Blog subprimes latest articles. Political scientist Alexander Podoprigora talks about when and why power will change in the Chelyabinsk region. “It’s just that other people will come. It's inevitable because it's logical."

Alexander Vasilyevich, is there life after the last elections, or is everything just beginning?

The elections were over - this is the ritual that had to be observed in order to formalize and legitimize the new head of the region, and now they should be forgotten like a bad dream and work on. Everyone understands perfectly well that “this” could be called an election only very conditionally - rather an artificial political technological construction, when the main contender for the post of governor had no competitors and the main problem was to drag people to the polls at any cost in the absence of intrigue and competition. So there is nothing to brag about here and it's time to finish "rewarding the uninvolved and punishing the innocent", as we usually do.

But in the end, this problem was solved?

Yes thank God. Although, as far as I know, it was largely resolved between 15:00 and 20:00 on the voting day (when the main flow of voters passed, and the turnout in Chelyabinsk was less than 20%) by the selfless work of the election commissions and district administrations, who "stand on their ears" and diligently, let's say, cleaned the voter lists... Of course, there were initial shortcomings of the election commission - there were many cases of being on the lists of voters who no longer live at these addresses, rent apartments, or simply - left, died, went into the army and so on. By the way, the areas of Chelyabinsk new buildings - Parkovy, Churilovo, Poplar Alley and so on - were seriously affected in this regard ... All this had to be done, of course, long before the elections, but the authorities themselves believed in their own publications that everything was fine and people eager to vote for Dubrovsky...

Were you surprised by more than 86 percent of the votes for Dubrovsky?

No, not at all. In such “referendum-type” elections, the fewer people come, the greater the percentage of votes received by the winner, that is, in our case, Dubrovsky. If the turnout were 20 percent, then all 95 percent would vote for him. But such a plan, the result would be to some extent even shameful for the authorities.

Because the level of turnout is a question of real legitimation of the winner?

And so too. But this is not even a question of political technologies, but of politics itself. Now I will explain. I cited the example of Trekhgorny in my blog, where at the same time there was a real struggle in the competitive elections of the head of the city and where the United Russia party was in opposition to the current head of the city of Olkhovskaya. And there it turned out that more than 60 percent of voters came to the polls. At the same time, almost 90 percent voted for Dubrovsky, and the representative of PSZ and "ER" Sychev won with a score of 67 percent against seven for the current head.

Is it possible?

Quite. Local elites, starting with the leadership of the Instrument-Making Plant, were opposed to Svetlana Olkhovskaya, believing that she was inefficiently managing the city's economy and did not take into account a number of opportunities that the city had, it fell into disrepair, began to "sag". Even the ex-mayor of the city of Lubenets spoke out against her, who at one time himself nominated Olkhovskaya.

But, on the other hand, even considering that these are, in general, local showdowns, it should be noted that this became possible due to the mistakes of the regional authorities. It was they who at first put pressure on Olkhovskaya for a long time, insisting that direct elections of the mayor be eliminated in the city. But people want to choose their own leader! Olkhovskaya led the "protest movement" for direct elections and lost them resoundingly.

As a result, we have a paradox: United Russia scored a 100% result (21 out of 21 candidates, a new mayor) exactly where, contrary to the wishes of the party, open, competitive and fair elections were held! And where everyone was "crushed" - the result was scraped up somehow.

The question arises: why is this party so afraid that wherever possible it pushes through the abolition of direct elections? Experience shows that United Russia is capable of confidently and cleanly winning under normal competition. Agree, the difference in turnout is still indicative: an honest 60 percent in Trekhgorny against a stretched 35 percent in Chelyabinsk. And 90 of those 60 percent are for Dubrovsky. I am sure that competitive and fair elections of the “party of power” today are only beneficial: they make its position truly legitimate, people know that they themselves, personally cast their votes. It just requires real and thorough political work in every city, and there is apparently no readiness for this yet. So far, the habit of throwing foolish leaflets at the people, and heads of territories with compromising materials and criminal cases is triumphant. This is unpromising in the new conditions.

And what is the party in power afraid of, in your opinion?

Many of our "political leaders" have long and habitually been most afraid of the fact that Moscow will not approve of some result of their work or will not notice their zeal. And therefore they prefer to act “for sure”, as in the old days they acted, “showing results”. They don't know how to do otherwise.

This is connected, of course, not with substantive political issues, but with the need for specific personalities to “show themselves”, to show that we are a testing ground, an experimental city, and we, the local politicians, are the coolest. And then they should be noticed and rewarded with a carrot or a career. Everything is simple.

LSG reform - from the same series?

- I think yes. Here, in our regional media, deputies, in particular, gentlemen Bodrov and Mitelman, speak in unison (apparently at the suggestion of regional political curators), who assure us that everything is just fine with the reform of local self-government. True, they get confused in the testimony, not really knowing how many powers will be given to the districts, or which ones, or actually the powers that already exist at this level. And no one knows exactly how the districts will be financed when amendments to the Budget and Tax Codes and so on are adopted. They cannot answer a simple question: what did these reforms result in? However, there is no answer to this. That is why, as far as I know, after the liquidation of the Ministry of Regional Development and the “Chelyabinsk experience”, issues with agglomerations and LSG at the federal level are closed. Everything will be transferred to the regional level: "you need - you do it." That is, there will be no funding, and the "initiators of the reform" will make problems for themselves.

Indeed, when Semyon Arkadyevich Mitelman speaks about “power that has come close to the people” ... You know, looking at the Kurchatovsky district of Chelyabinsk, where the Mitelmans have been close to the people for more than ten years already (both in the City Duma, deputy-son, and in the Legislative Assembly of the region, deputy -father, and there are many assistants in the territories, and excellent relations with the district administration), a simple question arises: what has prevented you from successfully solving the problems of the residents of your constituencies so far? What, we definitely need 25 more deputies (for the most part, the same own assistants or business partners)? Well, let's elect in each house of a deputy that this power was very close ... This is just a profanation of political work - the question is not how many deputies we will separate, but what these deputies will be able to do. Otherwise, the closer this inefficient and corrupt government gets to the people, the faster they will reach it at one fine moment...

