What happens after the selection. Domestic politics and economics

Mikhail Khazin on what will happen after the presidential election. with my comment

P.S from me

To be honest, I am depressing by the amount of "srach" in social networks about the figure of Grudinin. It seems to me that our fellow citizens live within their myths and do not want to notice the real facts:
1. In reality, power is not replaced peacefully, but transferred within the framework of internal agreements: you can see this in the example of Putin, who received it from the hands of Yeltsin, then handed it over to Medvedev, and took it back at the federal level. At the local level, you can see how Ishaev changed to Shport, Mikhalev to Klimov. Even the election of Mr. Furgal as a deputy of the State Duma from Komsomolsk took place within the framework of the agreements between the authorities and the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party. Therefore, I have no doubt that as a result of the "election of President Putin" Putin will win.

2. Pavel Grudinin is primarily a modern businessman, that is, with all his pluses and minuses, but an adequate person. At the same time, he was nominated not only from the Communist Party, but also from the Permanent Conference of the National Patriotic Forces. That is, it is supported by diverse political organizations of our country, who believe that the country needs a change in the economic model. If in total more citizens vote for Grudinin or the communist Suraykin than for representatives of liberal economic theory in the person of Titov, Sobchak and so on. Putin in this case receives a clear signal that the people want to see in the government not Medvedev, Nabiulina and Oreshkin, but Glazyev, Delyagin and other politicians focused on the real development of the country. And apparently, the signal has already gone: Putin announced the need for a monthly payment for a child in the amount of 10 thousand rubles.

3. Despite the “communist” rhetoric of the leadership of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, this party has long ceased to be communist in its essence, and it is more correct to call it social democratic. And there is nothing bad in this either for the supporters of capitalism or for socialism, since the modern leadership of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, apparently, does not have a real goal of returning to the socialist system in our country. Supporters of socialism can not swear, but remember that the Bolshevik Party, which came to power in October 1917, was called the Russian Social Democratic Labor Party (Bolsheviks). Besides, remember who Primakov and Maslyukov were in the 1998 government? The communists, who did not start cardinal reforms, but only put things in order in the economy, and calmed the appetites of the monopolists. Thanks to this, economic growth began in the country, which acted by inertia even after they left the government for several more years.

4. Grudinin is charged with the lack of a coherent program of action in the external arena. And it doesn’t need to be voiced, since it boils down to the following: in order to start restoring our own economy, the country will have to be disconnected from the IMF, withdraw from the WTO, restrict the import and export of foreign currency, and do much more. That is, the owners of our "liberals" are immediately deprived of hundreds of billions of dollars and access to Russian resources. How do you think they will react to this fact against the backdrop of their own economic crisis? They will immediately try to restore access to the lost resources: they will arrange a coup, and if it does not work, they will go to us in tanks, or they will combine both options.
What are the possible options for international politics in such situations? It's like at school, where the "gopnik" just like that from the nerd, from whom he regularly extorted money, will not lag behind. Our country is now in the position of this same school "nerd", who the gopniks cannot finally deal with, because they know that he took out a rubber gun and began to practice karate.
Now, no one among politicians will dare to voice such a picture to the world: they clearly understand that our people, frightened by the memories of the Great Patriotic War, for the most part will immediately reject such an option: “if only there was no war”, “we live in poverty, but in peace " and so on. But the fact is that such a situation has developed that such a situation cannot be tolerated already for “medical reasons”: the incomes of the population are falling, business is dying out, and the process of updating defense equipment requires further funding, since the threat of external invasion, despite all peaceful initiatives, not only does not decrease, but increases many times over. And something needs to be done about it.

So we all have something to think about.

Alexander Aldiev

What will happen after the presidential elections in Russia in 2018? What kind of wars and upheavals will Russians expect in the next 6 years. Analytics and forecast of Putin's re-election.

So, Putin's election ended with a quite expected result. The discrepancy between and , a huge difference between the real turnout and voiced, ballot stuffing showed that the elections were . What awaits us after this?

Will there be protests against electoral fraud?

