Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate. History of fluctuations in the Pearson coefficient over the past year

The ruble ended last week strengthening its position against the world's leading currencies. Following the results of Friday's trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange consolidated around the level of 65.60 rubles/$, which is 50 kopecks. below the previous week's close. The weakening of the American currency occurs against the background of its depreciation in the world, as well as the preparation of Russian companies to pay taxes to the budget.

Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank Viktor Veselov:
At the beginning of the week there are no macro statistics for the dollar that could significantly affect it. Therefore, in anticipation of tax payments for mineral extraction tax, VAT, and excise taxes, which will take place on October 25, the ruble will strengthen against the dollar. Also, the currencies of the EM sector may receive weak support in anticipation of the meetings of the Central banks of Indonesia and Turkey on October 23 and 25, where the heads of regulators may touch upon the topic of the future prospects of national economies and rates due to the increase in the US Federal Reserve rate. However, investors are not expecting rate changes by listed banks in the EM sector. On Thursday-Friday, statistics on durable goods and preliminary quarterly US GDP will be released, which is expected to decline, which plays against the dollar. Also on Friday, the Bank of Russia will hold a meeting, following which we do not expect an increase in the interest rate, but we expect its growth in the fourth quarter as a result of increased inflation due to the impact of the VAT increase from 2019.

Konstantin Kochergin, head of financial markets operations department at Vostochny Bank:
On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the key rate will become known and a press conference by Mario Draghi will take place. The probability of a rate change is 0% due to the slowdown in economic growth in the EU and the upcoming Brexit. The main problem is the border control regime between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is leaving the community within the United Kingdom. British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed extending the “transition period.” On Friday the market will be waiting for US GDP data. There will also be a regular meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate. Given the slight strengthening of the ruble and the weakening of anti-Russian rhetoric, the likelihood of a change in the key rate at the current meeting is minimal. In our opinion, the key rate will remain at the same level.

Anatoly Saltykov, head of the strategy development department of SMP Bank:
The coming week will continue the tax period and the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, who are supporting the ruble for the second week. At the same time, the dollar is unstable in relation to world currencies - a rather tense information background has formed in the United States on the eve of the midterm elections to Congress, which will ensure some volatility for the pair. Statistics on oil reserves in the United States, together with the consequences of a diplomatic scandal between the United States and Saudi Arabia, are holding back the growth of quotations. As a result, the ruble is deprived of raw material support. An important event of the week will be the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on October 26, at which the decision on the key rate is considered. We do not expect any movements in the rate, however, the regulator’s rhetoric following the meeting will be important for the market. We expect the pair's exchange rate this week to be in the range of 64.7–66.2 rubles/$.

Maxim Timoshenko, CFA, director of the financial markets operations department at Russian Standard Bank:
The tax period this coming week will continue to support the ruble. However, the ruble is weighed down by a decrease in risk appetite on the part of investors, as the tensions between China and the United States continue to be the focus of their attention. The ruble is also negatively affected by the news background from the Eurozone, where the European Commission reported that Italy's draft budget for 2019 violates EU rules. It is worth noting the harsher rhetoric of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the growing concern about a possible deterioration in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The beginning of a decline in the price of oil, which has already dropped below $80 per barrel, is also not in favor of the ruble. At the end of the week a decision is expected on the key rate, which will most likely be adjusted.

Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank:
The ruble remains relatively stable, reacting weakly to the corrective dynamics of oil prices. The main factor supporting the Russian currency this week should be the tax period. The high level of the ruble price of a barrel of oil significantly increases the volume of mineral extraction tax payments, which should affect the activity of exporters before paying this tax before October 25. In addition to the conversion of foreign currency earnings, the ruble can also be supported by the potential formation of a deficit of ruble liquidity in the banking system as a result of tax payments. The influx of money through the budget channel in October was significantly less than the previous month, which may lead to additional demand for rubles until the end of October.

Mikhail Poddubsky, chief analyst of Promsvyazbank:
Since mid-September, the dollar exchange rate has been in the range of 65–67 rubles/$ most of the time, which at the moment looks like a temporary equilibrium range. On the one hand, the Russian ruble is still greatly undervalued, based on the current level of oil prices and the size of the current account surplus. On the other hand, the external environment for the currencies of developing countries remains not the most favorable, and sanctions risks remain. We continue to expect the range to remain at 65–67 rubles/$.

Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier:
The ruble's movement will likely follow the trend common for developing country currencies, and they will remain under pressure. Over the next week, the Russian currency will receive support from the tax period. A possible escalation of tensions in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia could give oil prices an impetus to return to $82 with a corresponding increase in support for the national currency. We expect the ruble exchange rate to be in the range of 64.9–66.8 rubles/$.

In the last days of June, the dollar exchange rate in Russia underwent a slight correction after reaching a monthly minimum. The official exchange rate of the Central Bank as of June 26 was 62.52 rubles, and this is a record for the last 10 months - the last time the ruble strengthened to this level was in August 2018. By the end of the week, the dollar rose slightly again - to 63.08 rubles. The dollar exchange rate forecast for the new week suggests that most experts expect a slight weakening of the Russian currency in the days from July 1 to July 5, 2019.

What will happen to the dollar in the first days of July?

The correction in the last days of the outgoing month was quite expected. After the end of the tax period, the demand for Russian currency from exporters decreased. This happens every month, exceptions are very rare.

Taking into account the completion of tax payments, there are almost no internal factors left to support the ruble. The market managed to win back the likely reduction in the key rate at the end of July, which was hinted at by the head of the Central Bank Nabiullina. As for the oil market, it is still waiting for news from OPEC+ and is not ready to make a qualitative breakthrough. Raw material prices have stabilized around $65 per barrel.

Of course, the main international event that all market participants have been following in recent days is the G20 summit.

The dynamics of the ruble in the first week of July will largely depend on how the results of the meetings of the leaders of the world's largest economies are perceived. First of all, everyone was watching the leaders of the United States and China. The economic war between the two countries is having a global impact on world markets. All currencies of developing countries, including the Russian ruble, depend on the relationship between these two countries.

Experts agree that the ruble now has no particular reason for further strengthening. But there are also no reasons for its sharp weakening. The dollar exchange rate in the new week may be volatile for at least two reasons. The first is that Russian companies begin to pay dividends, and many of their recipients will go to the stock exchange to convert the income received into foreign currency, which will play against the ruble. The second reason is the publication by the Central Bank of the volume of foreign exchange interventions for the next month on Wednesday, July 3. So far, no surprises are expected from the regulator. However, if the volume of currency purchases within the framework of the fiscal rule turns out to be different from expectations, this may affect the current exchange rate.

Dollar exchange rate in the week from July 1 to July 5, 2019 – expert forecasts

The publication traditionally interviewed analysts from large Russian banks about their views on the fate of the ruble and dollar in the new week. The consensus forecast of the experts surveyed is that the dollar exchange rate at the end of the week will be at 63.42 rubles. At the same time, the possible exchange rate corridor that analysts expect is from 62.5 to 64 rubles and higher.

The Moscow agency APECON also provides a daily forecast for the dollar exchange rate for the week from July 1 to July 5, 2019. The expectations of the agency's experts are extremely close to the above forecast. They are shown in the table below.

The Russian currency will begin the final week of January at ₽56.2750/USD And ₽69.7925/euro. The ruble quotes relative to its Western “competitors” changed towards cheaper prices by 34.7 kopecks and 42.0 kopecks, respectively. The reason for the negative dynamics is a reaction to the decline in oil prices to $70.15 from $70.42 under the influence of Bakers Hughes data on the number of drilling rigs operating in the United States (+12 platforms per week, up to 759 units). The cost of a barrel of Brent mixture at 08:11 Moscow time is $70.03.

The news about the introduction of new US sanctions against domestic officials and functionaries of the LDPR (expectations about a ban on working with Russian public debt have not yet come true, but may “materialize” tomorrow) had a negative impact on the monetary unit of the Russian Federation. The increased activity of the domestic Ministry of Finance in terms of purchasing euros/dollars for replenishment also has a negative effect on the quotes of ruble pairs. The source of support, in turn, is the tax payment period, a new portion of transfers within which is planned for today, and the statement of the head of the American Ministry of Finance about the advisability of weakening the “green” tax in order to increase the competitiveness of products produced in the country.

The impact of the mentioned factors on the ruble on Monday will be approximately the same. Closer to the end of the five-day working week, analysts expect some weakening of the ruble.

— Payment of income tax, relatively expensive oil and dollar weakness provoked by the head of the US Treasury will allow the ruble to demonstrate stability at the “premiere” session of the week. On the other hand, the publication of a report on sanctions will reduce turnover on the domestic market, warn Globex Bank experts.

