back in the 20th century), an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation, and a noticeable expansion of drought areas.

The Intergovernmental Commission has identified a number of areas most vulnerable to expected climate change. This is the Sahara region, the Arctic, the mega-deltas of Asia, small islands.

Negative changes in Europe include increased temperatures and increased droughts in the south (resulting in reduced water resources and reduced hydropower generation, reduced agricultural production, worsened tourism conditions), reduced snow cover and retreat of mountain glaciers, increased risk of severe floods and catastrophic floods on the rivers; increased summer precipitation in Central and Eastern Europe, increased frequency of forest fires, fires in peatlands, reduced forest productivity; increasing ground instability in Northern Europe. In the Arctic, there is a catastrophic decrease in the area of ice cover, a reduction in the area of sea ice, and increased coastal erosion.

Some researchers (for example, P. Schwartz and D. Randell) offer a pessimistic forecast, according to which, already in the first quarter of the 21st century, a sharp jump in climate is possible in an unforeseen direction, and the onset of a new ice age lasting hundreds of years may be the result.

How will global warming affect humans?

They are afraid of a lack of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts. But in the long run, nothing but human evolution awaits. Our ancestors faced a bigger problem when temperatures soared by 10°C after the end of the ice age, but that is what led to the creation of our civilization. Otherwise, they would still probably hunt mammoths with spears.

Of course, this is not a reason to pollute the atmosphere with anything, because in the short term we will have to go bad. Global warming is a question in which you need to follow the call of common sense, logic, not fall for cheap bikes and not be led by the majority, because history knows many examples when the majority were very deeply mistaken and did a lot of trouble, up to the burning of great minds, who, in the end, turned out to be right.

Global warming is the modern theory of relativity, the law of universal gravitation, the fact of the rotation of the Earth around the Sun, the sphericity of our planet at the time of their presentation to the public, when opinions were also divided. Someone is definitely right. But who is it?

P.S.

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		Page No.
	Introduction
	Chapter I Causes of global warming.
	Greenhouse effect
	Change in solar activity
	Other theories.
	Chapter II Consequences of global warming.
	Forecast.
	Rise of the ocean level.
	Changes in flora and fauna.
	catastrophic consequences.
	Chapter III. Opinions of scientists and ordinary citizens.
	Criticism of the theory.
	Data.
	Sociological polls.
	Prevention and adaptation.
	Conclusion.
	Literature.
	Application.

Introduction

The topic of global warming has become so discussed over the past decades that the pressing questions about temperature changes, which have caused many climate cataclysms, are in most cases no longer taken seriously. However, this topical issue for today, the most important, in my opinion, aspects of which I tried to cover in my work, concerns every inhabitant of our planet, because the countless victims of natural disasters, the cause of which is precisely the global warming, cannot leave anyone indifferent. climate change, and, of course, I, as a resident of a city that has experienced quite a few terrible and deadly floods in its entire history, cannot but worry about a problem that causes irreversible damage both to the economic and cultural spheres, and to the ecology of our planet, claiming thousands of human lives.

In order to get to know this topic as best as possible and try to find all possible ways to solve this problem, first of all, you need to correctly understand the term “Global warming” itself, consider all the reasons that cause these terrible catastrophes, the consequences of which I will try to acquaint you with. .

Chapter I

Causes of global warming.

So, what is global warming?

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean.

Considering some climatic changes (Fig. No. 1), such as: ocean level change, concentration 18 O (oxygen isotope) in seawater, CO concentration 2 (carbon dioxide) in Antarctic ice. Sea level peaks, CO concentrations 2 and 18 lows O coincide with interglacial temperature maxima, scientists, of course, are trying to find out all the reasons that led to these dramatic changes. Climate systems change both as a result of natural internal processes and in response to external influences, both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic.

The causes of such climate changes remain unknown, however, among the main external influences:

1) changes in the Earth's orbit ( Milankovitch cycles); (named after the Serbian astrophysicist Milutin Milanković

According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for such an increase remain the subject of discussion, but one of the most widely discussed is anthropogenicGreenhouse effect.

Greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect is a process in which absorption and emissioninfrared radiationatmospheric gasescauses heating of the atmosphere and surfaceplanets.

On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are:watersteam(responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds),carbon dioxide(CO 2 ) (9-26%), methane(CH 4 ) (4-9%) and ozone(3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, compared with the beginning of the industrial revolution in the middleXVIIIcentury. Such concentration levels have been reached for the first time in 650,000 years, a period for which reliable data have been obtained from polar ice samples.

Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory chimneys and other man-made sources of pollution together emit about 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases per year. Animal husbandry, fertilizer application, coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. About half of all greenhouse gases emitted by mankind remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years have been caused by the use ofoil, natural gas and coal. Much of the rest is caused by landscape changes, primarily deforestation.

This theory is also supported by the facts that the observed warming is more. The facts that the observed warming is more significant also testify in favor of this theory:

1. winter than summer;

2. at night than during the day;

3. in high latitudes than in middle and low ones.

4. fast heating of layerstroposphereoccurs against the background of not very fast cooling of the layersstratosphere.

Change in solar activity.

IPCC ( Intergovernmental Commission of Experts on Climate Change) have been proposed varioushypotheses, explaining changes in the temperature of the Earth by corresponding changessolar activity.

Their third report claims that solar and volcanic activity could explain half of the temperature changes before 1950, but their overall effect after that was about zero. In particular, the impact of the greenhouse effect since 1750, according to the IPCC, is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

More recent work by the IPCC has refined estimates of the impact of solar activity on warming since 1950. However, the conclusions remained roughly the same: "The best estimates of the contribution of solar activity to warming lie in the range from 16% to 36% of the contribution of the greenhouse effect."

However, there are a number of studies suggesting the existence of mechanisms that enhance the effect of solar activity, which are not taken into account in current models, or that the importance of solar activity in comparison with other factors is underestimated. Such claims are disputed, but are an active line of research. The conclusions that will be drawn from this discussion can play a key role in the question of how much humanity is responsible for climate change, and how much - natural factors.

Other theories

There are many othershypothesesabout the causes of global warming, including:

The observed warming is withinnatural climate variabilityand does not need a separate explanation;

The warming was the result of the exit from the cold Little Ice Age; that took place on Earth during the XIV-XIX centuries. This period is the coldest in terms of average annual temperatures over the past 2 thousand years. The Little Ice Age was preceded by the Atlantic Optimum (approximately X-XIII centuries) - a period of relatively warm and even weather, mild winters and the absence of severe droughts.

Warming has been observed for too short a time, so it is not possible to say with certainty whether it occurs at all.

It is important to note that the climate on Earth changes periodically depending on the repetitive processes occurring in the Earth-Sun-surrounding space system. According to the modern classification, four groups of cycles are conditionally distinguished:

1) super-long periods of 150–300 million years are associated with the most significant changes in the ecological situation on Earth. They are associated with the rhythms of tectonics and volcanism.

2) long cycles, also associated with the rhythms of volcanic activity, last for tens of millions of years.

3) short - hundreds and thousands of years - due to changes in the parameters of the earth's orbit.

The last category is conditionally called ultrashort. They are connected with the rhythms of the Sun. Among them there is a cycle of 2400 years, 200, 90, 11 years. It is possible that these rhythms are decisive in the observed warming on the planet. A person is not yet able to somehow modify and influence these processes.

Currently, none of these alternative theories has a significant number of supporters among climate scientists. (7)

Chapter II

Consequences of global warming

Projected effects of global warming

The report of the working group intergovernmental commission of EXPERTS on climate change (Shanghai, 2001) provides seven models of climate change in the 21st century. The main conclusions made in the report are the continuation of global warming, accompanied by:

1) an increase in emissionsgreenhouse gases(although according to some scenarios, by the end of the century, as a result of bans on industrial emissions, a decline in greenhouse gas emissions is possible);

2) an increase in surface air temperature (by the end of the 21st century, an increase in surface temperature by 6 °C is possible);

3) rise in ocean level (on average - by 0.5 m per century), which will cause a change in pressure on tectonic plates and cause them to shift, which in turn will cause powerful earthquakes.