The opposition, participating in the elections, has very clearly shown its "pocketing". Grudinin and Sobchak were generally satisfied with the results, and the journalist Shevchenko even sang a latent ode to the leader, only very mildly criticizing the organizers of the elections. Many voters are very disappointed after such statements, so this "opposition" can be safely buried.

After such statements, it became finally clear why Alexei Navalny did not cooperate with any of the official candidates. And his support will certainly increase now. In fact, Navalny remains the only independent politician who will denounce thieves, liars and corrupt officials. The rest depends only on him - whether he will be able to protect himself from the Chechen bullet, another criminal case and maintain his reputation.

Will there be protests? It must be understood that most of the population in these elections voted for Grudinin. Shevchenko clearly outlined their next steps - "non-violent resistance".

Grudinin is Putin's man, and he won't lead people to the square. Therefore, mass protests and clashes, of course, will not happen.

Navalny does not yet have a strong enough audience, the police and the FSB have beaten up the activists. But with the intensification of the economic crisis, as well as with the increase in the pocket opposition’s “skinning” in ties with the Kremlin, protest moods will grow.

Domestic politics and economics

Putin will continue to isolate Russia, which means that significant economic growth, the lifting of sanctions and the revival of foreign trade are not expected. Moreover, problems are expected even with the sale of hydrocarbons - the West has already "slaughtered" South Stream, and the threat of sanctions hangs over Nord Stream 2, which was again talked about after Putin's re-election.

What awaits Russians after the 2018 presidential election? Several pompous social programs will be deployed, widely advertised, but in fact, against the backdrop of falling living standards, do not bring any benefit. The ruble will strengthen, but not significantly, so the general crisis will increase the progression of the budget deficit. Mortality, unemployment, liquidation of enterprises will show a small but stable growth. There can be no positive shifts, this can be seen from the dynamics of recent years.

In general, it's okay, but by the end of the mandate, Putin's long-term stagnation will begin to give way to a rather dull life sediment.

Putin will continue to invest in the military machine. There will be no growth in civil technologies, business, agriculture, infrastructure improvements. For 18 years, he finally showed that he was not capable of this, and he had no other choice.

Since now Putin is in dire need of revenues to the budget, the tax burden will definitely increase, otherwise he will not survive. So the price of gasoline, fuel, road tax, excise and taxes will rise little by little. A few days after the election, they started talking about raising personal income tax to 15%, and introducing an increased fee on cars older than 5 years.

At the same time, pressure on citizens and military propaganda will increase. Without this, it will not be possible to consolidate the society. The search for “enemies of the people” will increase, the demonization of the West and the United States in the media will grow.

Foreign policy

Dozens of cadet schools have opened in Russia in recent years. Every day, the Kremlin media write about new weapons and advances in military technology.

The last two stages of the Putin government have always been in conflict, so after the 2018 elections, another war should also be expected.

The mop shoots once a year, Putin works 5 times slower.

Since Putin and his pro-Western oligarchs will not dare to enter into a direct confrontation with the Americans, the war will naturally be local. This is either another attack on Ukraine with the penetration of a corridor in Transnistria, or increased intervention in the Middle East. On the territory of the former Soviet Union, a conflict is, of course, more likely, given the growing budget deficit.

In corporate law there is such a construction as "75% plus 1 share".

This design suggests that a shareholder who owns so many shares can do whatever he wants with an economic object. The other parties can either swallow it or leave.

I think that the St. Petersburg "lawyers" did not just throw their votes up to this figure.

Judging by the press conference, with a high degree of probability we will see during the next government of V. Putin:

1. constitutional reform;
2. escalation of the conflict to almost the entire territory of Ukraine, up to Kyiv;
3. the strongest restriction of freedom of speech on the Internet due to increased responsibility and identification of users.

• expulsion of consular officers;


• restriction of travel to countries with terrorist attacks (and they will "arrive in time", most likely) and to "hostile" countries;


• taxes on cash currency transactions + restrictions on the amount of currency purchases.

