On the socio-economic situation of the Republic of Dagestan. Phantom of growth what is hidden behind the shock growth rates of the Dagestan industry The state of the economy of Dagestan

Another year has ended. It must be admitted that it was not easy not only for the country as a whole, but also for our republic. In 2017, the imposition of sanctions against Russia continued, however, our country also responded with “mirror” measures. But unlike previous years, we have already adapted to the sanctions and the economic crisis, which, admittedly, has subsided. Despite this, in 2017, as in previous years, the “austerity regime” was relevant. In these difficult conditions, we managed to show growth in many positions. So, let's sum up the preliminary results of the past year (the exact figures will be known a little later).

Big Picture

In general, the socio-economic situation in Dagestan by the end of the year showed a positive trend in the pace of the main economic indicators. The growth rate of industrial production amounted to 20.6%, agricultural and construction products - 4.7% each, retail trade turnover - 3%, the volume of paid services to the population - 2.7%, real disposable money income - 3.3%.

As a result, the index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity increased by 6.4% with an increase of 6.1% in January-November 2016.

As part of the implementation of the subprogram "Socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for 2016-2025" of the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of the North Caucasian Federal District" for the period up to 2025 "in the current year, investment projects for the construction of greenhouse complexes of LLC" AgroMir" and LLC "Yugagroholding", as well as a plant for the production of gypsum and gypsum-containing building materials in the industrial zone with. Kafir-Kumukh. It is assumed that after the projects reach their planned capacities, more than 400 jobs will be created, and annual tax payments to the budgets of all levels in the amount of 180 million rubles will be secured.

Priority projects for the development of Dagestan were implemented, including in order to increase the tax potential of the consolidated budget of the region. Tax and non-tax revenues for 11 months amounted to 29 billion rubles, the established tasks for the collection of tax and non-tax revenues to the consolidated budget of the republic were fulfilled by 101.3%.

In addition, information on 63.6 thousand land plots and 67.1 thousand capital construction objects was transferred to AIS Nalog-3, information was updated and ownership rights for 53.6 thousand land plots and 33.9 thousand buildings were registered. capital construction projects. 4249 entities engaged in activities without registration were identified, 2923 entities were put on tax records. As of December 20, 53.8 thousand people were identified as being engaged in activities without appropriate registration, of which 44.9 thousand people had employment contracts or were registered (100.3% of the planned values).

Industry

The situation in the industry was characterized by an increase in production volumes as a whole by 20.6%, with an increase in the pace of mining by 0.5%, manufacturing by 25.1% and an observed decline in the volume of water supply, sanitation, organizing the collection and disposal of waste, activities for elimination of pollution by 0.7% and provision of electricity, gas and steam, air conditioning by 11.6%.

In terms of the type of activity “processing industries”, the high level of growth in the index of industrial production (125.1%) over 11 months compared to the corresponding period in 2016 is the result of outstripping growth in industrial production in such structure-forming types of economic activity as the production of coke and petroleum products - by 6 .3 times (CJSC "Caspiy 1"); production of finished metal products, except for machinery and equipment - by 1.8 times (OJSC "Dagdiesel"); production of computers, electronic and optical products - 1.5 times (JSC Azimut); production of other vehicles and equipment - 1.4 times (JSC Concern KEMZ); production of beverages - 1.3 times. At the same time, there is a decrease in production in the production of electrical equipment - by 33.8% (OJSC "Kizlyar Electric Apparatus Plant"), the production of machinery and equipment not included in other groups - by 32.5% (FL NPC Conversion "Plant of Separators" ) and production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 30.9% (OJSC Branch of PJSC RusHydro - Dagestan branch).

In 2017, production facilities were put into operation at seven industrial enterprises of Dagestan: floor tiles and ceramic granite at Marabi LLC; modern lift-assembly production of various carrying capacity at JSC "Kizlyar Electric Apparatus Plant"; section of vacuum-film forming at JSC “Plant im. Gadzhiev"; modernization of the machine-assembly shop at Dagdizel Plant JSC; the second machining workshop, thermal, welding and assembly sections at the Aircraft Mechanical Plant of JSC Concern KEMZ in Kaspiysk; resumption of the production of fiberglass and fiberglass fabrics of OJSC Makhachkala Fiberglass Plant; galvanic production and launch of a molar section at OJSC Yuzhno-Sukhokumsk Electromechanical Plant.

According to preliminary data, the volume of production under the defense order for 2017 increased by 1.5 times and is estimated at 9 billion rubles. The volume of production of import-substituting industrial products, mainly for defense purposes, in 2017 was estimated at 3.7 billion rubles and increased by 1.4 times compared to 2016.