"Sandakov knows no more than he should"

And what about the Head of Chelyabinsk and the city manager of the regional center? After all, in fact, it was the only intrigue of the entire political season. For some things - at least for the fact that announcements of events with the participation of Sergei Davydov are distributed through the media through the press service of the governor - the conclusion suggests itself that the city manager, it seems, remains the same.

I'm not so sure about this, I have completely different information. As far as I understand, the situation with the heads of Chelyabinsk is kept as secret as possible, and only a few people know the exact alignment of both the mayors and the future Government of the region - including Governor Boris Dubrovsky, the head of his administration, Ivan Senichev, and those with whom they are talking about this negotiation.

Even the "political" vice-governor Nikolai Sandakov?

Everyone knows what he is supposed to know. Nikolai Dmitrievich was reappointed to his post, he has his own "field" of work and sphere of authority - elections, work with the media, relations with political parties, public organizations, etc. I think that for Boris Dubrovsky it was a convenient personnel move. Perhaps because he himself does not like to do what is called or is now considered "politics". At the same time, realizing that he is still engaged in real politics himself. It’s just that real, real politics for him is talking with Viktor Filippovich [Rashnikov], with Alexander Mikhailovich [Aristov], and with a couple of other leading “siloviki”. This is where politics is, where agreements are made and decisions are made. The rest is a matter of technology, and these technologies are under the jurisdiction of Sandakov, who has shown himself to be a fairly competent operator of this market in its current state. Everything related to elections, the media or political parties there - Dubrovsky categorically does not want to get involved in this, apparently considering this a matter not very decent for a good leader of the region. This is not a royal business, the head of the region should not touch this, get dirty with it, give any obligations to people who are not comparable with him.

As for who should become the heads of Chelyabinsk, this is a very serious topic for Dubrovsky. I think that until recently there was a choice in the range between radical decisions - from the fact that Mosharov and Davydov remain together at least for a certain period (after all, you can always change the city manager, if the head of the region and deputies wish), before the replacement of both heads, with a representative of the Magnitogorsk team as a city manager (Senichev or Teftelev), and with Baryshev as the head of Chelyabinsk.

Now, according to my information, the issue is resolved. Davydov leaves, and a representative of the “Magnitogorsk team” takes his place - Ivan Senichev has the best chances. But the fact that it will not be from Chelyabinsk is absolutely certain. He will be “balanced” by Chelyabinsk Mosharov - in the end, the elected (well, anyway) the head of the city is he, so politeness is observed. And the city manager is a hired specialist, even from London, if he is effective. But he will not arrive from London, he will be "on his own board."

Chelyabinsk, whatever one may say, is a key city for any governor, the capital of the region, the focus of electoral and other resources. Ahead is a series of serious election campaigns - elections to the Legislative Assembly, to the State Duma, and there it is not far from the presidential ones. Moreover, I have already heard from more than one source that the next mayor of Chelyabinsk will again be popularly elected. And the “man of the governor”, ​​who has increased his political weight and popularity, should go to the polls, and not a representative of the team of the ex-governor Yurevich, who did not show himself in anything special here. Apart from a whole series of high-profile scandals, of course.

Why is Davydov bad? He seems to suit the financial and industrial groups, he is able to negotiate, he is reorganized to the right topics instantly, executive ...

- Yes, it suits many people. How would any person who has been in this place for many years and managed to get to know everyone and agree with everyone would arrange. But, as far as I understand, the minimization of his chances of continuing his current work is based, among other things, on a sober assessment of the election results in Chelyabinsk.

On the one hand, Davydov was never Dubrovsky's favorite, on the other hand, he did not cause outright allergies. But now, after the elections (and, I think, Dubrovsky has more, let's say, verified data than those discussed in the media), it turned out that, in general, there are no decisive arguments in favor of Davydov's reappointment. He does not control the electoral and political situation to such an extent that this would be the main argument for his preservation, he is not the leader of the Chelyabinsk people, they just got used to him. Get used to something else - new, impressive and charming. Get used to it quickly.

At the same time, we all well remember the numerous political and other flaws of Sergei Viktorovich. If you recall the history of his reign, what immediately comes to mind, what is it remembered for? Transfers of bus stations, plans for cutting down pine forest, ugly sawing of trees on the streets, the “road revolution”, construction at the Emerald quarry, a barrier on Tatyanicheva Street, and so on. He will be remembered for these things.

But to say that under Davydov Chelyabinsk made some kind of qualitative leap forward, changed outwardly, or that the quality of life of Chelyabinsk residents and their habitat has grown so much that the townspeople are downright in love with their mayor (which happens in some places) - this hardly.

Leave Chelyabinsk for years to come in these hands? Dubrovsky does not have a single argument for such a decision. And now they definitely won’t ask from Moscow for Davydov.

“And which of the“ barons ”of Chelyabinsk were cheated?”

One of the central themes of real urban policy was to be the relationship between the new leadership of the region and the Chelyabinsk "district barons" - conditional Baryshev, Ovchinnikov, Rylsky, Vidgof, and so on. Many even thought that this would become a new point of some kind of confrontation ...

There is hysteria in the media about this, and a big one. But it rather resembles not the most clever invitation to bargaining, rather than an announcement of decisions that have not yet taken place. It's just that some people are invited to the auction, and the auctions are conducted in other places, and their results ... Let's see, in a word.

Boris Vidgof, as far as I understand, everything will be more than good. Problems there were announced when, in November last year, the head of the administration of the Traktorozavodsky district, Gorbunov, brought to a meeting with the participation of Vice-Governor Sandakov and the chairman of the regional executive committee of United Russia Motovilov, a list of potential candidates for deputies of the City Duma from the "ER" district, approved by the local Board of Directors (most of them became deputies on September 14). The "political leaders" had other surnames - the activists of the "Young Guard", in particular. And references to the authority of Governor Yurevich are the main argument. Then there were more. All this information - including how the head of the Traktorozavodsky district Gorbunov was squeezed out of his post - it is in everyone's memory, people saw and heard everything. And how they put pressure on Mayor Davydov to remove Gorbunov, including.

