The place of Russia in the project “New Silk Road. What is the new Silk Road and does China want to take over the world with its help

The route should operate at full capacity after the launch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (Turkey) railway. In mid-October, the head of the Azerbaijan Railways CJSC, Javid Gurbanov, called November 2016 the date of delivery. So far, cargo containers from China, delivered to the Kazakh port of Aktau and then on to Baku, will go from there to the ports of Georgia, and then be transported by container ships to Turkey.

A trial run of the route took place back in February 2015, Garibashvili said at the Tbilisi forum of the Silk Road Economic Belt in September. In July, a Nomadexpress test container train ran along the route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alyaty (Azerbaijan), covering 3.5 thousand km through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea in five days. He delivered flat wagons designed to carry 82 containers weighing 20 tons each.

“The Trans-Asian-Caucasian train makes it possible to reduce travel time by five times compared to sea transportation. If, for example, it takes 40-45 days for sea transportation from China, then the new railway route will bring goods from China to Georgia within nine days,” he pointed out in his report “The role of transport and transit corridors in ensuring international cooperation in order to sustainable development” (*.pdf) in September of this year, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. In the document, he referred to data provided, among other things, by the Georgian government.

In November this year, cooperation went further: in Istanbul, representatives of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, China and Turkey established a joint consortium to transport goods from China to Europe bypassing Russia. The enterprise included Mishgeng Logistics (China), the Kazakhstani "daughter" of "KTZ Express" (the railway company "Kazakhstan Temir Zholy"), the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company, the Azerbaijani Karvan Logistics and Trans Caucasus Terminals ("daughter" of the "Georgian Railway"). Turkey is represented in the consortium as an associate member. The train that arrived in Tbilisi from China on Sunday was the first trial train, the consortium acted as the operator of the railway communication.

According to Igbal Huseynov, deputy head of the Azerbaijan Railways, up to 54 million tons of cargo per year can pass through the trans-Caspian route. By 2020, up to 300,000-400,000 containers could be delivered this way to Turkey and Europe, he said at a conference in Odessa in early December. Since 2016, the consortium expects to start transporting goods through Ukraine to Northern and Eastern Europe - in order to use the capacity of the Odessa port, insists the Governor of the Odessa region Mikhail Saakashvili.

silk nets

The Trans-Caspian route is not the only promising rail route from China to Europe under development. Since 2011, a connection has been established between Chinese Chongqing and German Duisburg: the total length of the route is 11.2 thousand km, and before reaching Germany, the Chinese train passes through the territory of Kazakhstan, Russia and Poland. Since the launch of the connection in this direction, China has transported goods worth $ 2.5 billion along it. A total of 11 Chinese cities, the largest industrial hubs, have freight rail links with Europe.

The impetus for the development of infrastructure projects was given by the ambitious concept of the "Silk Road Economic Belt", formulated by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2013 during his tour of Central Asian countries.

This concept involves the development of economic cooperation on the continent through the construction of transport infrastructure. Increasing its effectiveness, coupled with the elimination of trade barriers, should lead to an increase in the volume of mutual trade in the region, as well as increase the role of national currencies, primarily the Chinese yuan, in mutual economic transactions. In addition, the implementation of infrastructure projects should give impetus to the development of sparsely populated and economically lagging inland provinces of China, from Inner Mongolia to the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

For the development of infrastructure projects, at the initiative of China, a $40 billion Silk Road Fund was established, co-founded by the Central Bank of China, other state-owned banks and state corporations.

Beijing makes the main bet on the railway communication - this industry has been chosen as the main export industry. “Railways are supposed to be the driving force behind increasing exports of Chinese high-tech equipment,” wrote (*.pdf) Vasily Mikheev, Deputy Director of IMEMO RAS, Sergey Lukonin, Head of Department of the same Institute, and Jae Sun-Hun, a Korean researcher.

Following the Chinese railway workers, manufacturers of equipment, software, providers of engineering and other services, as well as banks, insurance and other companies, should come to the regions, experts describe the expansion strategy of China.

“The Silk Road strategy is a strategy for stimulating Chinese exports,” Jonathan Holslag, professor at the Free University of Brussels, explained to RBC. “Most of the railroads and infrastructure projects built with Chinese assistance are part of a trade model where China has a trade surplus and other countries have a trade deficit.” Beijing will work on this strategy for the next 10-15 years.

In addition, according to Mikheev and his colleagues, the objectives of the Silk Road include ensuring China's energy security - the country is highly dependent on energy supplies. Thus, in 2013, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Land and Natural Resources of China, China's dependence on oil supplies amounted to 57%, and by 2020 this figure may rise to 66% with the prospect of further increase.

At the end of 2013, according to official data, China imported 280 million tons of oil. Of these, 10.17 million tons (86 million barrels) came from Kazakhstan. Raw materials were supplied through a pipeline linking Central Kazakhstan and Northwest China, its length is 745 km. Turkmenistan in 2013 provided 52% of China's gas needs. In 2014, China bought up to 100 bcm. m of gas from the Central Asian states. In the spring of 2014, it became known that the Chinese oil and gas company CNPC intends to invest $4 billion in an industrial zone in the south of Turkmenistan.