The most likely weather changes include:

1) more intense precipitation;

2) higher maximum temperatures, more hot days;

3) a decrease in the number of frosty days in almost all regions of the Earth;

4) in most continental areas, heatwaves will become more frequent;

5) decrease in temperature spread.

I also reviewed scientists' research on possible climate change by the year 3000:

Global warming will be measured by more than a fourfold increase. If we continue to burn fossil fuels, the temperature will rise to 15 degrees Celsius.
- The sea level will rise until the end of this millennium, and the total increase will be 11.4 meters. This is less than the estimate of the Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change, according to which, by 2080, sea level will rise by 16-69 cm.
- Any rise in sea level above 2 meters will flood large areas of Bangladesh, Florida and many other cities that are too low above sea level. As a result, hundreds of millions of people will lose their roof over their heads.
- Abrupt climatic changes are possible even after the cessation of gas emissions, because processes that cannot be stopped can already be set in motion.
- The acidity of the oceans will decrease significantly, threatening the existence of marine organisms such as corals and plankton. It,in turn, can affect the entire marine ecosystem.
- Changes could be even more severe if the climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions than this study suggests.

The Intergovernmental Commission has identified a number of areas most vulnerable to expected climate change. This is the areaSahara, Arctic, mega-deltas of Asia, small islands. Negative changes in Europe include an increase in temperatures and an increase in droughts in the south (as a result - a decrease in water resources and a decrease in hydroelectric power generation, a decrease in agricultural production, a deterioration in tourism conditions); reduction in snow cover and retreat of mountain glaciers, increased risk of severefloods(a relatively short-term and non-periodic rise in the water level in the river, resulting from the rapid melting of snow during a thaw, glaciers, heavy rains) and catastrophic floods(river, river floods, producing various kinds of destruction in low places(demolition of dwellings, destruction of woody vegetation, crops, etc.); sometimes occur periodically from the rapid melting of snow, from the lowering of snow avalanches and glaciers, from the wind driving water from the sea (Neva). . Flood control through hydraulic structures; dams, dikes, canals, etc. (remarkable structures in the Netherlands). on the rivers; increased summer precipitation in Central and Eastern Europe, increased frequency of forest fires, fires in peatlands, reduced forest productivity; increasing ground instability in Northern Europe. In the Arctic - a catastrophic decrease in the area of ice sheets, a reduction in the area of sea ice, increasederosionshores. Some researchers (for example, P. Schwartz and D. Randell) offer a pessimistic forecast, according to which, already in the first quarter of the 21st century, a sharp jump in climate is possible in an unforeseen direction, and the onset of a new ice age lasting hundreds of years may be the result. (2)

Scientists predict global changes in climate, flora and fauna of our planet, even with a slight change in temperature:

The temperature rises by 2 degrees

These seemingly insignificant changes will inevitably lead to catastrophic consequences, mainly in developing countries. Farmers whose well-being is built on agricultural production, the effectiveness of which depends on climatic conditions, will be especially affected. The drought will also be a scourge for third world countries, where millions of people are already suffering from a shortage of clean and potable water.

Coral colonies on the islands will die, depriving the local population of income from tourism and fishing. Tropical diseases such as malaria will spread. Extinction threatens the Arctic fauna, in particular the polar bear.

The temperature rises by 3 degrees

A food crisis awaits the inhabitants of the British Isles. In Africa, the number of deaths from diarrhea will be 6%. Finally, the unique ecosystems of the north, the Alps, and the Amazon basin will disappear.

The temperature rises by 4 degrees

The melting of the Arctic ice will raise the level of the world ocean by 5-6 meters, and will inevitably lead to the flooding of large areas and the flow of refugees. These risks in Britain will expose 1.8 million people. The same number of people in the country of Bangladesh will lose their homes due to flooding, and this is half the population of a poor Asian country. 30 - 40 million people will be forced to leave their homes due to floods and droughts.

The temperature rises by more than 4 degrees

With a probability of 50%, there will be critical changes in the climate of northern Europe, the stability and moderation of which depends on ocean currents.