And, by the way - putting Vidgof out of the equation - which of the, as you call them, "district barons" were cheated? Rather, on the contrary! Baryshev, Ovchinnikov, Rylskikh - everyone will be in the City Duma, as before, and together with their supporters. And the fitness trainer (as they say) Vitaly Pavlovich Rylskikh will become the head of the district. Or the same Baryshev: what will he lose if he becomes the head of the urban planning commission - the most “delicious” of what is in the City Duma?

Look, by the way, in which district Konstantin Natsievskiy, a candidate for governor from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, was elected to the district council? According to the Soviet And he will go to the City Duma as a member of the “district team”. And the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which is, let's say, in partnership with some authoritative business communities, will not lose anything at the regional level (Natsievskiy as a deputy of the ZSO will be replaced by one of the party members), and at the level of the City Duma it will gain an experienced person. And one more thing - Natsievskiy has long been cooperating as an assistant with Chelyabinsk State Duma deputy Vadim Kumin, deputy chairman of the commission on financial markets of the State Duma. It's not a joke. These are the real influence groups. Those who remember at least something about these names from the mid-90s will understand me. Not to see these serious processes (I do not mark them now as positive or negative - this is a reality) and engage in all sorts of nonsense.

"District barons" become a political force. (I'm not saying that this is bad - as a rule, these people have earned the right to respect and influence). They will soon be called differently, because they will become spokesmen for the interests of real communities. And it will be a new political reality. Society is just beginning to look different. Those who do not notice this will lose.

Hammer and microscope

Meanwhile, literally in the very first days, Boris Dubrovsky reappointed a significant part of the future Government of the region and announced a return to the “single-headed” system of executive power, when the Governor personally heads the cabinet of ministers of the region…

A significant part of this work is still ahead. But I would pay attention to this. A significant part of the ministers - education, health, culture, including finance - was reappointed "wholesale". This, I think, is largely due to the priorities in the work that Boris Dubrovsky has chosen for himself.

The sphere of politics and political technologies - they are given to Sandakov, also because these things are not so important and interesting for the governor. There is another vice-governor for the conditional “social program” - “his own” Yevgeny Redin, from whom Irina Gekht was effectively and beautifully removed to the Federation Council - on the whole professional, smart and experienced, but who, due to the fact that she was engaged in the same topics, only caused conflicts. And in the Federation Council it will be in its place. There was no place in the new design for Ivan Feklin either - but simply due to the fact that Sergey Komyakov is already “in the industry”.

But as for the ministries of the economic "profile" - there will be changes. Principled and slow. In many ways, precisely because the head of the region considers this area to be key for himself and for the region. Not unreasonable, given what is happening in the country. That is why he will deal with all this in many respects personally, and above all, he will rebuild the structure of powers that has developed today, and which seems to him ineffective. Personalities will also change.

First of all, this is the Ministry of Economic Development, where Elena Murzina will leave her post by 99.99 percent. The Ministry of Construction, Infrastructure and Roads will definitely be divided, and the current minister will not remain. And, by the way, one of the options for Sergei Davydov is considered to be the transition to one of the new structures. For example, road construction. After all, he has become adept at this over the years of city management (smiles).

The Ministry of Industry will be transformed. If only because the Ministry of Industry is there only in name - the structure deals mainly with property issues, issuing licenses for deposits, and so on. And there clearly requires a clearer understanding of what it should do in general. As well as the Ministry of Radiation and Environmental Safety, which does not understand what, like landfills, but has more than a hundred officials on its staff.

In general, you need to understand that the Government is, first of all, an instrument that is selected based on the goals of the work that you are doing. If nails are hammered, then it should be a hammer, if bacteria are examined, then a microscope, and not vice versa, and so on.

And in the case of the Cabinet of Ministers, if you want to understand exactly how it will be transformed, then you need to clearly understand what tasks Boris Dubrovsky sets for himself, and whether he has a concept for solving them.

There is definitely a concept - his "STRATEGY-2020".

- This "strategy" is rather a kind of PR document, which is hardly worth considering seriously by professional people. I know that instructions have already been given to rewrite it, both to local and nonresident experts. If only because it is hardly possible now to set the task of doubling the GRP in the light of recent events in the politics and economy of Russia. These are rather pre-election things, and nothing more. And first you need to decide on the structure that will be tailored to solve real problems (even if they are not declared publicly, which is bad in itself), and then on people.

Concern about the strategy, which Boris Dubrovsky expressed from the very beginning, is like a director who does not have a work plan: like death. Therefore, he wants to understand, understand, decide.

Therefore, a certain block of ministers and key vice-governors have been reappointed immediately, and the fuss with the "economic" structures of the government will continue for several more months. Although the "incidents of Petridi" are not excluded.

What do you have in mind? And what does Ivan Petridi have to do with it?

Will explain. On the one hand, the post of adviser is somewhat free - you can listen to him, you can not listen. But on the other hand, the appointment to, in general, a public and high post associated with expert work, a person, let's say, ambiguous from a reputational point of view.

I have nothing against Ivan Petridi personally. But the unfolding public scandal with the situation around the deceived equity holders in the Prostory microdistrict and the Green Park company, where Petridi was director before being appointed as an adviser, does not add reputation to either the adviser or the governor himself.

Whether Boris Dubrovsky understands this or not, such incidents are a political thing, they are signs, signals. And this should not be repeated. Because who Petridi is at any moment can be forgotten in a month or two, but the fact that the very first scandal under Dubrovsky was connected with deceived equity holders and formally the closest member of his team will be remembered.

Municipalities are another headache. And it's not just about constantly arising criminal cases, as in Chebarkul, Korkino or Kyshtym (as far as I know, a case has already been opened against Shebolaeva).

Take the situation in Chebarkul. There, in fact, now there is no de facto power at all. The disgraced head of the city of Orlov in Thailand is resting (according to the governor's media), his first deputy Safonov is being "knitted" in criminal cases. And at the same moment, the special representative of the governor, Alexander Raevsky, was recalled from the city, who, it would seem, was sent there to restore order. What, everything is already so good in the city, everything is adjusted and controlled, what can be recalled?

Interaction with municipalities is a thing about which the previous head of the region, Mikhail Yurevich, broke his teeth in some way. Take, for example, the eternally "rebellious" Miass, or Zlatoust, or the "closed cities."