The Russian government this week approved an intergovernmental agreement with China to buy a 9.9% stake in Yamal LNG from NOVATEK, FAS chief Igor Artemyev said. The buyer was the Silk Road Fund.

Together with Gazprom

In addition, China is cooperating with the Russian Gazprom. In May, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Vice President Wang Dongjin signed an agreement on the basic terms of gas supplies from Russia to China via the western route.

The framework agreement on supplies via the western route was signed in November 2014 and provides for the annual supply of 30 billion cubic meters to China. m of gas from the fields of Western Siberia through the Altai gas pipeline.

Place of Russia

The Silk Road and the concept of Eurasian integration promoted by Russia on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union, despite all the mutual assurances from Beijing and Moscow, can hardly be considered complementary. At the same time, the Chinese leadership constantly emphasizes that the project implies exclusively economic cooperation and does not aim at any political integration.

The economic interests of the two projects are already clashing. For example, Beijing is concerned about the Customs Union (Customs Union) created on Moscow's initiative in the CIS (in addition to Russia, it includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan). The formation of uniform tariffs for the import of Chinese products to these countries may adversely affect the prospects for growth in the volume of mutual trade between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan with China. As experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development calculated back in 2012, a 2% increase in tariffs could lead to a reduction in Chinese imports to the CU countries by 2-3%.

According to IMEMO, the Customs Union is gradually tightening the trade regime with China. In recent years, the Eurasian Economic Commission has repeatedly launched investigations against Chinese manufacturers, imposing anti-dumping duties on them. In 2015 alone, the EEC introduced anti-dumping duties on, among other things, Chinese seamless steel pipes (used for drilling and operating oil and gas wells), truck tires, cold-rolled stainless steel products, caterpillar bulldozers and citric acid.

At the same time, Russia has been losing economic competition to China in Central Asia for several years now. The volume of China's bilateral trade with the countries of Central Asia in 2013 amounted to $50.3 billion, in 2014 against the backdrop of an economic slowdown - $46 billion. At the same time, last year Beijing approved the allocation of an investment package of $30 billion to Astana, Tashkent received a $15 billion deal , the total amount of economic assistance to Kyrgyzstan amounted to $ 3 billion.

The volume of Russian investments in the region in 2013-2014 amounted to only $15 billion, and the volume of trade, according to Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service, was $30.5 billion in 2013 and $27.8 billion in 2014.

One of the challenges of the Chinese project, IMEMO experts consider the final transformation of Russia into "player No. 2" in this region. “For the first time, Russia is in the role of a slave player, that is, China will more firmly defend its economic interests,” they say.

Even the very development of the region's railway network in the forms in which it is seen in Beijing can have a significant impact on the prospects for including Russia's Far Eastern regions in economic cooperation with Europe. “In the event that the main railway line of the Silk Road is likely to pass through Russian territory through Orenburg or Chelyabinsk, the rest of the Trans-Siberian Railway and BAM will remain unused. Kazakhstan will receive most of the transit payments,” IMEMO experts say.

One Actor Theater

But it is too early to talk about China's transport and infrastructure breakthroughs. In 2014, China's bilateral trade with the European Union, according to the European Commission, amounted to €466 billion ($619 billion at the average annual rate). Of this, rail transportation by order of cargo owners, according to Chinese customs authorities, accounted for only $4.9 billion, The South China Morning Post pointed out in November.

For many reasons, rail traffic along this route is unprofitable and inferior to sea transportation, says RBC Stapran. As The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) points out, the railroad will never replace shipping. A train can carry at most a few hundred containers, while container ships can take on 18,000 containers.

The maximum cargo weight of a conventional 40-foot container is 9.6 tons. The cost of transporting such a container by rail is $8,000. Transportation of the same container by sea would cost about $3,000, and delivery of an equivalent cargo by air would cost $37,000, calculated specialized edition of JOC.com.

“The balance between price and speed makes rail shipments worthwhile when transporting high-value Chinese exports to Europe, such as laptops, or imports from there, such as car parts,” the WSJ noted. In the case of the Chongqing-Duisburg direction, China, for example, supplies components for Hewlett Packard products.

Moreover, says Stapran, if we take the Silk Wind project, then at present this direction is not equipped with the appropriate infrastructure, such as unloading terminals. “An extended road is only a hundredth part of what is needed for efficient and profitable transportation of goods. So far, this can only be considered as a pilot project, ”the expert says to RBC.

The SCMP concludes that the Silk Road has shown a "slow start" so far. Logistics companies have encountered difficulties in European cities when filling empty containers with goods exported from EU countries. According to China Railways, in the first half of 2015, 200 trains were sent to Europe from China, only 50 arrived back with cargo.