We will see this now. IN current situation , when the main emphasis (including financial) will be placed on an aggressive foreign policy under the hooting of the crowd and cutting budget funds for infrastructure projects, the children and grandchildren of temporary workers who plunder the country will grow up. They will need something to eat. Somehow compete with each other for getting into Forbes. They and their parents will be given the remaining large, medium-sized private businesses, and those who protect their peace will be given small businesses. There is nowhere to get more money. Dashing (and you still have no idea how dashing they will be) the 90s will return in full in the next 2 years in the form of official chairs coming to the checkout in the entrepreneur's store.

In this post and in the comments, we will not discuss the results of the Elections. Now it doesn't make sense anymore. Who wanted to, made a choice. Whoever thought that he was smarter than the system, they put a tick for such a person. All.

As for political activity in the country as a whole. It will fade away and become more and more soft (perhaps, depending on the real voices of Grudinin, he will be given some kind of role). Navalny fulfilled the role assigned to him - he completely ruined the opposition movement, discredited it, removed the main tension in society, which had formed by the time of Bolotnaya. Now [AP] it will be gradually merged, and the next logical link - Sobchak-Gudkov, will be brought onto the stage, a link that will finally undermine all confidence in the leaders of the opposition, will cause disgust [due to certain reasons ] to all this movement among all segments of the population (even among those who previously supported such a movement), people will be afraid to join it and gradually disperse in different directions to their corners. Apathy. Political apathy and peace await us in the coming years.

However, I think this will be the biggest political mistake of the authorities. Because internal (infrastructural) problems in the country will grow. Landfills poison underground water and the ecology in cities, power plants bring down energy consumers, interruptions in the supply of medicines to hospitals leave people without the most necessary ... man-made disasters in serious industries leave behind a large number of direct and indirect victims ... At some point , I think, all this will be superimposed on a very lean year (against the background of the imperfect development of our agriculture, which all these years has moved forward solely thanks to fertile soil, pasture and almost ideal climate in a large part of the territory of the lower part of the country). The people's anger will be expressed in an even greater growth of internal tension, only now in each person separately. This will be expressed in the strong aggression of each individual person. And crawl out in the statistics on offenses.

Freedom of speech will have to lock itself into the perimeter of the kitchen.

• as usual, do not sit straight on the *opera;


• take as much as possible from the opportunities provided and create such opportunities;


• if you are in business, then there should be at least 2-3 different areas (industries / specifics);


• if you work, then take a part-time job;


• do not waste your time on pointless arguments, sitting in your pants, looking at pictures and videos on the Internet;


• do not waste and keep the accumulated in currency and metal basket But not in banks;


• learn to manage your capital more actively (but without excessive risk);


• prepare to devaluation jump , which will and will be very negative in terms of consequences;


• be more active in expressing your will at elections of all levels (starting, most importantly, with municipal ones), express your civic position on the events that are happening around you and prevent you from living (burning landfills, etc.), defend your rights for the sake of your future family, but at the same time not to participate in the illegal political provocations of the "new oppositionists".

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On Wednesday, December 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was going to nominate his candidacy for the post of head of state in 2018 as well. "Dialogue" found out from political scientists what awaits the Russians in the elections and after them.

What will change in the political course of Russia?

Andrey Manoilo: After the elections, if Vladimir Vladimirovich wins (and I have no doubt about this), there will be a serious restructuring of the state apparatus and the economy. That is, all those things that are not done on the eve of the elections will happen after Putin's victory. First of all, this will affect the personnel apparatus. There will be a very serious, as it is now called, personnel rotation. We saw the elements of this rotation in the example of governors and in the example of the resignations of generals from law enforcement agencies.

After the victory, the restructuring of the economy will begin. And it will most likely be carried out in two main directions. First, the leaders will be put in their place, they are the owners of some large state corporations, who have decided that they can even dictate their own rules to the president. There were several such stories, and they will definitely not be left without attention. Secondly, it should be expected that the country will begin to apply a large set of anti-crisis measures, because the economic crisis continues to deepen.