Not without it. And at the same time, this is a key issue, especially in the context of interbudgetary policy, when the region is forced to subsidize cities and districts, and the regional authorities simply do not have the authority to control the “enraged” head.

Relations with the heads must be built in any case. And build it right. Yes, of course, you can go by the method of pressure or, as a last resort, initiating criminal cases, since, alas, many give a reason. But what does the government itself look like, its authority in the eyes of the inhabitants? Especially if some kind of posts in social networks become the reason for certain actions (at least, this is how it looks).

And all this is going well, and not with the first governor - but what is the effect? In Ozersk, this, I remember, did not give any result in the end - the local deputies still decided for themselves which Head of the city they would choose. Without looking back at individual representatives of the regional authorities and their "Wishlist".

The fact that in Chebarkul, Korkino or Kyshtym residents will spit at their mayor will not increase either his efficiency or the authority of the regional authorities.

There really is a tool – it is elections. And if the mayor of the city is incompetent, then in the next elections, as practice shows, people are able to change this themselves. Entrust part of that work to political parties, the opposition, let them criticize the heads, let them take people to rallies, prepare public opinion. It will be ok!

And such a method is politics, not political technologies (which have been too much carried away lately, and which are completely unproductive). Strange ratings or something else dubious in news agencies citing an "anonymous source in the government" - after all, this is not really politics. She has yet to return to our region (smiles).

There was a lot of noise in the local media yesterday affairs, initiated by the investigative department of the Soviet district of Chelyabinsk of the TFR against A. Nikitin's company "Stroysvyazural 1" due to allegedly unpaid taxes: such media hype is usually supported by large commercial showdown; Nikitin himself sees here the interests of well-known businessmen-deputies of the Legislative Assembly from "ER" Yu.

We discussed this topic with Artur Nikitin for quite a long time yesterday, and this is what emerges, if very briefly. Karlikanov's structures owe Nikitin's structures 490 million rubles (and another 170 million to the tax service and 170 million to the budget of Chelyabinsk), many trials took place and Nikitin arrested almost all of Karlikanov's property; having made a deal to sell the Karlikanov business tower on Kirovka to K. Strukov, the entrepreneurs transferred the ownership of this object to the Gibraltar offshore, leaving the region without tax revenues. However, for some reason these sins are hidden from the vigilant gaze of the tax authorities and investigators of the Sovetsky district of Chelyabinsk. The conflict with Nikitin is very serious in its consequences for the United Russia deputy, and he saw a chance to get away from claims for hundreds of millions of rubles by bankrupting his opponent's company through tax claims.

This is where the St. Petersburg firm Stremberg, the tax office and the UK appear on the scene. Sovietsky district. The fact is that A. Nikitin’s Stroysvyazural built in 2012 in St. Petersburg, together with Stremberg, the largest water park in Europe (170 thousand square meters) and the Piterland entertainment center (money and the project were Nikitin, the land - the owner Stremberg by A. Kozhin). However, the partners soon parted - the ownership of the center was fixed 50 to 50, but Kozhin did not pay Nikitin a single ruble, renting out his share all these years and regularly earning multimillion-dollar profits on this. All these years there were courts - Nikitin wins, having already sued Stremberg as a whole for about 4 billion rubles; now he is very close to getting not half of Piterland, but the whole complex.

For Kozhin, like for Karlikanov, the only chance for salvation lies in taking Nikitin out of the game by bankrupting Stroysvyazural and seizing control of this company. They agreed on this, and K. Strukov, Karlikanov's partner, met with Kozhin.

As a result, a “case” appeared (immediately “leaked” in the media), which is based on the claim of the tax authorities that Stroysvyazural allegedly did not pay taxes on the sale of part of the debt sued from Stremberg, which amounted to 1 billion 200 million rubles. However, the truth is that Nikitin’s company did not receive any 1 billion 200 million from Stremberg: it was officially recognized that it was not possible to collect this debt (to the great regret of Nikitin’s creditor), since the debtor company has assets worth 1. 6 billion rubles with a debt of 9 billion- besides, they are pledged to the offshore company of the owners of Stremberg. Therefore, an independent assessment determined the real value of this debt at 11 million rubles, and Nikitin was able to sell it for 25 million - from which all taxes were paid.

That is no 1 billion 200 million, from which, according to the investigators of the Soviet district, taxes were not paid, Nikitin's company simply never had.
Even the investigator, according to the businessman, was quite surprised by the strange fact underlying the "accusation". It should be noted that such “cases”, becoming public and known to the federal authorities of law enforcement agencies, are not strongly encouraged there today: all interested parties are well aware of this.

Everything briefly described here is quite complex business matters (Stroysvyazural and Stremberg have 8,000 (!) court hearings behind them, there are all documentary evidence), but they are based, as usual, on a tough commercial conflict due to large of money. The main characters of this story are public people, deputies of the Legislative Assembly of the region from United Russia Karlikanov and Strukov, while Karlikanov owed, in every possible way evading the fulfillment of his multimillion-dollar obligations, to everyone who could only - from the city of Chelyabinsk to the federal Tax Service - and this is also well known to everyone.

Our state structures are often very sluggish in protecting the interests of society where they are opposed by seasoned businessmen who can find a common language with officials; however, in the person of Arthur Nikitin, Karlikanov and Strukov found a serious opponent: hence the intensity of the struggle and the size of the stakes. So this story can end very interestingly, but in any case, it promises to be very resonant.

What should be taken into account when evaluating the political crisis in the Chelyabinsk region that erupted after the FAS decision to initiate conspiracy cases in relation to Governor Dubrovsky, as well as a number of local officials and businessmen?

This situation is irreversible character, it is impossible to “wait out” or stop it, since the complex federal investigation with regard to the governor and his “team”, all the key control and law enforcement agencies are now leading in different directions: the prosecutor’s office, the police, the FSB, the FAS. The decision of the antimonopoly department of August 30 only brought this large-scale investigation into the public political arena.

Recall that the tough anti-corruption order of the Deputy Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation Ponomarev to the regional prosecutor Lopin (on facts not directly related to the claims of the FAS) is dated August 18, serious violations of the law by the governor's team before; OFAS “winning” competitions for the Dubrovsky family have long been, and Deputy Minister Bakhaev, who is responsible for preparing the SCO summit, was detained by the FSB a month and a half ago.