Of course, one cannot but pay attention to the hypotheses of scientists who, like us, are concerned about this problem, but first of all, I would like to highlight the consequences of the change that are already visible to all of us. climate.(3)

Ocean level rise

Science editorial (David King article, January 2008) it was said that "over the past century, the ocean level has risen by 10-20 centimeters, which is not the limit." How is this related to global warming? The researchers point to two hypothesized factors.

The first is the melting of ground polar ice, which is increasing the volume of the oceans.

The second is the thermal expansion of water: an increase in its volume when heated.

In the Pacific, on the tiny islands of Tuvalu, you can already feel the rising water. According to The Smithsonian, data collected from Funafuti Atoll (Tuvalu's largest atoll) shows that the water level there has risen "by an average of 5.6 millimeters per year" over the past decade.(1)

Changes in flora and fauna

Global warming disrupts the normal existence of wildlife and the environment on all continents. These are the findings of an unprecedented scientific study that reveals the extent to which climate change has already affected the world's ecosystems.
Scientists analyzed published reports, the first of which date back to 1970, and found that at least 90% of the damage and disruption to the environment around the world can be attributed to human-induced warming.
Significant declines in penguin populations in Antarctica, declines in fish populations in African lakes, changes in water levels in America's rivers, and earlier flowering and bird migration in Europe all appear to be driven by global warming.
A panel of experts, including members of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the Americas, Europe, Australia and China, have for the first time formally linked some of the most dramatic changes in the world's wildlife and habitats to human-driven climate change.
In a study published in the journal Nature (September 3, 2005, Kerry Emanuel), scientists analyzed reports that focused on changes in the behavior or population size of 288,000 species of animals and plants. An additional 829 papers were also reviewed on various environmental phenomena, including rising river levels, retreat of glaciers and changes in forest boundaries across seven continents.
To determine whether global warming played a role, and if so, how much, scientists then examined historical data to find out how natural variations in local climate, deforestation and land-use change can have an impact on ecosystems and the species that live in them.
In 90% of cases, changes in the behavior and abundance of wildlife populations are explained only by global warming, and 95% of changes in the nature of the environment - for example, melting permafrost, retreat of glaciers and changing water levels in rivers - correspond to a pattern of rising air temperatures. (four)

For example, in Hudson Bay, Canada, mosquitoes peak in early spring, but seabirds have not adapted to these changes and the chicking period does not coincide with the availability of the greatest amount of food.

In the Netherlands, a similar mismatch has led to a decline in flycatcher populations of up to 90% over the past two decades.

The extinction of birds can be prevented if the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is significantly reduced.

“When we look at all these influences together, it becomes clear that they are observed on all continents and are endemic. We get the feeling that climate change is already affecting how our planet functions,”says study lead author Cynthia Rosenzweig, who leads the Climate Effects Research Group at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.(2)

Most of the reports reviewed by the research team were published between 1970 and 2004. During this period, the world average air temperature increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius. According to the latest report of the IPCC, by the end of the 21st century, the planet will probably get warmer by another 2-6 degrees Celsius.

“When you look at a map of the world and see where these changes are already happening and how many species and ecosystems are already responding to climate change, even though it’s only 0.6 degrees warmer, our concern for the future only intensifies,” said Rosenzweig. “Obviously, we must adapt to climate change and also try to mitigate it. This is a real situation. Change is happening at this very moment." (5)
So many of the studies included in the scientists' report talk about dramatic changes in water availability in the face of global warming. In many regions, snow and ice melt earlier than before, and consequently, the water level in rivers and lakes rises in spring, but drought occurs in summer. Understanding the change in water availability will be critical to addressing water supply issues and will be key to securing water sources, scientists say.
By bringing together diverse messages and reports on wildlife and ecosystems, one can see how the disruption of the normal existence of one link of the ecosystem has a "domino effect" on the rest. As one study reports, as a result of warming in Antarctica, sea ice has melted and krill populations have declined by 85%. In a separate study, krill-foraging emperor penguin populations in the same area also declined by 50% in one warm winter, according to a separate study.