Dmitry Oreshkin: There will be no changes, everything is already formed. Autarky will be ( Separation of the national economy with the assignment of the domestic market to monopolies — Dialog news agency). Accordingly, there will be a continuation of the not very hasty tightening of the screws, because you need to protect yourself from enemy foreign agents who tell the truth and thus destroy virtual reality. There will be a retreat to the East, and not geographically, because China is not very interested in a political alliance with Putin - Putin is rather weak for him - and such an East, more "mental" - like Iran, Uzbekistan. What does he have now? Iran, Syria. This is third world level. But, of course, this cannot be said. We will say that we are rising from our knees, doubling the GDP. Given that the real share of Russia in the world economy is about 2%, and the real share of the Russian population in the world population is less than 2%. This is a despicable reality. It's just a third world country. But it will exist, nothing will happen. Iran exists in the position of a regional power. And Nigeria is even better - it sells its oil, and 200 million people live there. In Russia, there will be slowdown, stagnation, depopulation, but, of course, this will not happen in 3 months.

Fedor Krasheninnikov: Basically, of course, nothing will change. Putin has been in power for 19 years, and everything that he could change for the better, he has already tried to change. It is naive to believe that after so many years a person will open up from some unexpected side and suddenly do something that no one expected. I think you can talk about replacing some people with others, but even new people will not turn out to be incredible, super talented, made from a different test. It will be all the same boring Putin apparatchiks that he has placed everywhere. It is hardly worth waiting for miracles, in short. This is his course, it was he who invented it, it was he who conducted it. Why do you think it will suddenly change? In the 2012 elections, he did not promise us that there would be Crimea, sanctions, a fall in the economy, a fall in the ruble. None of us know what he's really going to do when he becomes president.

Why did Putin announce his nomination just yesterday?

Andrey Manoilo: There were two main reasons. The pause was technical. First, he staged a stress test for his associates. When he remains silent, the date of the election approaches, and the environment is faced with a choice. Not knowing what decision the president would make - whether to go to the polls or not, to nominate a successor or not to nominate anyone at all - the elite began to waver. It is clear that after the elections, the one who supports the right candidate will be closer to the authorities and the president. If Vladimir Vladimirovich is going to go to the polls, then, of course, he should then be supported and positioned as a supporter of Vladimir Vladimirovich. But if he suddenly decides to put forward some kind of tandem instead of himself, as was the case with Medvedev, then in this case it is necessary to break away in time and join the candidate whom the president indicates. And how to make this choice? If indeed the situation had developed in such a way that a successor would have been nominated, then those who would have joined the successor in the first minutes, even before Vladimir Vladimirovich pointed him out, would have received the best places. And those who would have rushed to express their loyalty afterward would have ended up in a hat analysis and might not have received anything at all. Officials and associates hung on a thread and waited for someone to show firmness, loyalty and endurance.

Second, as long as the president did not declare that he would be nominated as a candidate, he could not become an object of criticism from the opposition and the collective West, because if there is no candidate, there is no object for criticism. It would be strange if the West began to criticize that Putin has ambitions to become president for a new term even before he announced it. Therefore, there was silence. That is, the opponents, of course, would like to launch a broad information campaign, but there was no informational occasion. Now he announced this, but he announced it at a time when, in fact, a few months remained, and during this time all the oppositionists could begin to attack and attack him. But there will be no time to launch a powerful campaign against him as president, given that the New Year holidays are ahead, when the entire Russian population falls into a state of political apathy. And in the West before that - Christmas. The West also falls out. In this regard, no matter how well thought out the information attack against our president is, it most likely will not reach its audiences. This is pretty accurate and well thought out.

There is a certain probability that the collective West was preparing for this scenario, and it has some kind of candidate (and this is not Navalny or Sobchak, but an unknown person, with a clean biography and a clean slate, sufficiently resourced), which the collective West can now start unwind according to the Macron scenario, is still different from zero, but not large.