The official materials of the FAS provide a formal basis for making procedural decisions by other law enforcement agencies, and also prepare public opinion for fundamental personnel decisions. The investigation of the antimonopoly agency cannot be terminated and will end with a concrete decision (recall that the head of the FAS Artemyev is included in the narrow circle of the leadership of the state bodies of the country and would never have made a decision on a personal investigation against the head of a large region without having indisputable arguments in his hands and without agreeing to it at the political level). And there the "upper limit" of punishment is a criminal article with a term of up to 15 years. And even if there are no “criminals” with respect to the governor, then personal participation in the conspiracy is more than sufficient reason for resignation (and such a scenario should be seen by Dubrovsky as extremely optimistic - according to our data, he is ready to leave even tomorrow, but hopes to bargain some money from Moscow "honorary conditions").

In the second half of September, a new wave of high-profile investigations in the field of road repairs is expected in the region, as well as, most likely, the work of the regional MHIF (it is well known that the construction and repair of healthcare facilities in the region are also almost exclusively carried out by commercial structures associated with the governor). At the same time, control and law enforcement agencies will come to grips with the activities of the administration of Chelyabinsk, headed by Dubrovsky's closest associate Teftelev (so his today's saying about a possible departure, "changers" and "changers" is not at all accidental: that's just not him will decide on the next head of the city).
The regional ONF, which has long criticized the socio-economic policy of the Dubrovsky government, also plans to intensify measures for public control of spending budget funds in the region - some of the materials are already in the prosecutor's office.

Understanding how the work of the cumbersome and clumsy state machine works, it would be extremely naive to believe that this entire massive campaign was started (at the time of deciding on the next Chelyabinsk governor) “accidentally” or aimed only at “shaking a finger” at Dubrovsky.

Obviously, we are talking about a change in the ruling team in the region, which has compromised itself with its incapacity, as well as regularly and openly violating anti-corruption laws - and even directly getting into the pockets of the population. This question is long overdue, we wrote about it here more than once. The fact that the “window” for changing the Chelyabinsk governor opens after the completion of the September regional elections in the country was also emphasized by the Petersburg Politics Foundation, which named the region among the regions where replacements of heads are most likely; we believed that the most convenient moment for this is the period around the New Year.

However, it seems that the whole "puzzle" has developed before. It is possible that the adoption of the decision on Dubrovsky accelerated the realization by the center of the fact that the work on preparing the SCO summit in the region has failed and only an urgent and high-quality renewal of the regional government, the arrival of people who can be trusted with public money.

It must be understood that key personnel decisions do not have to be momentary at all. But they cannot be shelved either, since there is no longer a de facto legitimate government in the region. Dubrovsky and his deputies have not previously been an authority either for business, or even for local officials and deputies (the situation in Miass and other cities of the region clearly confirms this). Now, with the governor, who is under a serious federal investigation, no one will talk at all about anything in detail.

The situation regarding the imminent replacement of the governor is made obvious by the complete lack of trust rating of Dubrovsky and his team from Chelyabinsk residents (according to our data, federal agencies determine this rating at a level of no more than 5%).

It is pointless to guess about the personalities of Dubrovsky's replacement, but it is known that the "line" of such people (both those directly related to the Urals and those working outside the region) was formed long ago. Each of them is able to quickly accept the region and bring it out of the deep crisis in which the Chelyabinsk region is now.

It is symbolic that on September 26, the verdict will be passed on the former vice-governor N. Sandakov, who was appointed by M. Yurevich and worked as B. Dubrovsky's deputy for more than a year: now the investigators have new "heroes" from this administration. The investigation into the activities of the Chelyabinsk governors, which has been going on here for a long timenon - stop , should finally serve as a solid lesson for the next contenders for this chair.

P . S . Moscow will certainly appreciate the ridiculous comment of B. Dubrovsky, who was indignant at the fact that the federal department issued a ruling on his participation in an agreement, in advance with him without discussing it in detail. And in general, with all this he is “distracted from the holidays”: the governor predicted that he would be able to understand something in this decision “in three years”.

Here, of course, only M.E. Saltykov-Shchedrin will help with information: "There is no bitterness of stupidity, like stupidity". It is common knowledge that it takes Dubrovsky a disproportionately long time to understand simple things (for example: it is not good when the majority of large budget contracts are won by the firms of the governor's family members and their partners); however, there is very little doubt that in three years he will continue to comprehend what happened in a completely different place.

This cannot be followed question of political confidence the head of the region, accused of such a serious violation of the law. In addition, it should be taken into account that at the disposal of the FAS (and not only this department) there are other stories about competitions for many hundreds of budget millions, which were constantly won by companies associated with Governor Dubrovsky or directly owned by members of his family.
In Chelyabinsk, the next governor-businessman has long been contemptuously talked about on every corner, and therefore any decisions of the federal government will be perceived here, as they say, "with full understanding."

The scandal surrounding the persecution by local bureaucratic clans of the director of the famous Chelyabinsk Physics and Mathematics Lyceum N31, Alexander Popov, has reached the federal and international levels, in fact, turning into a political one. Whether the participants wanted it or not. Sincerely not wanting such a development of events, I refrained from speaking on this topic for quite a long time.

On Friday, September 13, immediately after Popov was charged with attempted bribery and fraud http://news.mail.ru/inregions/ural/74/incident/14752964/?frommail=1 , organizers and participants visited the lyceum, accompanied by journalists ( Maxim Karpov and his colleagues) of the international taekwondo tournament, which ends today in Chelyabinsk, among them were Popov's eminent students. For the second week in the city, a film crew of the NTV channel has been working, unusually carefully preparing a detailed story about the “teacher's case” for the program “Profession - Reporter”. The federal media have addressed this topic more than once or twice and continue to track it.
http://www.aif.ru/society/article/66777 , http://rusrep.ru/article/2013/09/11/oldboy
http://svpressa.ru/society/article/73054/ , http://shtab31.livejournal.com/36938.html
etc.