“Only a few containers are returned within a month, we can’t even fill the train,” said Gong Qinghua, sales director of one of the shipping companies operating on the Yiwu (Zheqiang province) - Madrid route. In the direction of Spain from this industrial city, which specializes in the production of souvenirs, eight full trains leave per month. There is simply no demand for European products in Yiwu, Gong says.

Another factor is the structure of European imports to China: if it is easy to deliver consumer goods to the EU by rail, then it is impossible to deliver European products of heavy engineering by rail in the opposite direction. According to the European Commission (*.pdf), in the structure of Chinese exports to the EU in 2014, 12.3% were textile goods (the second position after engineering products - 46.6%), and another 9.2% - "miscellaneous finished products ". The European Union exported machinery and equipment first of all (31.8%), and transport equipment secondarily (26.3%). The Europeans' wariness of Chinese logistics companies also plays a role, Darryl Headaway, head of the Silk Route Rail consulting company, cites the SCMP.

According to Li Gang, an associate at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, for at least the next three to four years, rail travel between China and Europe will not be commercially profitable. Until now, this mega-project has been a one-man theater for Beijing, but Silk Road is a long-term strategy for China, Li Gang said. The potential of China's rail link to Europe is enormous, he said, as China-EU relations are "entering a golden era."

With the participation of Alexander Ratnikov

New Silk Road to be paved with big money

The topic of the New Silk Road from the Middle Kingdom to Asia, Africa and Western Europe is now probably more of a concern not for journalists, but for economists. Although for Russia and a number of other countries the idea of becoming a global Chinese transit country warms the ear, it burns the pocket sensitively. So far, the intercontinental super-construction only promises boundless prospects, but it already requires almost cosmic expenses. At the same time, the project has quite enough risks. First of all, these are the risks of globalization and the question of whether China will remain the same "world factory" a decade later, or will production be distributed in some other way, which, for example, is already observed in America, when Trump demands the return of jobs, technologies and power back home. That is, it may turn out that there will suddenly be nothing special to carry along this “road”. Especially for FederalPress, the financial and economic aspects of this project were analyzed by the CEO of the holding AsstrA-Associated Traffic AG Dmitry Lagun:

“The cost of Russian investments, as well as the forecast of their return, is currently impossible due to the fact that information on the volume of investments in this project by the Russian Federation is not published in the media. China is the main initiator and investor of the New Silk Road project. Some publications mention information that by 2030 the project will be invested three trillion US dollars. The Silk Road Fund is the main funding platform, with an estimated investment of $40 billion, with a focus on infrastructure investment. The fund operates in accordance with Chinese law, and foreign investors can participate in its projects. The capital of the Asian Bank and the BRICS Bank can also be attracted to finance projects, the infrastructure investments of each of them will potentially amount to 100 billion US dollars.

Beijing says the project will build or network roads, railroads, ports, oil and gas pipelines and power plants along routes that will link China with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, Africa and Europe. Along with the establishment of a rail link between China and Russia, a project of a high-speed highway connecting Europe and Western China.

Infographics of the Kommersant newspaper

On the territory of Russia, the project is being implemented by Rosavtodor. The section from St. Petersburg to Moscow (M-11 road) is estimated at 373 billion rubles. A section of the highway from M-11 to the Central Ring Road (TsKAD). The construction of two sections (1st and 5th) of the Central Ring Road is already underway, the rest in October 2017 will be played at concession tenders. The high-speed highway, which should pass between the existing federal roads M-7 "Volga" and M-5 "Ural" through Gus-Khrustalny, Murom, Ardatov, south of Nizhny Novgorod, will cost about 400 billion rubles. Within the territory of Tatarstan a 297-kilometer Shali-Bavly highway is already under construction, and a section with a length of about 40 km. is already functioning. The highway will connect the existing federal highways M-7 and M-5, thus increasing their connectivity. The cost of this project is not called.

In the Republic Bashkortostan are going to build a 282-kilometer section of the international transport corridor (ITC) from the village of Bavly to the city of Kumertau, its cost is estimated at 156 billion rubles. AT Orenburg region, it is planned to build a 172-kilometer section bypassing Orenburg, Saraktash and to the borders with Kazakhstan- 84 billion rubles. Thus, the entire Russian section of the ITC from St. Petersburg to the borders with Kazakhstan should be ready by 2023, some of its sections will be launched by 2018. In addition, by 2020, the reconstruction of the M-1 Belarus highway will be carried out, which should provide a direct exit for goods transported along the corridor to the Republic of Belarus and Western European countries.

The influence of the path on the regional economy

International transport corridors should serve not only the purposes of organizing transit and export traffic, but also become the basis for closer economic consolidation and economic development of adjacent regions. Most of the areas along which the route runs are united primarily by such a common feature as their inland macrolocation in the depths of the Eurasian continent at a great distance from sea and ocean routes. By optimizing economic relations, it is possible to reduce the average distance of transportation and thereby reduce transport costs. Consequently, cross-border economic cooperation based on a common transport and communication infrastructure can bring very great results.