Dmitry Oreshkin: Why doesn't he run in September? Because the dramaturgy must be kept. We had to worry about whether it would advance or not advance. Although I do not know people who were nervous about this, but the servants and the environment built just such a model. Pay attention: in a day or two, Peskov says - get ready. The people started up, ran to buy soap to wash their necks - now, it will happen. But first you need to go to the Bishops' Council, take communion, receive a blessing, as it were. In the morning, a volunteer is sent to ask: “Well, are you ready?” "No, it's still early, wait." Everything is Brezhnev-style - not in Moscow, because they do not like Moscow, and among the working people, in a large industrial complex. There are three options to choose from: a production complex, a collective farm (but we don’t have one and the picture is bad - fields. Let Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko pick potatoes) or the third option - a spaceship. But the spaceship may not take off, as you know, so the choice is our industrial giant. The people all relaxed: “Thank God, come on, bro, pour, Vladimir Vladimirovich did not abandon us, we will continue to rise from our knees and double GDP.”

This style is dangerous not only because it resembles the Soviet Union, but also because those who invent it do not understand that it is ridiculous. They think that this is really important - this bishops' cathedral, this greatness and other rubbish. This fundamentally contradicts the Putin who was at the beginning - such a simple kid in a T-shirt who speaks a simple human language. And [now] it is already almost the anointed of God - but this is not scary, but the fact that they do not understand that they look ridiculous, like Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev.

Fedor Krasheninnikov: I am absolutely sure that the announcement was made yesterday out of necessity. They clearly wanted to drag out this so-called intrigue for a long time, but yesterday was a gloomy day due to the exclusion of the Russian team from the Olympics in Korea and, obviously, in order to overcome this failure of the entire foreign policy, to cover up the inability to negotiate with anyone (because they are used to Russia should not negotiate with anyone, and in foreign policy - too, including in sports), it was necessary to put on a good face, divert people's attention. Obviously, Putin had to draw his only trump card.

Will the "new faces" be allowed before the elections?

Andrey Manoilo: They are already admitted. There are no obstacles preventing the same Sobchak from participating in the elections. Sobchak has only one problem - the presence of her own electoral support. She needs to collect a certain number of signatures. This is a rather difficult task for a person who is known in Moscow clubs and in Dom-2. If Sobchak manages to comply with the requirements of the Russian electoral law, then, in general, there are no problems. And if it doesn't work, it's entirely her fault. The same applies to other candidates from the systemic or non-systemic opposition who have been nominated or who, perhaps, will be nominated. But I think that no one will nominate.

Dmitry Oreshkin: Navalny will definitely not be allowed in, this was clear a year ago. And Sobchak will definitely be allowed, otherwise why would they pull her out? It seems obvious to me. At the same time, it is clear that there are some political agreements. She is a smart woman, she indicated her right to say whatever she wanted, and she was agreed on this. Otherwise, it will not be Sobchak, but a wooden cabinet - therefore, of course, they allowed it, they gave the go-ahead. In the Kremlin, thank God, they are not fools: they understand that it is impossible to completely dry up the situation. Of course, she will stigmatize, criticize, talk about mistakes with Crimea, and so on. After all, if she does not stigmatize, who will listen to her? But her fundamental difference from Navalny is that he really wants to become president, but she does not. Everyone will be pleased because she will secure her political status as a young rising star. And the Kremlin will be pleased, as it will ensure the turnout. As always in Russian politics, one cannot say that she is a spoiler and only a spoiler, that she is a project of the Kremlin - and at the same time, one cannot say that she is not a project of the Kremlin and not a spoiler.

Fedor Krasheninnikov: I would not put Sobchak and Navalny in the same row, because Sobchak is obviously a candidate quite suitable for Putin, otherwise she would not have been invited to the federal channel and not allowed to speak there. As we know, Navalny has never been invited to any federal channel. Even if she is allowed to participate - which I highly doubt - she will be one of the voices in the choir of people whose task is to add intrigue to an event in which there is no intrigue. But I think that, most likely, it will not be allowed, because against the background of other old people, Putin should seem young, energetic, and in general, nothing should distract attention from Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. This is his holiday, his carnival, he will be a prima donna there, he is in the title role. Why does he need any unnecessary worries?