In general, the growth rate of industrial production in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (101.6%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7%). Among the regions of the North Caucasian District, Dagestan is in fifth place in terms of this indicator per capita (16 thousand rubles).

Agriculture

The volume of agricultural production by all categories of commodity producers amounted to 110.4 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% (in January-November 2016 - by 3.8%). Growth in agricultural production is provided, first of all, by increasing the gross harvest of crop production.

Thus, in Dagestan, the harvesting of the main agricultural crops has been completed. The gross harvest of vegetables amounted to about 1.5 million tons (105.2% compared to the same period in 2016), potatoes - 395 thousand tons (99.7%), fruits - 208.5 thousand tons (159.8%), rice - 85 thousand tons (111.2%), grapes - 168.8 thousand tons (113.6%). The laying of orchards amounted to almost 1.5 thousand hectares, including intensive-type gardens - 673.5 hectares, while the planned indicator for the current year is 1100 hectares and 200 hectares, respectively. New orchards were planted on an area of ​​1233.4 ha, which was 82.2% of the program target for 2017 (1500 ha).

Growth in production for 11 months is also observed in terms of the main indicators of livestock products. The production of livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) for the specified period in farms of all categories amounted to 208.4 thousand tons (105.6% compared to the corresponding period in 2016), milk - 767.7 thousand tons (102.6% ), eggs - 215.2 million pieces (103%).

As part of the implementation of the Action Plan for import substitution in Dagestan, work is underway to commission, reconstruct and modernize a number of industries. So, in s. Novokuli, Novolaksky district (Novostroy), the first stage of the greenhouse complex with a total area of ​​1.3 hectares was put into operation. In addition, Yugagroholding LLC launched the first stage of a greenhouse complex on an area of ​​5.5 hectares, which will further increase the production of vegetables in greenhouses during the off-season period by 2.5 thousand tons. To provide the greenhouse complex with backup water supply, LLC Yugagroholding built a backup reservoir with a capacity of 14 thousand cubic meters. The launch of these facilities will increase the production of protected ground vegetables by the end of 2017 to 18 thousand tons, against 14 thousand tons in 2016.

In order to develop the infrastructure and logistics of the food market in Dagestan, Yugagroholding LLC completed the construction of a fruit storage with a total capacity of 4,000 tons and a vegetable storage with a capacity of 6,000 tons in July 2017.

Based on the production of feed pellets from alfalfa green mass, Kizlyar Uritsky Meat Processing Plant LLC has created a raw material base for increasing the production of sausages, producing new types of raw smoked sausages, canned meat, and meat and bone meal. The enterprise is working to expand export opportunities, delivering products (lamb meat) to Iran.

In addition, work is underway in the republic on the technical modernization of agricultural production. Thus, agricultural producers of the republic purchased 51 units of equipment, including 13 tractors and one grain harvester for a total of 50 million rubles.

The growth rate of agriculture in January-October in the republic was above the average for the whole Russian Federation (104.7% against 102.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% against 101.2%). Among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, the republic is in fourth place in terms of this indicator per capita (33 thousand rubles), the best indicator is in the Stavropol Territory (65.5 thousand rubles).

Investments in fixed assets

The volume of investments in fixed capital in Dagestan from all sources of financing for three quarters amounted to 110.5 billion rubles, or 104.6% compared to the same period in 2016. The volume of work performed by the type of activity "construction" for 11 months amounted to 99.7 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2016.

Due to all sources of financing in Dagestan in January-November, according to preliminary data, more than 1 million 374 thousand square meters were put into operation. meters of the total area of ​​housing, which is higher than the same period last year by 0.1%. Commissioning of housing by individual developers for the past period of the current year amounted to 928.8 thousand square meters. meters of the total area of ​​housing, or 67.6% of the total housing commissioned.

The growth rate in terms of the volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction" in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (104.7% against 97.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% against 102.6 %). Among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, the republic is in first place in terms of this indicator per capita (24 thousand rubles).

As of December 1, the actual financing of the Republican Investment Program amounted to over 3 billion 165 million rubles, including more than 2 billion 92 million rubles from the federal budget and 1 billion 72 million rubles from the republican budget. The volume of work performed on the objects of the Program for the specified period amounted to about 2 billion 859 million rubles, or 90.3% of the volume of actually financed funds.