— In the coming week, the growth potential of the domestic currency will be limited by data on new sanctions. A block of data on the business activity index and GDP released in the United States may support the dollar. The announcement of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, announced for Wednesday, is unlikely to have an impact on the rate. In general, we are focusing on the range of ₽56.00-57.00/USD,” explained currency strategists at SMP Bank.

— This week, the ruble may find itself in a very vulnerable position due to the US sanctions report and a new wave of tightening sanctions against the Russian Federation (a corresponding decision may be made by Trump as early as Tuesday). The focus of global investors will be US labor market data, the Federal Reserve meeting and the release of leading statistics on economic forecasts. The combination of these factors will support the dollar, believes B&N Bank.

— The news background from the United States may create conditions for corrective growth of the USD, which will create pressure on the ruble and other “developing” currencies. The main benchmarks for the dollar for the week so far seem to be ₽56.00-57.00, commented analysts at Nordea Bank.

— If, despite forecasts, the US sanctions rhetoric is harsh, foreign investors may begin selling Russian assets. In such a scenario, the position of the ruble will deteriorate significantly, warn Russian Standard bankers.

U.S. dollar is the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code is USD. Denoted by $. 1 dollar is equal to 100 cents. The denominations of banknotes in circulation are: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (a relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but have been no longer issued since 1945, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation because They were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.

Traditionally, the obverse of the US dollar features images of presidents and political figures of the United States. On modern banknotes these are Benjamin Franklin - 100 dollars, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 bill has a special design on the back consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and kept in Washington.

It is believed that to counteract the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. Moreover, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.

The first decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit was introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. Moreover, each time, as a result of a change in the price ratio of two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.

In 1900, the gold standard law was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued for the first time by 41% as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold now costs $35.

At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were pegged to the American one. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became the main creditor of Europe. Thus, the US dollar became the world's currency of account and took its place in the reserves of central banks.

However, by 1960, chronic US budget deficits led to the fact that the number of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally stopped after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one was created - the Jamaican currency system, which finally legitimized the abandonment of gold backing of currencies.

The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put American manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, it was possible to actually halve the exchange rate against the Japanese yen, pound and German mark.

In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose in price by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when the dollar weakened significantly against the Japanese yen - from 136 to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in the markets of developing countries, including the default in Russia.

1999-2001 - a period of renewed strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which lowered interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of the single European currency, into which the central banks of many creditor countries of the United States transferred part of their reserves.

For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.

Despite competition with the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading place in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base one for payments through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro predominates.

The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions take place through this currency and basic quotes are set.

Experts' opinions regarding the future of the dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge foreign debt of the United States, the largest in the world. As of the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, almost twice as fast as China, which is in second position. In addition, the high dollar exchange rate is facilitated by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in American currency and during crises seek to transfer them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.

This page collects information from various sources attempting to predict the dollar's exchange rate for the foreseeable future. Take this no more seriously than a horoscope: the only reliable knowledge that can be obtained by delving into such predictions is that it is simply impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate.

Unfortunately, forecasts are not available at this time.

Forecast on the relationship between oil and the ruble exchange rate

There is an opinion that the exchange rate of the dollar or euro (or rather, the exchange rate or strength of the ruble as a currency) is closely related to the price of oil. Some minds look at the oil price chart and try to predict the rise or fall of the national currency based on the corresponding movements in the prices of this energy carrier.

We analyze quotes for both in real time and publish here simple odds that reflect the presence or absence of a linear correlation between them.

Pearson ratio chart for the last 30 days: oil and dollar

Pearson coefficient = 0.1602

There is no correlation at this time.

If the Pearson coefficient in absolute value tends to unity, and the points on the graph above tend to line up in a diagonal line, then we can judge the presence of a linear correlation in the interval under consideration. Below we provide a graph of the monthly history of these odds.

History of fluctuations in the Pearson coefficient over the past year

It can be seen that over time the correlation may appear stronger, or it may disappear or even be reversed. So oil is just one of the factors and not always very significant.

In summary, there is no exact way to predict the dollar exchange rate. On the Internet you can unearth more complex calculations, articles and even books on this topic. Traders in the foreign exchange markets use their models, trained using machine learning, a bunch of factors tested in forex battles. But they all work only under certain conditions and for certain purposes. At the layman's level, they are almost useless.

There are also a lot of sites on the Internet with outright trash. I saw a resource with many tables with forecasts for a week, month, year - any period. By all indications, all these tables are simply generated by random numbers. And even in this form, this analysis is still suitable for the average person. Because no one knows the future and everyone makes mistakes.