Navalny differs from Sobchak in that he says things personally unpleasant to Putin. If he is released on the screen, he will personally scold Putin. He will say that Putin should resign, because sitting in power for so many years is too much. That is, to say something about which it is impossible to speak in any case. In our country, you can scold, criticize, demand anything, but you can’t hit Putin with direct fire. Navalny is an uncontrollable person in this sense. Putin wants everything to be like during his speech at the forum of volunteers or at this plant in Nizhny Novgorod. So that the overtaken enthusiastic crowd joyfully shouted: “We support you, we are for you!” And there should be no opponents.

What is the real support for Putin in Russia?

Andrey Manoilo: Putin has a huge rating. They give different figures, but we can confidently say that he now has more than 50% real rating, if you approach, discarding all factors. This corresponds to reality. None of his rivals has such a rating.

Dmitry Oreshkin: Ask about Leonid Brezhnev in 1977, everyone will say: “Yes, of course we support it,” and then they go home and scoff in the kitchen. Now it is precisely the situation when people, thank God, not stupid, answer all questions with “well, yes.” That's the trouble. And who, apart from Brezhnev, could be supported in 1978 or 1981? We also support Vladimir Putin. And sociologists do not lie, people answer like that. But this support is out of desperation, because there is no one else. And the rating is desperate. And they will not go to the polls, because it is impossible to vote for him.

The turnout will not be as high as we would like. It will not be very low, because there are electoral sultanates that 90% will draw - there are about 15 regions of them. There are governors who understand that their career depends on what numbers they show. There will be no overwhelming turnout. Everything will take place in an atmosphere of high labor enthusiasm and general enthusiasm, but they are not real. The most dangerous thing is this detachment from reality in which he [Putin] seems to live. Leonid Ilyich [Brezhnev] also believed, and Nikita Sergeyevich [Khrushchev] believed, not to mention Iosif Vissarionovich [Stalin].

Fedor Krasheninnikov: Naturally, supporters are gathered at election events. This is a normal pre-election technology that is used in all countries. Crowds also gather at Navalny's, shouting "yes!" Does this mean that all of Russia supports Navalny? Probably not. And it is absolutely certain that those people who are gathered on the principle of loyalty so that they shout “yes, Putin!”, “Yes, we support you!” represent only themselves and no one else. Support is not comprehensive at all. I have no doubt that Putin has quite a lot of support, because in any society there is a fairly large percentage of people who tend to support any incumbent government, whatever it may be. And there are such people in Russia; Of course, Putin also has devoted admirers... But, according to my feelings, these people are not eighty percent. I think around fifty percent. And if there was a really bright campaign, where Putin was opposed by someone convinced and ready to go to the end, then it is not known how it would have ended, the percentage could have fallen.

Therefore, the only way for Putin to win with an impressive percentage is simply to prevent those people who are ready to seriously fight him and who will interfere with him. This is a colossal administrative mobilization. All state employees who can be driven to the polling stations and forced to vote for Putin. And in this way, of course, he will receive the percentage he wants. I see no other reason to form a turnout, I do not understand why people will go to the polls. Because if people are for Putin, then what's the point of going there? Everyone knows that Putin will win. He cannot lose this election. It is his birthday and it will be strange if it is not him who congratulates him. Accordingly, those who are for him can decide - why go, he will still win. And those who are against him... All the more, I don't understand why they should go to these elections. Because it is known that he will win. They [the authorities] themselves killed all intrigue in these elections, and the only thing left for them is administrative mobilization under pressure, on kicks, and so on. Well, all sorts of lotteries and other dirty tricks.

Prepared by Masha Vse-Taki and Maria Osina / IA Dialog

In many countries, elections are preceded by a sharp increase in public spending and a surge in inflation. Russians should rather fear what will happen to the economy after the presidential election

I want to thank the readers of Forbes magazine for the large number of responses to my first column, which pleasantly surprised me. I will be waiting for your further comments. Almost everyone commented that you liked the style of presenting the problems of the Russian economy, devoid of technical details and professional jargon. Many of you have also asked me to explain how the situation in the Russian economy will develop in 2018, namely, what impact the presidential elections in March and the holding of the World Cup in June-July will have on it.