In 2017, within the framework of the Program (including funding from previous years), 9 general education facilities for 4586 student places were put into operation (in Buynaksky, Kaitagsky, Tarumovsky, Tlyaratinsky, Khasavyurtovsky, Khiva districts and in the cities of Makhachkala, Kaspiysk, Khasavyurt), 3 children garden for 290 places (in Buynaksky and resettlement Novolaksky districts), FOK for 2497.5 sq. m (in Kizlyar), 1 healthcare facility for 150 beds (Republican Perinatal Center in Makhachkala) preparation of the reservoir bed of the Gotsatlinskaya HPP.

In addition, the construction of 6 educational facilities for 2748 student places has been completed: in the city of Makhachkala (2 schools), in Khasavyurt (2 schools), Kumtorkalinsky, Magaramkent districts; 2 hospitals with a total capacity of 245 beds and 100 visits per shift (in the Botlikh and Karabudakhkent districts), a pumping station (for water supply in the city of Khasavyurt and villages in the Khasavyurt district), sewage treatment facilities for 17 thousand cubic meters per day (in the city of Izberbash), engineering infrastructure facilities of the Uytash investment site. These facilities will be put into operation at the beginning of 2018, taking into account the registration of property rights and licensing of current activities.

In 2018, over 3 billion 263 million rubles are provided for the implementation of the Program, including 1 billion 611 million rubles from the federal budget and 1 billion 652 million rubles from the republican budget.

Social sphere

The social sphere in the republic is characterized by an increase in real disposable money income of the population by 3.3%. The average monthly salary of employees in January-October amounted to a little more than 21 thousand 273 rubles, which is 5.1% more than the same period in 2016. Real wages for the past period of the current year is 101.6%, which is much better than the same period last year (96.6%). At the same time, the average monthly wage is still below the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (by 1.8 times) and the North Caucasian Federal District (by 1.1 times).

The situation on the labor market of the republic remained stable. At the end of November, 24.8 thousand people were registered as unemployed in state institutions of the employment service (92.2% compared to January-November 2016).

Budget: execution and benchmarks

The consolidated budget of Dagestan in 2017, as of December 29, was executed by 100% in terms of tax and non-tax revenues, almost 32 billion rubles were secured.

As explained in the Ministry of Economic Development of the region, the achievement of positive results in the collection of tax and non-tax revenues was facilitated by the activities of the priority project for the development of the Republic of Dagestan "Whitening" the economy. Work was carried out to expand the tax base for property taxes, to increase revenues from the main types of taxes.

As a result of the work carried out in 2017, data on 63.6 thousand land plots and 67.1 thousand capital construction projects were updated and transferred to the database of tax authorities. In addition, 14 thousand 704 objects of entrepreneurship were examined, 4362 persons engaged in entrepreneurial activities without registration were identified, of which 2923 entities were tax registered.

As a result of the work carried out, a significant increase in revenues was achieved compared to the previous year from income tax (by 10.2% or 383 million rubles), special tax regimes (by 6.6% or 80.5 million rubles), property taxes (by 8.4%, or 388.4 million rubles).

In 2017, due to the allocation of additional financial assistance to the republic from the reserve fund of the President of the Russian Federation in the amount of 3.2 billion rubles, it was possible to fully fulfill the social obligations provided for in the 2017 budget, including the payment of wages to public sector employees, benefits and other.

The 2018 budget is also socially oriented. At the same time, funds are provided to support the real sector of the economy. First of all, the budget takes into account the unconditional implementation of the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, including in terms of ensuring the indicative wages of public sector employees subject to the decrees. Sufficiently taken into account are the costs of drug provision, utility and social payments, meals in preschool educational institutions and schools, healthcare institutions, etc. In addition, the budget provides for meeting the need for wages, accruals for wages, taking into account: an increase in the minimum wage to 9,489 rubles; increase by 4 percent of the wage fund for other categories of workers not subject to the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of state civil and municipal employees; indexation of the scholarship fund for students of educational institutions of vocational education from September 1, 2018 by 4 percent. Utility bills are provided with an indexation of 4 percent.

As for the real sector of the economy, the budget provides funds in the amount of 100 million rubles for the leasing of agricultural machinery, 50 million rubles for the development of the canning industry, 100 million rubles for payment to grape producers for its delivery to alcohol-producing enterprises for processing at the rate of 1 ruble per 1 kg. In addition, for the first time, funds were allocated for the creation of the Industrial Development Fund in the amount of 100 million rubles.

Development of municipalities

In 2017, an assessment was made of the implementation of the Agreements concluded between the Government of the Republic of Dagestan and municipal districts and urban districts on the achievement of indicators (indicators) of accelerated socio-economic development for 2016, which made it possible to determine the contribution of each municipality to the socio-economic development of the republic. The ranking of municipal districts and urban districts was carried out based on the results of achieving the planned values ​​of indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development in 2016.