The direct effects of the implementation of the considered international transport corridors include a sharp reduction in railway tariffs, to the level of freight rates for sea transport and, possibly, lower. This will lead to a reduction in transport costs and the cost of transportation, and ultimately to the economic "approximation" of the inland regions ( Siberia and the Urals of Russia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Shaanxi of China), as well as countries of Central Asia and Kazakhstan to the leading centers of the world, sea and ocean ports, and thereby removing one of the main brakes on development. There will be a significant increase in the throughput capacity of highways, accompanied by an increase in traffic volumes, freight and passenger turnover, which is necessary for closer economic consolidation and economic recovery of adjacent territories. Russia, China, Kazakhstan and other countries will be guaranteed to receive tangible income from performing the functions of a transport bridge between Western Europe and East Asia.

The indirect effect of the implementation of these megaprojects is expected to be even more significant, which consists in the strongest multiplicative general economic and social impact of international corridors on the vast areas adjacent to them. Thus, within the zone of influence of the Trans-Siberian Railway, there are the most developed, inhabited and populated regions of Siberia, the conditions and possibilities of which do not fundamentally differ from the average Russian ones. The construction of the superhighway will secure for the southern part of Siberia, which has relatively comfortable natural and climatic conditions, the status of a territory that is a priority for powerful integrated development. The creation of the Great Silk Road on a modern railway basis will be an effective option for including the still lagging deep northwestern and central parts of China into the zone of advanced development. The formation of the Northern Corridor of the Silk Road can bring a particularly noticeable effect to Kazakhstan, since rich resource areas and large urban agglomerations fall into the zone of its stimulating influence ( Astana and Karaganda) in the east and north of the country.

The creation of a motorway in a new direction will increase the density of the federal road network and give a tremendous impetus to the development of at least eight Russian regions through which this section of the corridor will pass: Moscow, Vladimir, Nizhny Novgorod, Chuvash Republic, Republic of Mordovia, Ulyanovsk, Samara Region, Republic of Tatarstan . We are talking about the formation of an essentially new zone of investment activity, within which a large number of industrial, logistics, recreational facilities will appear and new jobs will be created.

Project complexity

The main complaint about the project is vagueness of the initiative. It is still unknown how many countries will become participants in the New Silk Road, what targeted projects should be implemented as part of the initiative. Even the geographical scope of the Belt and Road project is not fully defined - all existing maps of transport corridors are unofficial. The project does not contain KPIs (key performance indicators), that is, it is not clear how many roads should be built, how many containers should be sent, and so on.

The main difficulty of this project is its cost. The full implementation of the New Silk Road will require enormous costs, which can only be covered by the investments of all countries whose interests are affected by this project.

Along with large financial costs, the complexity of implementation lies in the long period of project implementation. Thus, the media mentions that the completion date of the project is 2030.

Another issue is economic feasibility. It is much cheaper to transport goods by sea than by rail. In addition, according to the European Chamber of Commerce in China, only 20% of trains from the EU to China are filled with goods, the rest return home. empty. This is explained by the fact that one of the main items of Chinese imports from the EU is engineering products. The Indian authorities criticize the Chinese project for the fact that with its loans, China is dragging the countries participating in the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) into debts that they will not be able to pay. The Chinese themselves have recently begun to invest less in countries where the implementation of the One Belt, One Road project has already begun. In 2016, the volume of foreign direct investment in these 53 countries decreased by 2%. Chinese bankers admit that many projects in which the state asked them to invest are not profitable.

Infographics ria.ru

What will change

Freight traffic is gradually changing. The main mode of transport in transit between East Asia and Western Europe, both before and now, is sea transport, providing more than 90% of the relevant cargo transportation. However, in recent years, the share of rail transport has been gradually increasing. Using railway lines, the time of delivery of goods from China to Europe is significantly reduced. If the project continues to be implemented at a good pace, then cargo flows may shift towards Central Asia. The transport and logistics network of Central Asia will expand and become more attractive.”

"One Belt" and "Silk Road": at least two routes will pass through Russia

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The Russian president may take part in the Silk Road summit, which will be held on May 14-15 this year in Beijing. Andrey Denisov, Russian Ambassador to China, told the press that Vladimir Putin had already received an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Vladimir Putin is expected to take part in the forum while on a working visit to Beijing. The summit will become an integral part of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy proclaimed by Xi Jinping in 2013 and including the creation of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road.” The main goal of the project is to create a transport and logistics system linking China with the countries of the Eurasian continent. According to experts, the Russian leader will be the main guest of the May summit in Beijing.

Today, most of the cargo is delivered from China by sea: it is relatively inexpensive, but it takes a long time, at least until the launch of the Northern Sea Route. For example, it takes about 30-40 days for a sea container ship to reach the ports of St. Petersburg.

Over the past years, Beijing has been negotiating with a number of states that are potential participants in the project, groping for the most promising routes for an overland trade route. So far, overland transportation accounts for only 6% of cargo coming from China, and most of it is transported along the Trans-Siberian Railway.