Let's start with the presidential election. In many countries, elections are preceded by a surge in generally wasteful government spending and a surge in inflation. This does not apply to Russia (the budget deficit is still below 2% of GDP, and annual inflation is at a historically low level of about 4%). Therefore, the elections will have virtually no impact on macroeconomics and the budget. More relevant is the question of what will happen after the elections in March. If the new reform agenda removes structural constraints on competition, innovation, and the skills of the workforce, that would be a big plus. But even in this case, one should not expect noticeable results in 2018. Such reforms bring important long-term benefits, but they do not happen immediately.

Second, the World Cup. The benefits for the Russian economy associated with increased investment in building and upgrading infrastructure for the World Cup were largely exhausted in 2017. Of course, the economy will benefit in 2018 due to the growth in consumption and services in the coming summer. However, unfortunately, as history teaches us, these benefits are as temporary as crowds of fans.

In 2016, The Journal of Economic Perspectives published an article "Chasing Gold: The Economics of the Olympic Games" by Robert Baade and Victor Matheson. The authors came to a sobering conclusion: “In most cases, the Olympics turn out to be financial losses for the cities in which they are held; a net benefit is only possible under very specific and unusual conditions.” So in a purely economic sense, one should not expect too much from the World Cup.

But there is a third event, if you can call it that, which has, in a sense, escaped public attention. We are talking about the gradual return of Russian capital to their homeland. In 2017, adjusted for Rosneft’s exceptional privatization deal, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Russia increased by about 25% year-on-year to a total of about $25 billion. There are several reasons for this, such as economic growth and improving the business climate.

However, in the first half of 2017, most FDI came from offshore zones, which are usually associated with capital outflows and a phenomenon called “capital circulation”, a process in which Russian funds disguised as foreign capital are returned to homeland in the form of FDI. This is an important issue for Russia (my colleagues and I published a discussion about what to do when FDI is neither foreign nor direct). Be that as it may, the money is returned to Russia.

The question is whether they will be put to good use. The answer is yes, but only if there are enough worthy projects. However, they don't seem to be. Thus, one of the criteria is the share of investment expenditures in GDP. In Russia, investments account for approximately 21% of GDP (compared to 43% in China). In 2018, the imbalance between supply and demand for capital may increase. To eliminate this imbalance, Russia will have to make serious efforts to improve the investment climate. The country has made impressive strides, climbing to 35th out of 190 economies in the world in this year's World Bank Doing Business rankings. This should be recognized and welcomed. However, Doing Business assesses only part of the overall investment climate. Other relevant aspects of the investment climate include competition and scrutiny policy, where reform currently under way could improve the situation by balancing the supply and demand for capital.

So what can we expect in 2018? In general, it can be expected that the situation will not change. Thus, the World Bank predicts that in 2018 economic growth will remain approximately at the level of 2017 and will be 1.7%. While there may be slight up and down swings in growth, along with upside and downside risks (as outlined in our recent Russia Economic Report), overall 2018 will be the same as 2017.

However, it is more important to think not about whether the economy will grow by 1.5% or 2%, but rather about whether Russia will be able to approach the world average in terms of economic growth (about 3%).

How important is narrowing the gap with global average growth, you may ask? If the Russian economy grows by 1.7%, it will take 42 years to double its GDP. However, if it grows at the world average rate of 3%, then, as simple calculations show, Russia will be able to double its GDP in just 24 years, that is, 18 years faster. That is why it is so important to close the gap with the performance of the global economy.

However, it must be recognized that, in the absence of measures to ease the serious structural constraints discussed above, it will not be easy to compensate for such a difference of more than one percentage point. If something unexpected does not happen in Russia, then, as in Ivan Andreevich Krylov's fable about the swan, cancer and pike, in 2018 the Russian economy will remain in the same place.