In order to continue this work, as well as to ensure the achievement of the values ​​\u200b\u200bof indicators (indicators) of the socio-economic development of the republic, established by the Decree of the Head of the region "On the accelerated socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan", Agreements were signed between the Government of Dagestan and the heads of municipal districts and urban districts on achieving indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development of municipal districts and urban districts for 2017-2019. During 2017, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements was carried out, with the preparation of relevant proposals.

In 2018, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements will continue, as well as an assessment of the implementation of the Agreements based on the results of 2017.

In 2017, a competitive selection of projects of local initiatives of municipalities was held in Dagestan, as a result of which subsidies were allocated - 29.3 million rubles - for the implementation of 15 projects. The projects include measures for water supply, construction of roads, repair of social facilities, and landscaping.

In 2018, work will continue to expand the number of municipalities participating in the competitive selection of projects of local initiatives.

In 2017, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the activities of local self-government bodies was also carried out, urban districts and municipal districts of the Republic of Dagestan were identified that achieved the best performance indicators. A Consolidated report on the results of monitoring the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts based on the results of 2016 has been prepared. Based on the results of the work carried out, the Decree of the Head of Dagestan awarded prizes and allocated grants from the republican budget to 15 municipalities: 3 urban districts and 12 municipal districts.

Placement in the state automated information system "Management" of the values ​​of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts for the reporting period, as well as planned values ​​for a three-year period, has been ensured.

In 2018, work on assessing the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts of Dagestan continued.

Conclusion

To ensure the growth of the main economic and social indicators last year in Dagestan, work was carried out to implement a number of measures aimed at economic growth and improving the welfare of the population. Anti-crisis measures, action plans to promote import substitution in the industry and agro-industrial complex of the republic were implemented. Achievement of target values ​​of indicators of social and economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation established by the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation was ensured.

In addition, in order to maximize the potential of Dagestan, action plans were implemented to implement a number of decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation.

In addition, as part of the decisions taken in 2016 at the federal level, work was carried out in the republic on the transition to project management, taking into account the new requirements for the implementation of strategic tasks, priority projects and programs. All executive authorities are focused on participating in the implementation of federal projects within the framework of 11 areas of strategic development of the Russian Federation. The Coordinating Group of the Council under the Head of Dagestan for Sustainable Development and Priority Projects approved the Passports of Priority Development Projects of the Republic of Dagestan. Of the 11 main directions of the strategic development of the Russian Federation, Dagestan takes part in six: safe and high-quality roads; small business and support for individual entrepreneurial initiatives; education; housing and communal services and urban environment; single-industry towns and the reform of control and supervisory activities.

Dynamics of the volume of gross regional product by regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, billion rubles

The production of GRP for the period from 2005 to 2011 had a steady trend towards active growth: GRP (in comparable prices) in 2011 compared to 2009 increased by 26%, and compared to 2005 - 3.6 times. However, during the period 2007-2010. there was a downward trend in the real GRP of the Republic of Dagestan, the largest drop in which occurred in 2010 (the GRP physical volume index was 103.6%), but since 2011, the index has been growing, exceeding the average for the federal district and the Russian Federation in in general.

GRP volume index, %

In terms of per capita, the volume of gross regional product produced in Dagestan increased by 3.3 times compared to 2005 and amounted to 111.9 thousand rubles. in 2011, which corresponds to the 3rd place among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. In the Russian Federation, Dagestan ranks 74th in terms of the production of GRP per capita. In terms of per capita GRP, the republic is comparable to the Ivanovo region, North Ossetia, Tyva and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Gross regional product per capita by regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, thousand rubles

In the sectoral structure of the formation of the gross value added of the Republic of Dagestan, relative to similar indicators for the federal district and Russia as a whole, it is possible to distinguish distinctive features that make it possible to characterize the economy of the region as agro-industrial:

The share of agriculture, fishery and fish farming in the GRP of the region is 15.1% (NCFD - 14.6%, RF - 4.5%).

The share of industrial production in GRP is 6.5% (NCFD - 14%, RF - 32.6%).

The share in the GRP of the construction industry is 19.4% (NCFD - 12.3, RF - 6.9%).

The share of wholesale, retail trade and personal services in GRP is 27% (NCFD - 22, RF - 19.4%).

The share of transport and communications in the GRP is 9% (NCFD - 8.7%, RF - 10.5%).