Despite the fact that Russia and China are strategic partners, Beijing is actively testing alternative trade and transport routes that bypass the Russian Federation. This tactic is explained by the desire to diversify transportation routes.

China also expects to stimulate the development of its western regions, which will receive direct access to the markets of transit countries.

Path schemes

The first and most risky route was to pass through Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. However, these plans of the Chinese leadership were upset by the expansion of the "Islamic State" *, which spread beyond Syria in 2014. It is possible that Beijing will return in the future to the creation of the Middle East branch of the Silk Road, but for this, terrorist activity in the region must first be suppressed.

Another thread of the trade route - the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TMTM, another name - the Silk Wind) - was supposed to stretch through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

The main disadvantage of the route is the presence of two sea crossings - through the Caspian and Black Seas. To optimize movement, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is being built, the launch of which will allow abandoning the ferry crossing across the Black Sea. But even one crossing through the Caspian Sea can greatly complicate the passage of goods. According to the most encouraging estimates, the route along the Silk Wind route may take about two weeks, but any storm in the Caspian can extend this time.

The third route also runs around Russia - through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine.

In January last year, a trial train was sent from the port of Chernomorsk (Odessa region) to China. Deputy Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Volodymyr Omelyan estimated the duration of the route at 10-12 days (the official even allowed the transit period to be reduced to 9 days in the future), but the train went to China for 15 days, crossing the Caspian and Black Seas on ferries. And this despite the fact that the trial train left Chernomorsk without cargo for faster passage of border procedures.

Another Ukrainian train, sent by the Ukrainian authorities to China in early 2016, simply got lost on the territory of Kazakhstan. According to media reports, the train was detained in the Karaganda region due to non-payment of transit duties.

As a result, the "Russian" route became the most successful: Kazakhstan - Russia - Belarus - Poland.

The train, loaded with Chinese goods, drove through European territory and arrived in London on January 18, 2017, having covered 12 thousand kilometers in 18 days without any overlays. The success of this direction was quite predictable. There are no sea crossings or mountain ranges on the route, it is also optimal from the point of view of military and political risks - the states along which it runs are not subject to political cataclysms. Another advantage is the membership of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus in the EAEU: common customs rules facilitate the transit of goods across borders.

“Alternative routes turned out to be not very profitable, in this case the big question is what goods will go back to China in the trains. This is necessary for the economic loading of transport routes. In this sense, the possibilities of the Russian direction may seem more attractive, for example, we can talk about the supply of raw materials to China, ”said Vladimir Petrovsky, chief researcher at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with RT.

Problem points

However, there are problems in trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China. Even with all the benefits of this cooperation, many issues still need to be resolved, not least from the Russian side. In particular, experts note shortcomings in the Russian transport infrastructure. Built under Nicholas II, the Trans-Siberian Railway still remains the main transport hub linking the eastern and western parts of Russia. The highway is fully loaded with domestic traffic and in its current state it simply cannot withstand the increase in transit traffic from China.

“Russia must do very serious “homework”, in particular, it is necessary to modernize both the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway, now there are problems with the safety and speed of movement of goods,” Petrovsky believes. - Another important aspect is the readiness of the Russian side to participate in the legislative interface project. As an example: the project "Eurasian transport highway", which should pass through the Orenburg region and the Urals to the West. China has already built its part of the road, but there is no movement on the Russian side due to the imperfection of legal norms on public-private partnership for a period of more than 10 years. This is already a matter of strategic planning, there is still a lot to be done.”

Vladimir Remyga, Director of the Coordinating Center of the International Congress of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs "The Economic Belt of the Silk Road", shares a similar point of view.

“The average speed of trains moving along the Trans-Siberian Railway is 11.7 km/h, which is the speed of a cyclist. The highway is overloaded, there are many sections on it where traffic is slowed down, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.

The Trans-Siberian needs investment and modernization, but Beijing may bet on a different route: a high-speed line to the border with Kazakhstan has already been built, and this year the second part of it, running through Kazakhstan, will be put into operation.

However, despite all the difficulties, both Russia and China are interested in cooperation - we are talking not only about a transit highway, but about a comprehensive combination of the projects of the Silk Road and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

For Beijing, cooperation with the EAEU means that the Silk Road will reach a fundamentally new level. And Moscow, for its part, is interested in investing in its infrastructure.

“Russia is counting on investments in the development of Russian infrastructure, including transport systems, this is the basis of the economic component of the Silk Road. But these investments will have to be received on a competitive basis, hard joint work will be needed, - Vladimir Petrovsky noted. “Connecting to the Silk Road is a chance for Russia to qualitatively improve infrastructure, including transport.”

Unified philosophy

In addition, Moscow expects to involve China in its integration projects, the scale of which is not inferior to the Chinese One Belt, One Road plan.

Reuters

In May 2015, the President of Russia and the President of China signed a joint statement on cooperation within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Trans-Eurasian Trade and Infrastructure Project of the Silk Road Economic Belt. As Yury Ushakov, aide to the President of the Russian Federation, explained, the goal of conjugating integration projects is "building a common economic space throughout the Eurasian continent."