Deficiency of krill, which is the basis of the diet for both whales and seals, is believed to be one of the reasons for the recent cases of cannibalism among polar bears in the Arctic. In 2006, Stephen Emstrap of the US Geological Society, a world-class expert on polar bears, investigated three cases of polar bears preying on each other in the southern Beaufort Sea. Perhaps the bears took up arms against their relatives due to the lack of their usual prey.
Other reports show how early spring in Europe has far-reaching implications for the food chain. As a result of warm weather, buds and leaves appear on trees earlier, and therefore the population of larvae that feed on leaves also increases earlier. The larval-eating titmouse have mostly adapted to this change, now hatching chicks two weeks earlier.

Also, the change in the environment caused by global warming has also affected the life of birds. Climate change may lead to the extinction of up to 72% of bird species, but the world still has a chance to prevent the death of birds.This was announced at the UN conference in Nairobi by the conservation group of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).(2)

Birds are very sensitive to changes in weather conditions, and global warming has already affected many species - from migratory birds to penguins.. The WWF report says,that climatic changes have affected the migration of birds, many species have generally ceased to change their habitat with the change of seasons. (2)

Touching upon the topic of global warming, it is impossible not to announce the catastrophic consequences of climate change. As a result of global warming, the harmful effects of industrial emissions, an increase in the volume of highly toxic, hard-to-recycle waste, as well as the use of bioengineering (transgenic products) and chemicals in everyday life and agriculture, the number and life expectancy of animals and birds have decreased. For 50 years, the list of plant and animal species on the planet has decreased by a third. In Europe, over the past 20 years, about 17 thousand species have disappeared. The Mediterranean Sea has lost almost a third of its flora and fauna. (5)

catastrophic consequences

global warming

The Earth's climate system is a gigantic mechanism that converts and distributes solar energy. Since the tropics receive most of the sun's heat, this temperature imbalance sets the atmosphere in motion. Due to the daily rotation of the Earth, masses of moving moist air form vortices, some of which turn into depressions, or areas of low atmospheric pressure. Depressions, in turn, can develop into storms.

If you watch the normal trajectory of storms, you will see that they generally move north or south from the equator to colder regions. Thus, these storms serve as giant heat exchangers that contribute to climate mitigation. But when the temperature in the upper ocean - the "boiler" of the climate machine - exceeds 27 degrees Celsius, these storms gain enough energy to turn into tropical cyclones. Depending on the region, these atmospheric whirlwinds are also called hurricanes or typhoons.

In US history, the deadliest natural disaster caused by a hurricane occurred on September 8, 1900 in Galveston, Texas. Waves caused by the hurricane in this island city killed between 6,000 and 8,000 people and up to 4,000 in its surroundings, and about 3,600 houses were washed away. Not a single building in Galveston remained unscathed.

In recent years, many powerful storms have swept through different parts of the planet. Scientists are now trying to figure out if they are related to global warming, which can accumulate energy to form such hurricanes. But weather anomalies are probably just one of the many symptoms of global warming.

In its 2004 report on natural disasters, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies stated that geophysical and weather disasters had increased by 60 percent. “This reflects a long-standing trend,” says this report, released before the devastating December 26 tsunami in the Indian Ocean.(2)

Speaking of this most important problem, one cannot fail to highlight the catastrophic consequences of global warming that every inhabitant of our planet has faced.

First of all, I would like to say about the natural disasters that occurred in 2005, 2007 and 2008, these are the years when temperature records were broken.

2005 was a record year for the number of natural disasters. As Yuri Ferapontov (Head of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Bashkir Territorial Administration for Hydrometeorology and monitoring environment): “The study and analysis of disasters in the world in 2005 allowed to count 360 major natural disasters, which is 18 percent more than in the previous year. We, in turn, if we are not able to prevent natural disasters, can significantly reduce the damage from them, just by observing elementary security measures.. And this call is more than relevant, because only during the year in Russia 361 cases of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena were registered, which caused significant harm to the country's economy.