The share of commercial financial services, real estate transactions, as well as services and tourism is 6.9% (NCFD - 7.3%, RF - 13%).

The share of non-market services in the GRP is 16.1% (NCFD - 21.1, RF - 13.1%).

Sectoral structure of gross value added in 2010, %

The largest contribution to the formation of the gross regional product of the Republic of Dagestan is made by "wholesale and retail trade, the provision of personal services to the population", the share of their value added in the economy increased by 1.1% over the year and in 2011 amounted to 27.3% of the total GRP (in 2005 - 19.8%). Growth was achieved mainly due to a 2.3-fold increase in the turnover of the "wholesale trade" type of activity. The turnover of retail trade and the provision of services to the population increased during the study period by 12.9% and 10.2%, respectively; real value added also increased by 10.1%. The contribution of the type of activity "wholesale and retail trade, provision of personal services to the population" in the GRP of the region is constantly growing, and compared to 2005, its share increased from 19.8% to 27.3%, in actual current prices, the growth was almost 5 times , from 17.9 billion rubles in 2005 to 89.3 billion rubles in 2011

Structure of the gross regional product by type of economic activity in 2011, %

The second most important for the economy of Dagestan are construction and the agricultural sector, providing 18.8% and 15.2%, respectively, in the formation of the gross regional product. Compared to 2010, the share of agriculture in the structure of GRP increased by 0.1%, while construction saw a slight drop of 0.6%. During the period 2005-2011. the influence of these sectors of the economy has also changed significantly, if in 2005 the construction sector formed 12.6% of GRP, then already in 2011 it was 18.8%; agriculture, on the contrary, reduced its influence from 23.6% in 2005 to 15.2% in 2011. At the same time, the real volume of value added created in the construction industry and agriculture in relation to 2010 increased by 0.3 % and by 2.4%, respectively. Compared to 2011 and 2005, the real value added decreased from 108.1% to 106.3% in agriculture and from 145.8% to 108.3% in construction.

Dynamics of physical volume indices of gross value added,%

Structure of the gross regional product by type of economic activity (in % of the total)

Dynamics of the use of gross domestic product, billion rubles

Discussing the execution of last year's budget on September 13, officials repeatedly emphasized: yes, the treasury covers only social expenses and actually ignores the real sector, but our industrial growth rates are still the highest in the country. In all sorts of interviews, the government flaunts the indicators of socio-economic development (SED) as its main achievements and even dedicated a documentary to them. But what is actually driving this growth?

The pace of industrial production is a special source of pride for the authorities. It's no joke, in 2013 the statistics showed an increase of 54% compared to the previous period, and at the end of last year - by 36%. In 2013, the galloping SER lifted the republican government from 53rd to 31st place in the rating of the effectiveness of state authorities of the subjects. Since 2012, the volume of industrial production in the Republic of Dagestan has increased by 2.2 times. All laurels are attributed to the "New Industrialization" - a priority project of the head of the republic. Successes come from the machine-building complex, reports the Ministry of Industry of the Republic of Dagestan. Last year, industrial growth was affected by a 2.5-fold jump in the production of machinery and equipment (OJSC Dagdizel), the production of vehicles and equipment - 1.8 times (OJSC Concern ''KEMZ''), production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 44.9% (Dagestan branch of JSC "RusHydro") and food production, including drinks and tobacco - by 5.7% (JSC "Kizlyaragrokompleks", JSC "Derbent Cognac Plant", JSC "Rychal-Su ").

In January-June 2017, the industry grew by another 40.3%, in seven months - by 44.7%, and in eight months - by 35.2% compared to the same period in 2016. The highest indicators are at OJSC Concern ‘‘KEMZ’’, OJSC ‘Plant ‘‘Dagdizel’’, OJSC «Zavod Gadzhiev», Production Association «Azimut», OJSC DNII «Volna».

For the first quarter of 2017, Dagestan ranked fourth in the ranking of regions in terms of the industrial growth index.

Let's compare it with tax revenues, the volume of sold/shipped products and GRP.

Furniture in assortment

Once every three years, the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Dagestan draws up a socio-economic development forecast in two versions - optimistic and basic - and adjusts it annually. According to domestic legislation, SER indicators are taken into account when drafting the republican budget and affect planned tax revenues (although, according to the source, there is no exact relationship between forecast and budget indicators).

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in its methodology for developing a SER forecast, recommends using two indicators to characterize the industrial (and generally production) result - output (includes sold goods and services, unsold finished products and work in progress) and the volume of shipped (sold) products of own production (equating them in this regard to the index of industrial production). The latest assessment does not fully correspond to production results, but in terms of dynamic characteristics, in general, it is quite close to them, the federal Ministry of Economy believes.