As Vladimir Putin explained in an interview with RIA Novosti in the fall of 2016, in the future, the process of cooperation between the EAEU and the Silk Road could become the basis for the formation of a Greater Eurasian Partnership with the participation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“This initiative (to combine the EAEU and the Silk Road. — RT.) suggests new approaches to the formation of the world economic order, this is its strength and philosophy. It differs markedly from American projects, such as the Trans-Pacific and Transatlantic Partnership, where there is one leader - the United States. And the projects of Moscow and Beijing are based on the principles of equality, the basic principle is the mutual benefit of all participants. We can say that the EAEU and the Silk Road have the same philosophy, and they can complement each other,” Vladimir Remyga emphasized.

* Islamic State— terrorist group banned in Russia.

BEIJING, May 13 - RIA Novosti, Zhanna Manukyan. More than three years have passed since Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking at Nazarbayev University in Astana, first mentioned the idea of creating an economic belt of the Silk Road. During this time, the concept, which is now called "one belt - one road", has been learned and spoken about in many countries. Moreover, over the next two days, leaders from about 30 countries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as more than a thousand experts and representatives of international organizations will gather in Beijing for a special international forum to discuss ways to implement this idea.

The attitude towards the Chinese concept of building the economic belt of the Silk Road, which is still rather vague, is ambiguous in the world. China is positioning it as a chance to advance global economic cooperation that will benefit all countries involved. Skeptics, on the other hand, see in the Chinese initiative hegemonic plans and a desire to increase their influence, comparing it with the Marshall Plan.

The beginning of the way

In September 2013, when Xi Jinping, in his speech, recalling the history of the ancient Silk Road, also spoke about the need to improve cross-border transport infrastructure, China's readiness to participate in the creation of transport networks connecting East, West and South Asia, which would create favorable conditions for economic development of the region. The Chinese President also spoke about the expediency of simplifying trade and investment rules in order to eliminate trade barriers and improve the speed and quality of economic transactions in the region.

In general, the idea of "one belt and road" is to create infrastructure and establish relationships between the countries of Eurasia. It includes two key areas of development: the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road. We are talking about creating a trade corridor for direct deliveries of goods from east to west on preferential terms. This economic corridor should connect the Asia-Pacific region in the east with the developed European countries in the west. The population of the countries involved is more than 3 billion, and the total GDP is about 21 trillion dollars.

The initiative involves the creation of six constituent economic corridors: Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina Peninsula, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Eurasian Land Bridge. The goal is expected to be achieved through the construction of roads, ports, bridges and other infrastructure facilities, as well as the conclusion of agreements on free trade zones.

In 2014, China announced that it would allocate $40 billion to set up the Silk Road Fund, which would finance Belt and Road projects. In addition, in January 2016, the China-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank began operations in Beijing.

Since 2013, more than 100 countries and international organizations have responded positively to the initiative, according to Chinese media reports and estimates. About 50 intergovernmental cooperation agreements were signed within its framework. Chinese companies have invested about 50 billion and built 56 trade and economic cooperation zones in 20 Belt and Road countries, creating a total of 180,000 jobs for residents of these states.

Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the State Committee for Reform and Development, said ahead of the forum that China's total foreign investment in the next five years will be about 600-800 billion dollars. At the same time, the bulk of the investment will go to countries along the Belt and Road.

"Pros and cons"

Despite China's seemingly noble goals, some experts call the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative a "modern version of the American Marshall Plan" aimed at spreading its influence and establishing hegemony.

The main press organ of the Communist Party of China, the People's Daily, in a published commentary in response to this, stated that "Western commentators with Cold War prejudices look at the initiative.

"The Belt and Road Initiative, which focuses on responsibility, mutually beneficial cooperation and a sincere pursuit of common development, has provided the world with China's response to the challenges of today - a balanced, fair and comprehensive development model ... Openness, inclusiveness and mutual benefit are the features of the Belt and Road Initiative thanks to which she won the support of the international community.

Many European countries have openly expressed support for the Belt and Road Initiative, including the head of European diplomacy, Federica Mogherini, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The UK became the first developed Western economy to wish to join the AIIB.

The leaders of several EU countries have confirmed their participation in the upcoming forum. However, according to the South China Morning Post newspaper, citing European diplomats in Beijing, they have little idea of what the idea of China means, and agreed to participate in order not to spoil relations and get more information about the project. "It's been three years since Xi Jinping announced the initiative, but we're still trying to figure out what it means and what should we do about it?" - quotes the publication of a European diplomat who wished to remain anonymous.

European diplomats, according to the newspaper, argue that the leaders of their countries do not have high expectations regarding the outcome of the upcoming summit. They just want to know more about this initiative.

The United States and its main ally in Asia, Japan, remain aloof from the Chinese project. Neither the US nor Japan has joined the AIIB and the leaders of these countries will also not come to the upcoming forum. It was only on Friday that it became known that the United States had decided to send a representative, and it would be Matthew Pottinger, an officer of the National Security Council in charge of the Asian direction.