Today, dozens of very famous people have been involved in the "Popov case" - from the writers Prilepin http://svpressa.ru/blogs/article/72677/, Shargunov and Bykov (by the way, they will soon be in Chelyabinsk) to producer Kandelaki and governor Yurevich http://chelyabinsk.ru/text/newsline/690682.html (vice-governor Sandakov spoke with NTV journalists, just in case). The high-profile "case" is being closely watched in Moscow.

No other topic is heard now at the federal level in connection with the Chelyabinsk region as clearly as this one. It is clear why it has acquired such a public outcry, but the time has come to formulate these reasons more clearly.

The country now froze for a brief moment at the point of bifurcation, waiting for a signal. Where to go? Down, into the traditional and senseless "belt-tightening" and "tightening the screws" - or up, pulling up to the existing piece models of the post-industrial "knowledge economy" along with the civilized world? The Popov Lyceum, one of the best in the country, is a symbol of the second way. The verdict on the director on a “corruption case” sucked from the finger will be a sign that the authorities have suicidally chosen the first one.

In the Chelyabinsk region, there is no more striking achievement of the “industry of knowledge” than the physics and mathematics lyceum created by Popov (Southern State University was not even included in the top 100 universities of the Russian Federation, and the 31st lyceum is the third among the best). Young investigators, left by police chiefs to shake up the papers of the lyceum, families of students and Popov’s employees in search of the director’s self-interest, were surprised to find that this “corrupt official” lives very modestly with his wife in a two-room apartment on the ground floor of a five-story panel building, and he did not withdraw money from the lyceum , and brought them there - personally earned.

One can argue a lot about the legal nuances of this case (although from the very the fact of a bribe the prosecution has already refused, it is also confirmed that Popov agreed to take the money specifically for the needs of the school). But, in the bottom line, it looks exactly like this: all the forces of the state are thrown here not to encourage, but to destroy the first and, possibly, the last real achievements of the modern “knowledge economy” in the stagnating old industrial Chelyabinsk region; the fight against corruption is profaned at the same time in the most shameful and destructive way for society.

They argue that it is necessary to severely and revealingly punish the director’s desire to accept from a persistent ( suspiciously insistent: this was understood in hindsight) the applicant for 25 thousand rubles, which were needed to finance the trip of the accompanying student to the Olympiad in Vladivostok. At the same time, hundreds of millions of budget rubles are being plundered with impunity in front of everyone’s eyes through insane spending on endless and stupid repairs of the same sections of roads, numerous tenders for the supply of expensive and unnecessary equipment, the purchase and operation of luxury cars and utensils for officials, new luxurious office space , "repair" and "modernization" of hospitals (turning into good-quality painting of the walls), multi-billion budget investments in the private business of selected merchants, and the like.

But the main and perhaps the only corrupt official in the region who deserves to be tried is the director of the school, Popov, who did not steal a single penny of state money!

The persecution of the mathematician Popov is a sign that power in the face of bureaucratic clans is moving in the region to open suppression of not even political opponents and commercial competitors. She calls her enemy a completely non-politicized humanitarian community (those very qualified “doctors and teachers”, whose apolitical nature has served her as a support for a long time), blaming it professional independence and unforgiving ability to moral assessments. Too many people in Chelyabinsk and outside of it are actively against this rough pressure - there are more and more of them http://shtab31.livejournal.com/ , http://slo-vo.ru/obshchestvo/delo-popova , http://www .kp.ru/daily/26125/3017491/.

On the sidelines, they are now talking a lot about versions and backgrounds: that the police did not forgive Popov for his emotional reaction to the requirement to report the nationality of his students http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/52788.html, that the interests of the ascended are visible in history the power of the teacher I. Iogolevich and his influential brother, the general of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as the long-standing friendship of the ex-vice-governor A. Ufimtsev with the fizruk Puzyrev, who received a symbolic slap in the face from Popov (this shameful “case” is also in court http://bkjournal.org/ poshchechina-ot-poetov/); about the fact that there was a banal provocation of a bribe in order to vacate the chair of the director of the lyceum, and so on. These and other versions, each of which is worth nothing separately, together denote the critical mass of the reaction, which is quite capable of giving rise to this monstrous “case” in terms of absurdity and social harm http://chelyabinsk.ru/text/person/689410.html?first

Now one thing is clear: anyone who sits in the chair of the director of the 31st Lyceum after thus displaced Popov, will be doomed for a very long time to prove to everyone that he is not a scoundrel. And it won't be easy for him to do so.

The participants in the conflict have nowhere to retreat - the shoulder straps of some and the human, professional reputation of others are at stake. The trial, which will apparently begin at the end of autumn and will take place during the hot political season, promises to become the most public and significant event for the country. At the same time, he will either completely bury the reputation of the Chelyabinsk region, or force him to speak about it with respect. For the first time in a long time - without mentioning "harsh metallurgists", "red shorts", environmental disasters, corrupt officials and "flying spaghetti monsters".

The fact that in the plans of the authorities of the Chelyabinsk region (apparently, he is well acquainted with them) there is no early election of a new "full-fledged" mayor of Chelyabinsk. It is impossible to wait with the competition for the election of the head until spring - the mayor, and not the acting one, should lead the city in the difficult winter period, the plenipotentiary said at a meeting with the chairmen of the parliaments of the Ural regions. Chairman of the Legislative Assembly V. Myakush immediately (at least in words) "took it under the hood".

The fact that the dissatisfaction of the federal government with the Chelyabinsk political games was made public at such a high level is very significant. Let's try to figure out what this "message" of the plenipotentiary to the Chelyabinsk governor means.

It is no coincidence that the administration of B. Dubrovsky is not in a hurry with the procedure for electing a new mayor of the capital of the region and would like to keep V. Elistratov in this post as an “acting” head of the city for as long as possible (that is, approximately until May, which is allowed by the city charter and local legislation). . That's why.

Firstly, the “Magnitogorsk team” simply does not have a “passing” candidate who meets the relevant requirements, who would be approved by Moscow and for whom the Chelyabinsk deputies would vote. The "Miass scenario" is a nightmare dream of Dubrovsky and Golitsyn, and its repetition in Chelyabinsk is now more than possible. This would be the final cross on the political career of the governor and all his entourage - and not only a political career, and not only a Chelyabinsk one.