Therefore, it seems to us that this indicator characterizes the current situation.

Table. Dynamics of economic indicators of the development of the Republic of Dagestan

The volume of shipped products for the last year is estimated at 52.4 billion rubles, a decrease by almost 12 billion rubles compared to 2015 (the structure is shown in Table 1, the OKVED articles are presented, the share of which is more than 5%). The number of enterprises involved in manufacturing has decreased by 355 since 2013 and amounted to 682.

A large share in the volume of shipped products is occupied by the production of food products, including drinks and tobacco - 45% (31% of GRP). Until 2016, other production was in second place, where OKVED includes the production and restoration of furniture. There was a sharp jump in furniture in 2015, when its share rose from 7.5 to 35%. The production of vehicles and equipment has been trailing behind the furniture sector for almost all this time. Only in 2016 they managed to raise the bar from 7 to 13.2%. (The main share here is furnaces, as well as industrial and laboratory chambers.) There was also an increase in shipments of non-metallic mineral products: from 9 to 14.3%.

Unprofitable industry

The growth of industry by 2.2 times should have had a corresponding effect on tax revenues. We analyzed tax revenues to the consolidated budget, that is, taking into account the share credited to the federal budget.

Since 2012, they have grown by 10 billion rubles and amounted to 31.7 billion (as of January 1, 2017). Of these, 3.8 billion is corporate income tax, 12.1 billion - personal income tax, 5.2 billion - VAT, 3.5 - excises on excisable goods. For five years, income tax revenues have not changed much. 3.7 billion went to the budget in 2012, 3.8 in 2016. In 2015, it also fell to 2.4.

What types of economic activities supply the treasury with income tax?

The profit from the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water for the budget is 1.2 billion. All types of manufacturing industries give more than 900 million rubles, where the food industry is about 370 million, the production of leather and footwear is 1.3 million, the processing of petroleum products is 1.7 million. Moreover, it turns out that publishing generally gives the treasury more income (44 million) than oil refining (3 million). In this regard, transportation through pipelines brings a much greater profit to the republic - 234 million tons.

From mechanical engineering, the treasury received 13.7 million, which is about 6 million more than in 2012. Compared to the year before last, there is a decrease: then about 58 million were paid. other vehicles" from 11 to 428 million rubles.

Construction and trade with a share in GRP of 15 and 28% give a profit in terms of income tax - 240 and 501 million. In total, 1.9 billion came to the budget from the construction industry, and 2.6 billion from trade.

Other industries, despite the impressive volumes of shipment, on the contrary, lost weight: the income tax on their part decreased from 14.4 to 6.3 million rubles.

VAT gained a lot of weight: from 1.8 to 5.1 billion. The food industry gave 1.6 billion, mechanical engineering - 268.4 million (relative to 2012, it increased by 280 million, but lost 220 million since 2015), production electrical equipment - -42 million compared to 2012, the production of ships and other vehicles - +180 million.

The return on VAT from construction increased by 600 million and from trade by 381 million.

It is also not clear where the crazy industrial growth that we are told about is going if the share of industrial production is only 6% of GRP. It has remained virtually unchanged since 2010, no matter how galloping the statistics may be. According to data for 2015, mining accounted for 0.4% of GRP, manufacturing - 3.9%, gas and water production - 2%. These three pillars underpin the index of industrial growth. For comparison: 28% of GRP is trade, another 15% each for agriculture and construction.

At the same time, we must not forget that the volume of industrial production is highly dependent on the volume of state defense orders. The decrease in the growth index of manufacturing industries in 2012 was associated by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Dagestan with a decrease in the volume of the state defense order. In 2013, the state defense order placed at Dagestan enterprises increased one and a half times compared to last year, after which the government began to report on industrial successes. ]§[

On December 1, the Moscow House of Nationalities hosted IV Forum “Dagestan. View from Moscow”, organized by the Political Club “Dignity”. A teleconference between the Moscow and Makhachkala branches of the club brought together Dagestanis who are not indifferent to the fate of their native land. The forum was moderated by public figure Khadzhimurad Gadzhiev, who noted that the club brings together experts, public and political figures and everyone who wants to change life in Dagestan for the better.

Expert economist Khadzhi-Murad Abashilov presented the report "Assessment of the economic situation in the Republic of Dagestan", which "MK in Dagestan" publishes today. We will tell you more about the forum in the next issue.