Natural disasters killed 112,000 people in 2005 (87,000 people were victims of just one earthquake in Pakistan). The damage caused by natural disasters and man-made disasters has reached a record high in the history of mankind at 225 billion dollars.

And, of course, powerful hurricanes, Ivan, Rita and Katrina, which hit the United States, became the worst disaster of 2005. And on September 21, 2005, while the Americans were experiencing the consequences of this deadly trio of hurricanes, a typhoon hit Vietnam that claimed the lives of more than 50 people, this was the day when the first minimum level (ice coverage) of the Arctic ice was recorded.

There were more natural disasters in 2007 and the cost of dealing with them was higher than in 2006, but they resulted in fewer casualties.(5)

This is stated in the annual report of the German insurance companyMunich Re. In 2007, 950 natural disasters were recorded against 850 last year, specifies Munich Re. This is the biggestthe number noted so far by the German insurance company, which has been dealing with such statistics since 1974. The total damage from natural disasters in 2007 amounted to about 75 billion dollars, or 50% more than in 2006, according to a report in which these phenomena are explained by climate change. The number of victims of natural disasters amounted to about 15,000 thousand people. Heavy snowfalls, storms, tsunamis and floods caused many deaths and destruction.

Natural disasters that occurred in 2008 claimed the lives of 220,000 people, which is one of the highest indicators of sad world statistics. According to experts, this huge figure is another confirmation of the fact that the climate is changing rapidly, and humanity cannot remain indifferent to this.(5)
More than 135,000 people were killed by Tropical Cyclone Nargis, which hit Myanmar in May 2008. Just a few days later, an earthquake hit China, killing 70,000 people, 18,000 missing, and about 5 million people in Sichuan were left homeless. In January of the outgoing year, about a thousand people died as a result of severe frosts in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. 635 people died in August-September floods in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, 557 - Typhoon Fengshen, moving from the Philippines to China, 300 - earthquakes in Pakistan. (5)

Global warming has disrupted the water-air balance on the planet, which has caused massive natural disasters: sharp temperature fluctuations, climatic phenomena atypical for the regions. Thus, the winter of 2005-2006 was unprecedentedly frosty and snowy all over the world. Snow fell even in Africa - in Tunisia and Morocco. In the winter of 2006-2007, on the contrary, the usual snow for this season was absent throughout Europe and snowfalls were observed in traditionally warm regions, for example, in Israel.

But how can global warming lead to cooling?

Global warming does not mean warming everywhere and at any time. Such warming occurs only if the temperature is averaged over all geographic locations and allseasons. So, for example, in some area the average summer temperature may increase and the average winter temperature decrease, that is, the climate will become morecontinental.

According to one hypothesis, global warming will lead to a halt or a serious weakening ofgulf stream. This will cause a significant drop in the average temperature inEurope(at the same time, the temperature in other regions will increase, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent due to the transfer of warm water from the tropics.

According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donn, there is an oscillatory process in the cryoer, in which glaciation (ice age) is generated by climate warming, anddeglaciation(exit from the ice age) - cooling. This is due to the fact that in the Cenozoic, which is a cryoera, when the ice polar caps thaw, the amount of precipitation increases at high latitudes, which leads to a local increase in albedo in winter. In the future, there is a decrease in the temperature of the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, followed by the formation of glaciers. When the polar ice caps freeze, glaciers in the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere begin to thaw without receiving sufficient recharge in the form of precipitation.(4)

Chapter III.

Opinions of scientists and ordinary citizens

Many scientists still refute the theory of global warming. For example, the Danish environmentalist and economistBjorn Lomborgbelieves that global warming is not as threatening as it is portrayed by some experts and journalists echoing them.“The topic of warming is overheated,” he says. Lomborg's views are detailed in the book Chill! Global warming. Skeptical leadership.”(3)

But in defense of the hypothesis of global warming, it is best to cite the relevant figures and facts that clearly demonstrate the consequences of these processes.

One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.