The city's elites are waiting for the governor's resignation and no matter what his protégé will nominate: there is now a vast field for bargaining and strong local candidates. But whoever is elected as the new head, this person (even if it becomes the same Yelistratov), ​​having established himself in his post, having received the support of the city clans and Moscow, will no longer be an obedient executor of Dubrovsky's will while the latter remains governor. He will certainly begin to focus on much more reliable forces - local elites, the federal government and the population: the position of the mayor will be many times stronger than the governor's. In this case, Dubrovsky loses the city completely, and with it - the last, most illusory hopes of getting a chance to participate in the elections.

In addition, as it turned out for certain, the regional authorities simply do not have real levers of influence on authoritative mayors. The law enforcement agencies are not subordinate to them (now the situation is rather the opposite), and no one will play with budget transfers for political purposes: the regional finance minister will rather resign than refuse planned transfers to this or that city for heat, housing and communal services or sowing just because that the governor wants to "punish" the mayor. The head of the region can stomp his foot and swear in the media as much as he likes, but in fact there is no “vertical of power” in the regions. And what are the political methods of leadership, Dubrovsky has long forgotten, and hardly ever knew.

His administration is now living on the principle of "stay day and night hold out": the resignation of an extremely unpopular governor, whom Moscow simply can not make a bet in the elections of 2019 (especially in the light of the course and results of the current election campaigns in other regions), with 99% probability it is possible any minute, the critical dates are here: November - early December 2018, January 2019 and, the deadline is April 2019 (six months before the elections).

Therefore, it is beneficial for Dubrovsky, regardless of how and when his “personal issue” is resolved, to have all this time at the head of Chelyabinsk not a full-fledged and independent mayor, but an “acting” “suspended” in an indefinite status, dependent on him and Teftelev, who will help them complete many important personal projects here (it is no coincidence that Teftelev will deal with property issues in the government of the region, exactly the same he did in the city of Yelistratov - this is a very effective tandem in its own way). That is, it is in the interests of the governor to delay the election of the mayor to the maximum: if everything works out optimally for him, exactly until spring, before he leaves.

But this is categorically unacceptable for the federal government, whose position was voiced yesterday by Tsukanov. With a weak governor who does not enjoy the confidence of the population and the support of the elites, who is on the verge of resignation (the plenipotentiary representative knows this better than ours), it is important for the center to have at least one political “foothold” in the region on the eve of an important election campaign (and even without that, the times ahead are very difficult, and the socio-political situation in Chelyabinsk is very difficult).

Moscow clearly does not intend to lose another "millionaire" due to Dubrovsky's incapacity and for the sake of his personal plans. Therefore, the federal authorities need here a full-fledged, influential and responsible head of the city (and not at all "Dubrovsky's man") as soon as possible. What such people No- the myth of the governor's political technologists, it is enough to name offhand the names of Ovchinnikov, Mosharov, Kotova, Vyatkin or Baryshev, there are several other completely real candidates well known to Moscow; however, this is a separate issue.

That is why Plenipotentiary Tsukanov was sharp and frank yesterday. The situation around the election of a new mayor of Chelyabinsk is becoming politically key for the region, and we will be closely monitoring it here. Today, one thing is clear: this agenda has become yet another - perhaps the decisive and last "conflict zone" between the federal center and the Dubrovsky administration. For the time being, the head of the region no longer has good moves in this complex game.

https://www.site/2017-06-09/politolog_aleksandr_podoprigora_o_tom_kogda_i_pochemu_smenitsya_vlast_v_chelyabinskoy_oblasti

“It’s just that other people will come. It's inevitable because it's logical."

Political scientist Alexander Podoprigora - about when and why power will change in the Chelyabinsk region

Yaroslav Naumkov

Political scientist and publicist, senior researcher at the Scientific and Educational Center of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Chelyabinsk State University Alexander Podoprigora does not consider himself a "network" person. And indeed, apart from the diary in LiveJournal, which he started at the end of the 2000s and which he still does not quit, he does not have accounts in any of the social networks. He is very selective in the consumption of products of the media agenda, having made sure from his own experience that a TV forgotten in the corner will not make a modern person less informed. But it will give you the opportunity to put your head in order and perceive the world around you more soberly.

- Alexander Vasilyevich, your rather critical position is known to the “late” Sumin, and to Mikhail Yurevich, who replaced him for less than four years, and to today's governor Boris Dubrovsky. Sometimes we hear that the Chelyabinsk region is fatally unlucky with its leaders. Are you ready to accept this?

“There is no fatality here, no 'curse'. It's just that political miscalculations were made at the time. If Governor Sumin and his team had attended to political succession in time and carried out the appropriate work, then the “Yurevich incident” simply would not have taken place. As well as many other things.

"There will be organizational conclusions." Dubrovsky commented on the failure of his economic bloc

Because when Yurevich had to be urgently removed in 2014, it turned out that the region has the only system-forming structure that can “catch up” the situation and take responsibility for ensuring that everything here does not simply collapse overnight. This is MMK.

And of course, there were subjective factors, how without them? But Dubrovsky is not a politician and not a governor in essence, in terms of biography, training, mentality. It was a situational decision, he was given a chance. And there are quite countable results of his work - in all areas. All this will lead to the arrival of a new person, who will be picked up by Moscow in a much calmer environment.

- Now you, in connection with your forecast, will be accused of "working for the oligarchs" ...

- The "oligarchs" have nothing against Dubrovsky, and he himself did not "come out of the people" here at all ... And I'm not saying that the governor will leave any day. But, I repeat, although the hopes were high, but now everything has become more or less clear with him. There are people who can replace him, and the change of power is a normal process.

- Would you like to say that in three years, in addition to MMK, other "backbone structures" appeared in the region?

- The general situation is not much, but it has changed. Politics in general is a very lively, changeable thing, it’s not true that somewhere there is an “insider”, which you only need to cunningly find out and everything will become clear - how and what will happen. But what was a real scenario only yesterday may change dramatically today under the influence of a variety of factors that no one thought to take into account yesterday. Which, perhaps, simply did not exist yesterday. And no one, at any level, believe me, knows for sure “how it will be” in six months.