Balancing with numbers or inflated indicators

My last year's report, devoted to assessing the socio-economic situation of the republic, was devoted to the indicators that were achieved or published in official sources. Doubts about their reliability, an indication of the complete dependence of figures on political will, and not on economic processes, then caused a violent negative reaction.

Bubbles are being inflated in many sectors of the economy, including agriculture. The number of postscripts on the number of livestock in animal husbandry and the overestimation of the amount of expenses to be reimbursed for crop production cannot even be calculated by the auditors. Management of industries is not about reaching new heights, but about balancing numbers and mastering budgets.

This mechanism cannot be repaired. It can only be broken by breaking all the vicious bonds within it. We can appreciate this on the example of the capital. The most complicated system of city management under the leadership of Said Amirov, tied to personal connections and a corruption mechanism, after his arrest, gave critical failures in all areas - life support systems, the financial and budgetary sphere, utilities, and the transport sector fell into collapse more than once.

We can only proceed from whether certain parts of the creaky state-administrative system of the republic will be changed or will they still build a new mechanism? And we again come to the conclusion that the economy is controlled by politics. 2017 was marked by a major political step that dramatically changed the disposition. We will not analyze public reports with unsubstantiated figures and look for further inconsistencies in them. Let's try to assess - what is the economy of Dagestan and in what direction should it move?

The state of the economy of Dagestan

Official statistics show that for January 1-October 2017, growth is observed in almost all areas. Let us give data on the turnover of organizations for 10 months of 2017, and on the balanced financial result - for the 3rd quarter of 2017.

Agriculture- 15.5% of the gross regional product. In terms of turnover of organizations, an increase of 118% is shown, in terms of financial results, excluding small businesses, an increase of 173%.

Mining- 0.4% of GRP with negative dynamics in its structure. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 108.5%, in terms of financial results, the dynamics is zero.

Manufacturing- 3.9% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 112.7%, in terms of financial results - an increase of 104.4%.

Energy- 2.0% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 104.8%, in terms of financial results - an increase of 102.1%.

Construction- 15.8% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 112.6%, in terms of financial results - an increase of 116.5%.

Transport and communications- 7.5% of GRP. On the turnover of organizations - no data, on the financial result - a decrease to 92.1%.

Sector of public administration- 6.4% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 116.6%, it makes no sense to evaluate this sector by financial results.

Trade- 28.5% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 103.5%, in terms of financial results - a decrease to 92.8%.

These figures mean that Dagestan is an agricultural, trade-oriented republic with little industrial production, mainly in the construction and energy sectors. According to the reporting indicators, the dynamics in 2017 averages 108% compared to the previous year, which indicates incredible success!

However, in the section “Financial performance of organizations” in the report of the Rosstat technical specifications for RD, it is indicated: “In January-August 2017, the balanced financial result (profit minus loss) of organizations (excluding small businesses, banks, insurance and budgetary organizations) in current prices amounted to 3,048.9 million rubles loss. For the same period of the previous year, the net result was 2,855.5 million rubles of loss.”

Organizations are massively at a loss. Small business entities (the key sector in the republic) are not even evaluated - they only aggravate the statistics. That is, statistics once again play with numbers, but the economy is not growing.

Reasons for the weakness of the economy of Dagestan

1. Investment climate developed over the past 4 years. Investment demand is spurred on by state investments and state guarantees to organizations close to the leadership of the republic, and is tuned not to long-term investment, but to receiving subsidies and benefits from the state, which is perfectly shown, for example, by agriculture. The entire increase in agricultural volumes is due to almost a multiple increase in subsidies for specific areas of activity - viticulture, animal husbandry, for which several areas of state subsidies operate simultaneously. Everything that concerns private investment without the participation of the state is dead.

2. Scarcity of own finances republics. The annual exaggeration of the topic of interbudgetary transfers leads to another tug-of-war between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the struggle for subsidies. 75% of the republican budget was drawn up at the expense of subventions, subsidies and, most importantly, subsidies. Approximately 23 billion of own revenues out of almost 100 billion of expenditures with really positive dynamics of increasing tax revenues and fees is a true indicator of a balanced budget.

In Dagestan, the market is represented by Sberbank and Rosselkhozbank, which operate according to well-established schemes. What the rest of the Dagestan banks are doing, we will find out when the Central Bank announces once that "this credit institution did not meet the capital requirements and carried out dubious unreasonable financial transactions."

3. Huge debt, artificially hung on key elements fuel and energy complex of the republic. The debts of gas and energy companies will wander from year to year in a frightening arithmetic progression with irresponsible figures of 35 billion rubles. as of 2017 already. An annual increase in debt of more than 10% requires political intervention by the leadership of the republic and a tough position on the settlement of debt obligations.