Over the past half century, the temperature in the southwest of Antarctica, atAntarctic Peninsula, increased by 2.5 °C. AT2002 offshore Larsen Glacierwith an area of 3250 km² and a thickness of over 200 meters, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, broke awayicebergwith an area of over 2500 km², which actually means the destruction of the glacier. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Prior to this, the glacier had remained stable for 10,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. Over the course of millennia, the thickness of the glacier decreased gradually, but in the second half of the 20th century, the rate of its melting increased significantly. The melting of the glacier led to the release of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) intoWeddell Sea.

Other glaciers are also collapsing. Yes, in the summer2007 offshore Ross Glacieran iceberg 200 km long and 30 km wide broke off; somewhat earlier, in the spring of 2007, an ice field 270 km long and 40 km wide broke away from the Antarctic continent. The accumulation of icebergs prevents the exit of cold waters fromRoss seas, which leads to a violation of the ecological balance (one of the consequences, for example, is the deathpenguins, deprived of the opportunity to reach their usual food sources due to the fact that the ice in the Ross Sea lasted longer usual). (3)

Acceleration of the degradation process was notedpermafrost.

Since the beginning of the 1970s, the temperature of permafrost soils in Western Siberia has increased by 1.0 °C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5 °C. In the northAlaskasince the mid-1980s, the temperature of the upper permafrost has increased by 3°C.

And of course, all the topics mentioned above, clearly proving the fact that our climate is still changing.

Delving into this topic, I was also interested to get acquainted with the opinion of ordinary citizens, who, like all of us, are concerned about this problem.

Sociological surveys were conducted in 100 settlements in 46 regions, territories and republics of Russia. Interview at the place of residence June 14-15, 2008. 1500 respondents. The statistical error does not exceed 3.6%.(3)

A similar survey was conducted by me among my classmates, where they were asked the same questions.(1)

Sociological survey No. 1

Respondents were asked whether they agree with the global warming hypothesis. Two-thirds of respondents (67%) believe that in recent years the climate on the planet has indeed become warmer; at the same time, 15% of respondents believe that such warming does not actually occur, and 18% find it difficult to assess climate change. (Diagram No. 2a)

In my survey, 80% agreed with the global warming hypothesis, but 20% denied the fact of global warming. (Diagram No. 2b)

Sociological survey No. 2

Respondents were asked whether they observed relevant climate changes. Half of the respondents (51%) note an increase in the average annual temperature in their region, a fifth (20%) do not see changes in the local weather, and 13% believe that the average annual temperature has even dropped over the past few years. (Diagram No. 3a)

In my survey, 80% noted an increase in the average annual temperature, 10% do not see climate change, and 10% even note a decrease in the average annual temperature. (diagram №3b)

Sociological survey No. 3

Respondents were then asked what impact these climate changes have. However, the topic of global warming was discussed, of course, only with those who believe that it is really happening. Most of them (50% of the sample as a whole) believe that global warming negatively affects the life of mankind, and only a few consider its impact positive (5% of the sample) or deny any impact of this process on people's lives (3%) . (Diagram No. 4a)

In my survey, 90% of respondents note a negative impact, and 10% a positive one. (diagram №4b)

Sociological survey No. 4

Then the respondents were asked about the causes of global warming. At the same time, half of those who consider global warming to be real consider it exclusively as a result of human activity (33% of the sample as a whole), more than a third - as a result of a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors (25% of the sample), and only a few (8%) believe that that climate change is entirely due to natural processes. diagram (diagram No. 5a)

In my survey, 30% believe that climate change is caused by human factors, 40% by human and natural factors, and 30% by natural factors. (Diagram No. 5b)

Sociological poll No. 5

Next, a question was asked about the possible consequences of global warming. Global warming is perceived by the majority of respondents (53% of the sample as a whole) as a threat to humanity - in the distant future (29%) or in the near future (24%); 2% believe that global climate change is not dangerous. (Diagram No. 6a)

In my survey, 90% of respondents predict dangerous consequences, 10% predict non-dangerous climate change. (Diagram No. 6b)