Accordingly, the role of the company in the region is changing. Has anyone heard, for example, that Mechel or Fortum are actively involved in regional politics? They are not interested, they do not need it, it would even be harmful. The same will happen here. Viktor Rashnikov, as the owner of a particular plant, is genetically closely related to the leadership of the region (and he was much more connected with Khristenko and Sumin than today with Dubrovsky) is one thing. The division of the federal holding in Magnitogorsk is completely different. Until the process is completed, Dubrovsky is needed here. But it is close to completion, I think.

- And who in this case?

- Let's not guess. I can only say that today the region is unattractive for serious groups of influence, so there will be no particular struggle for the governor's seat: there is no significant money here, development resources are limited, and it is difficult to make a career here. However, there are such interests. These are the groups that control the surviving remnants of the Chelyabinsk engineering industry (primarily Rostec), as well as mining corporations. The centers of these interest groups are Moscow and Yekaterinburg. This is where you should start from. And, I think, this is a reason for optimism - it is always better to "fasten" to the federal locomotives than to peripheral leaders. They have a good understanding of the situation, serious resources and an interest in long-term prospects for work in the region, and not in these fairy tales about the Higher Council of Europe and the SCO.

- Will the Chelyabinsk region "fasten" to Yekaterinburg? Evgeny Roizman once called Kasli casting a Yekaterinburg brand, which caused righteous anger among the Chelyabinsk public. Do you understand how many people now have you provoked indignation with your words?

“Region” is a phantom. People live in cities and villages, not in regions. There was a time when there was no Chelyabinsk region, but people have always lived in Chelyabinsk, Zlatoust, Troitsk and did not feel deprived of anything. You can be proud of your ancient or, conversely, modern city, but not the administrative borders on the map that Stalin drew or Khrushchev redrawn.

I wrote about this in my book - new cultural and economic regions have long been formed in the country (by the way, this fact was first confirmed at the beginning of the 2000s by a research group working on behalf of Sergei Kiriyenko - at that time still the presidential envoy to the Volga Federal District), which actually exist over the borders of the "Soviet" regions. They unite territories with a common history, culture, mentality of people, demography, economic structure, and so on.

One can argue about different regions of the Urals, but the fact that such a fairly homogeneous region is the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan regions is obvious. And the leadership of Yekaterinburg is not in doubt here. I often happen to be in Yekaterinburg for work and not only. The main feeling from the comparison with Chelyabinsk is that the dynamics and scale of the capital city are very strongly felt there. In everything, from new construction to cultural, intellectual life. For example, at the end of June, the Yeltsin Center will host a large scientific symposium on the problem of the cyclical nature of Russia's development, and I was invited to give a presentation there. It is simply impossible for me to imagine a discussion of this kind of subject in Chelyabinsk.

But this is understandable - the current Chelyabinsk was born as an agglomeration of workers' settlements, and the industry of the last century is dying. Therefore, the inclusion of a more powerful modern center into the orbit is inevitable and generally positive. Already 10 years ago I saw maps of Yekaterinburg's development strategy, where, for example, Ozersk is included in the 100-kilometer zone of "Greater Yekaterinburg". And Ufaley is there, and Snezhinsk ...

- Then you should welcome the construction of the Chelyabinsk - Yekaterinburg high-speed line, and you all criticize it ...

“I am not at all against the highway as such. If some powerful private investor comes here tomorrow and says: I will build a high-speed railway for you, I know how to make money on it - the flag in your hands. Although, of course, one must understand that any improvement in transport connectivity between these cities will mean in today's conditions an acceleration of the outflow of people and money to Yekaterinburg and, accordingly, the degradation of Chelyabinsk. But there is no such investor in nature, which is significant. And when we are offered to build and then operate high-speed railways one way or another at the expense of budgets, pension and insurance funds (as if this money has no more urgent use) - sorry. Everything is extremely simple here: you have very little money and you are offered to buy a terribly expensive thing that you do not need. Buy?

- Hardly. So we still have to wait for the enlargement of the regions within the boundaries of the Ural Federal District? Or the Chelyabinsk governor from Yekaterinburg?

- There is no need to change administrative boundaries now - we live in a global world where they are of very little importance: completely different forces, tools and arguments are now working. And the governor does not necessarily have to have a certain “registration”, gender and age. However, let's not guess - after all, it's more interesting, isn't it?

I'll clarify the question already asked. In political circles, the name of Sergei Nosov, the current head of Nizhny Tagil, but a native of the Chelyabinsk region, is being actively discussed ...

“It's just an indicator. It's not about a particular name.

For them, "politics" is a redistribution of illegal parking and transportation, lobbying for personal business. And the "Magnitogorsk experiment" did not solve this problem. Meanwhile, the challenges are growing. Therefore, other people will simply come, better educated, with socio-political experience, a good outlook. It is inevitable simply because it is logical.

- Now there is a lot of talk about the development of a new strategy for the region until 2035. You seem to be rather skeptical about this too? Why?

Dubrovsky selected 45 people for the regional strategic committee

- Strategies are needed, but there is a fundamental point here. All our "strategies" are not viable, because they are composed by officials. Even if individual scientists are involved in this case “on a voluntary basis”, it is the local authorities who set all the main parameters and goals, determine the format and content of these papers. For them, this is a kind of "report" to the authorities.

But the main part of such work is an adequate analysis and assessment of the basic situation: what do we actually have, what are the real resources, trends, chances and risks? Without this, nothing can be predicted, all these plans will be another "PR dummy".

But officials are not interested in a sober assessment - they perceive it as that someone "puts a deuce" on their work, they will read it in Moscow and they will be fired. Therefore, the only correct "strategy", in their firm opinion, is that everything is fine, and it will be even better. But this is profanity, serious experts will not subscribe to this.

- And what do you suggest?

- The analysis of the situation and the development of strategies should be undertaken by the society itself. We see an example of this at the federal level - of course, the government is involved in this, but the main stake is placed on the expert groups of Alexei Kudrin and the Stolypin Club, and business finances the work.

Therefore, we will get the next fantasies about the development in our country someday, in 2035, of “innovative technologies of the twenty-fifth mode”, which it is not clear why they will come here, and this Talmud will go after its predecessors to the shelf. But what is much worse is that real opportunities, and the region definitely has them, can be missed.

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