4. Lack of developed industrial production . Flagships of the republican economy, such as Azimuth, Aviaagregat, Elektrosignal, KEMZ and Dagdiesel, regularly subsidized by defense orders, are absolutely not visible on the Russian market. The absence of its own production base creates dependence on external manufacturers for the smallest nomenclatures of parts for agriculture, construction and trade.

5. High shadow component of the economy . This area can be assessed, although rather approximate. For example, according to the results of a whole range of inspections initiated by the city leadership together with the tax authorities, more than 3,000 entrepreneurs were identified who carried out their activities without registration. But few people work "in the black" - the whole business is mainly focused on "gray schemes". The tightening of administrative control and the constant increase in the rates of taxes, fees, and contributions encourage people to go "into the shadows", which is especially typical for small businesses.

6. Administrative and law enforcement press . This is the most difficult to assess indicator, which directly correlates with the first item and is inversely proportional to it. He is bound. The number and scope of inspections of various control bodies, the initiation of criminal cases on the slightest pretext with the qualification "fraud". An interesting fact is that in 2017 the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Dagestan simultaneously checked 5 (five!) Controlling organizations. An endless verification process destabilizes the work of any institution and levels the meaning of its activities.

Politics is a concentrated economy

According to the definition of Vladimir Lenin, the economy is determined by politics, political will. The new leadership of Dagestan has publicly announced a paradigm shift - not to "work a little for yourself", but to strictly follow the law, especially in terms of anti-corruption legislation. Rules and their observance are important for the economy. It is necessary to choose key areas and focus on them without being scattered.

1. Resolving the issue of gas and energy debts. The republic cannot enter the electricity production market, with investment sites for the extraction and sale of minerals with a reputation of bankruptcy. Negotiating with key creditors, fixing the obligations of the republic with real discounting, setting a strict repayment schedule for up to 5 years with a limit on payments not exceeding 1% of GRP per year.

2. Creation of a regional bank. This is precisely the political issue of solving the financial and economic problem, which lies in the sphere of supervision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and under the strict supervision of the Russian Ministry of Finance. Without operating extra-budgetary sources of financing, any steps taken by the regional authorities have little chance of being implemented. A regional bank cannot be created directly by the state authorities of the republic, therefore this form must be developed jointly with the leadership of the above-mentioned federal bodies. Or, under the strict guidance of the TC of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for RD, the remaining regional banks were consolidated in order to form such a commercial bank of regional significance.

3. Definition of agriculture as a locomotive sector of the economy. Solving problems associated with the collection, storage, sorting and transportation of crops, creating conditions for the year-round cycle of most sub-sectors. Abandon the form of state guarantees, as this creates unhealthy competition between large and small producers. It is in this area that the economic multiplier will work due to the expansion of the construction of a large number of related elements - warehouses, sorting centers, vegetable stores, mini-canning factories, and so on.

5. Refusal of direct financing and provision of state guarantees in an investment project not related to agriculture . Outrageous estimates and unrealistic prospects for each individual project in all cases turned out to be zilch. Within the framework of strict budgetary parameters, it is necessary to maintain a minimum of politeness in relation to industrial production, which in reality is far from the best multiplier, but it reacts very quickly to changes in the economy, which is immediately reflected in its indicators.

6. Sequestration of budget expenditures in terms of public administration expenditures . To carry out optimization of municipalities and districts of the republic in order to reduce the inefficient administrative apparatus. The expenditures of the budgets of settlements on salaries for managers sometimes amount to more than half of the entire budget, which breaks the whole point of the existence of these budgets. The same applies to the budgets of the districts, which must be combined for specific quantitative parameters, taking into account, of course, the national-historical aspect. This will provide significant savings in budgetary funds, released for social or investment spending.

7. The development of the capital of the republic into an agglomeration, the prototype of a modern metropolis. The unification of Makhachkala and Kaspiysk with the addition of territory for industrial and residential construction will create an investment potential for the breakthrough development of the capital as a powerful educational, industrial and financial center.

Makhachkala needs to be transformed - in a new transport paradigm, territorial planning and zoning, expanding the budgetary potential in order to form a key base for the development of the republic, its central financial, personnel and organizational component. The economies of scale in this case will play a huge role, although it is too early to talk about specific numbers. The question is in the strategic solution of the problem, which cannot be removed by simple cost optimization or the struggle to increase income.

Here we again face the question of the quality of the state apparatus and the level of officials. Any economic decision in the republic will have an effect only if there is political will and an efficient, tuned team. We are waiting and getting ready!