Sociological poll No. 6

And the last respondents were asked whether a person can stop the process of climate change. The majority of those who consider global warming to be real believe that a person is not able to stop it (36% of the sample as a whole), and a third (21%) hold the opposite view. Those who believe that resistance to warming is possible have been asked an open question about what exactly humanity can do. Respondents spoke about the need for respect for nature in general (7%) and a reasonable approach to the use of natural resources (1%), about limiting and controlling industrial emissions and introducing new purification systems (5%), purifying the atmosphere (1%), improving technology,(3%). Someone spoke in favor of stopping deforestation, limiting nuclear testing and space flights (1%), and someone noted that it was necessary“All countries should take this problem seriously and join forces”to solve the problem of global warming at the international level (1%). (Diagram No. 7a)

In my survey, 40% of respondents believe that prevention is not possible, 60% have the opposite view. (Diagram No. 7b)

So, having familiarized myself with the consequences of global warming, having learned the opinions of scientists and ordinary people, I would like to tell you about possible, in my opinion, solutions to this problem.

Prevention and adaptation

A broad consensus among climate scientists that global temperatures continue to rise has led a number of governments, corporations and individuals to try to prevent or adapt to global warming. Many environmental organizations advocate the adoptionmeasures against climate change, mainly by consumers, but also at the municipal, regional and government levels. Some also advocate limiting the global production of fossil fuels, citing a direct link between fuel combustion and CO2 emissions. significantly reduced CO emissions 2 and other greenhouse gases. This is primarily due to the changes taking place in these countries and the fall in the level of production. Nevertheless, scientists expect that Russia will reach the previous levels of greenhouse gas emissions at the beginning of the twenty-first century.

In December years at the meeting inKyoto (Japan) dedicated to global climate change, delegates from more than one hundred and sixty countries adopted a convention obliging developed countries to reduce CO2 emissions. 2 . The Kyoto Protocol obliges thirty-eight industrialized countries to reduce- years CO 2 emissions by 5% of the level of the year:

European Union must cut CO emissions 2 and other greenhouse gases by 8%.

USA - by 7%.

Japan - by 6%.

The protocol provides for a system of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence lies in the fact that each of the countries (so far this applies only to thirty-eight countries that have committed themselves to reduce emissions) receives permission to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. At the same time, it is assumed that some countries or companies will exceed the emission quota. In such cases, these countries or companies will be able to buy the right to additional emissions from those countries or companies whose emissions are less than the allocated quota. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the next 15 years by 5% - will be achieved.

There is also a conflict at the interstate level. Developing countries likeIndia and China, which contribute significantly to greenhouse gas pollution, attended the meeting in Kyoto but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries are generally wary of the environmental initiatives of industrialized states. The arguments are simple:

the main greenhouse gas pollution is carried out by developed countries
the tightening of control plays into the hands of the industrialized countries, as this will hinder the economic development of developing countries. (6)

Conclusion

In my work, I tried to highlight all the most important aspects of the well-known, but so important problem for each of us. But unfortunately, not everyone still clearly understands the full threat of the current cardinal changes, because catastrophic natural disasters, temperature changes that cause natural disasters that annually claim more than 100 thousand lives of innocent people, the melting of the ice of Antarctica, which, in turn, can to release the chemicals contained in them, in particular, DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane - the strongest poison, the use of which most states refused almost 30 years ago), can claim thousands of human lives, and disruption of the Baikal ecosystem (which is the main source of fresh water in the future) in the near time will be detrimental to the unique pool, and of course other changes in flora and fauna will adversely affect the general condition of the entire planet. I believe that all states should immediately start looking for solutions to this problem, first of all, by securing states such as the Netherlands, Britain, etc., which, if the changes caused by global warming continue, will become victims of endless deadly floods that destroy everything in their way

Climate indicators for the last 0.5 Ma: ocean level change (blue), 18O concentration in seawater, CO2 concentration in Antarctic ice. The division of the time scale is 20,000 years. Sea level peaks, CO2 concentrations and 18O minima coincide with interglacial temperature maxima.

(Fig. 2a)

(Fig. 2b)

(Fig. 3a)

(Fig. 3b)

(Fig. 4a)

(Fig. 4b)

(Fig. 5a)

(Fig. 5b)

(Fig. 6a)

(Fig. 6b)

(Fig. 7a)