Viktor Larin, an expert at the Valdai International Discussion Club and director of the Institute of History, Archeology and Ethnography of the Peoples of the Far East, Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the One Belt, One Road project still has more geopolitics than economics.

"I believe that the One Belt, One Road project is primarily geopolitical, and only then economic. Secondly, as an economic project, it is aimed primarily at the development of the western regions of China. Thirdly, it is too early to wait for specific results, because very little time has passed.The fourth thesis: the project itself, given Chinese foreign policy concepts, is a continuation of the same policy: Deng Xiaoping's policy of openness, Jiang Zemin's policy of "going outward." we need more and more markets, more and more raw materials.This is the same idea, which today has received a new, quite successful form - "one belt - one road," Larin told RIA Novosti.

According to the expert, "the Chinese project has more geopolitics than economics, because the main idea of China's geopolitical doctrines is a peaceful environment, and a peaceful environment can be created primarily by economic methods - China is 100% sure of this." According to Larin, Russia is also interested in this. This is the point of contact. When specific interests appear, they sometimes do not coincide and diverge greatly. However, they are agreed upon in the negotiation process.

Alexander Gabuev, head of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Region program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, in turn notes that China does not impose its project on neighboring countries. "It is based on the fact that China has great economic power, huge capital reserves, vast experience in infrastructure construction, large markets, etc. And he is ready to provide this to the outside world in order to develop together," he said in an interview. with RIA Novosti Gabuev.

Answering the question whether fears that only China would benefit from the Silk Road project are justified, he expressed the opinion that this would "depend on the skill of the negotiators and how they can defend their economic interests."

Russia on the Silk Road

In May 2015, the leaders of Russia and China adopted a joint statement on conjugation of two concepts - the concept of building the economic belt of the Silk Road and the concept of developing the Eurasian Economic Union.

Gabuev notes that the expectations of the Russian side from the implementation of the Chinese Silk Road project have not yet come true. “Russia has not yet seen much in the Belt and Road, since all expectations that a lot of cheap money or politically motivated money will come have not materialized,” the RIA Novosti expert said.

According to Gabuev, "the only place where large investments came to Russia was an investment in Yamal LNG and Sibur through the Silk Road Fund, but rather China used the fund as a financial wallet, not connected to the global financial system and immune from US sanctions" . He noted that negotiations are also underway to conclude an agreement to reduce non-tariff barriers between the Eurasian Union and China, but "they (negotiations) will go on for several years."

As Larin, in turn, notes, Russia and China have a common idea - cooperation within the framework of a single large Eurasia, however, it is "harder" with specific projects. “It’s harder with specific projects. There are regular, incessant attempts to find one, second, fifth, twentieth points of contact and move towards a larger goal through specific projects,” he added.

The Executive Secretary of the Business Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Sergei Kanavsky, believes that the project to build a new Silk Road opens up great potential for Russia in the future.

"The potential is huge, the potential is great, interesting. It's all about the initiative, working out, protecting one's own interests, finding common ground for synergy, and not for disunity," he said in an interview with RIA Novosti. At the same time, he recalled that the project is under development, defining the main ways of development.

In general, Kanavsky noted that the SCO Business Council considers the initiative to create an economic belt of the Silk Road as part of the general trends of Eurasian economic cooperation.

The topic of the New Silk Road from the Middle Kingdom to Asia, Africa and Western Europe is now probably more of a concern not for journalists, but for economists. Although for Russia and a number of other countries the idea of becoming a global Chinese transit country warms the ear, it burns the pocket sensitively. So far, the intercontinental super-construction only promises boundless prospects, but it already requires almost cosmic expenses. At the same time, the project has quite enough risks. First of all, these are the risks of globalization and the question of whether China will remain the same "world factory" a decade later, or will production be distributed in some other way, which, for example, is already observed in America, when Trump demands the return of jobs, technologies and power back home. That is, it may turn out that there will suddenly be nothing special to carry along this “road”. Especially for FederalPress, Dmitry Lagun, CEO of AsstrA-Associated Traffic AG, analyzed the financial and economic aspects of this project:

“The cost of Russian investments, as well as the forecast of their return, is currently impossible due to the fact that information on the volume of investments in this project by the Russian Federation is not published in the media. China is the main initiator and investor of the New Silk Road project. Some publications mention information that by 2030 three trillion US dollars will be invested in the project. The Silk Road Fund is the main funding platform, with an estimated investment of $40 billion, with a focus on infrastructure investment. The fund operates in accordance with Chinese law, and foreign investors can participate in its projects. The capital of the Asian Bank and the BRICS Bank can also be attracted to finance projects, the infrastructure investments of each of them will potentially amount to 100 billion US dollars.

Beijing says the project will build or network roads, railways, ports, oil and gas pipelines and power plants along routes that will link China with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, Africa and Europe. Along with the creation of a railway link between China and Russia, a project of a high-speed highway connecting Europe and Western China is planned and is currently being implemented.

Infographics of the Kommersant newspaper

On the territory of Russia, the Rosavtodor is implementing the project. The section from St. Petersburg to Moscow (M-11 road) is estimated at 373 billion rubles. A section of the highway from M-11 to the Central Ring Road (TsKAD). The construction of two sections (1st and 5th) of the Central Ring Road is already underway, the rest in October 2017 will be played at concession tenders. The high-speed highway, which should pass between the existing federal roads M-7 "Volga" and M-5 "Ural" through Gus-Khrustalny, Murom, Ardatov, south of Nizhny Novgorod, will cost about 400 billion rubles. A 297-kilometer Shali-Bavly highway is already being built on the territory of Tatarstan, and a section with a length of about 40 km. is already functioning. The highway will connect the existing federal highways M-7 and M-5, thus increasing their connectivity. The cost of this project is not called.

In the Republic of Bashkortostan, they are going to build a 282-kilometer section of the international transport corridor (ITC) from the village of Bavly to the city of Kumertau, its cost is estimated at 156 billion rubles. In the Orenburg region, it is planned to build a 172-kilometer section bypassing Orenburg, Saraktash and to the borders with Kazakhstan - 84 billion rubles. Thus, the entire Russian section of the ITC from St. Petersburg to the borders with Kazakhstan should be ready by 2023, some of its sections will be launched by 2018. In addition, by 2020, the reconstruction of the M-1 Belarus highway will be carried out, which should provide a direct exit for goods transported along the corridor to the Republic of Belarus and Western European countries.

The influence of the path on the regional economy

The direct effects of the implementation of the considered international transport corridors include a sharp reduction in railway tariffs, to the level of freight rates for sea transport and, possibly, lower. This will lead to a reduction in transport costs and the cost of transportation, and ultimately to the economic "approximation" of the inland regions (Siberia and the Urals of Russia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Shaanxi of China), as well as the countries of Central Asia and Kazakhstan to the leading centers world, sea and ocean ports and thereby removing one of the main brakes on development. There will be a significant increase in the throughput capacity of highways, accompanied by an increase in traffic volumes, freight and passenger turnover, which is necessary for closer economic consolidation and economic recovery of adjacent territories. Russia, China, Kazakhstan and other countries will be guaranteed to receive tangible income from performing the functions of a transport bridge between Western Europe and East Asia.

The indirect effect of the implementation of these megaprojects is expected to be even more significant, which consists in the strongest multiplicative general economic and social impact of international corridors on the vast areas adjacent to them. Thus, within the zone of influence of the Trans-Siberian Railway, there are the most developed, inhabited and populated regions of Siberia, the conditions and possibilities of which do not fundamentally differ from the average Russian ones. The construction of the superhighway will secure for the southern part of Siberia, which has relatively comfortable natural and climatic conditions, the status of a territory that is a priority for powerful integrated development. The creation of the Great Silk Road on a modern railway basis will be an effective option for including the still lagging deep northwestern and central parts of China into the zone of advanced development. The formation of the Northern Corridor of the Silk Road can bring a particularly noticeable effect to Kazakhstan, since rich resource areas and large urban agglomerations (Astana and Karaganda) in the east and north of the country fall into the zone of its stimulating influence.

Project complexity

The main claim to the project is the vagueness of the initiative. It is still unknown how many countries will become participants in the New Silk Road, what targeted projects should be implemented as part of the initiative. Even the geographical scope of the Belt and Road project is not fully defined - all existing maps of transport corridors are unofficial. The project does not contain KPIs (key performance indicators), that is, it is not clear how many roads should be built, how many containers should be sent, and so on.

Along with large financial costs, the complexity of implementation lies in the long period of project implementation. Thus, the media mentions that the completion date of the project is 2030.

Another issue is economic feasibility. It is much cheaper to transport goods by sea than by rail. In addition, according to the European Chamber of Commerce in China, only 20% of trains from the EU to China are filled with goods, the rest return home empty. This is explained by the fact that one of the main items of Chinese imports from the EU is engineering products. The Indian authorities criticize the Chinese project for the fact that with its loans, China is dragging the countries participating in the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) into debts that they will not be able to pay. The Chinese themselves have recently begun to invest less in countries where the implementation of the One Belt, One Road project has already begun. In 2016, the volume of foreign direct investment in these 53 countries decreased by 2%. Chinese bankers admit that many projects in which the state asked them to invest are not profitable.

Infographics ria.ru

What will change

Freight traffic is gradually changing. The main mode of transport in transit between East Asia and Western Europe, both before and now, is maritime transport, which provides more than 90% of the corresponding cargo transportation. However, in recent years, the share of rail transport has been gradually increasing. Using railway lines, the time of delivery of goods from China to Europe is significantly reduced. If the project continues to be implemented at a good pace, then cargo flows may shift towards Central Asia. The transport and logistics network of Central Asia will expand and become more attractive.”

Photo: Evgeny Odinokov, RIA Novosti